Balls, Sticks, & Stuff | Phillies, Eagles, golf and other matters of great importance...

Analysis Chase Utley's High School Shot via Google Earth

A few days ago Paul Hagen of the Daily News profiled Chase Utley's hitting prowess -- a "This is Your Life" of his hitting stroke.

In the article, a story is recounted about when Utley, as a high school player, hit a ball over the scoreboard in right-center field at Long Beach State's Blair Field.  When I read that, I immediately thought of when I went to Google Earth and measured the length of twelve-year old Ryan Howard's prodigious shot at Red Lobster.

A quick Google search locates Blair Field and for some reason, the aforementioned scoreboard is not there, but there is one in left-center field.  Either way, the field is fairly symmetric and it would take quite a bomb to carry over a scoreboard.

My guess?  420 feet.

Not as impressive as Howard's feat as a pre-teen, but still pretty darn good.

 

View Larger Map

Howard Misses Pitches and the Point

I guess Adam Eaton being unable to find the world's largest strikezone last night still has me in a bad mood, because I'm about to take things out on Ryan Howard.

From Ryan Howard, via Scott Lauber at The News Journal:

"To me, it's all about seeing the ball and having good at-bats," Howard said. "To everyone else, it's about results. That's how it is in the media and everywhere else. So that's that. People see what they want to see. There's a lot of stuff that you don't see, other stuff that's going on. I try to do what I can to help the team win in whatever ways I can."

 

OK, I believe Ryan is probably being a good teammate and helping out in some small way behnd the scenes.  And I do believe that Ryan is trying the proverbial 110% at the plate, but for him to say we should only judge him on the quality of his at bats... well... that isn't going to make him happy either.

According to Fangraphs.com, Howard swings at 20% of the pitches he sees outside of the strikezone, and when he swings at one within the strikezone, he misses 25% of the time.  In comparison, Pat Burrell only swings at 13% of pitches out of the zone and Chase Utley misses on swings at pitches within the strikezone only 8% of the time.

Now, that is comparing Howard to two of the hottest hitters in all of baseball, but you can't tell me that after watching Howard flail away all spring that he is "seeing the ball" the way he wants us to believe.

Fine Ryan, we'll judge you on quality of at-bats, not results, just be careful, you might get what you asked for.

Cole Hamels the Latest to Fail to Understand the Concept of a Closed Shop Union [Updated]

Perhaps I would hum a different tune if I were in their shoes, but from where I sit, I am so sick and tired of young professional baseball players complaining of how much money they are making.

Look Cole, Prince, Ryan, Russell, etc., there are rules in place for how much money you are going to make.  The frustration you express at your team's ownership would be much better directed at your union leaders, the ones reaping the benefits of the seniority system the union prefers to have.

-----------------

Update:  The Inqy's Jim Salisbury sees it pretty much the same way:

There's nothing unfair about this deal. It's not a "low blow," as Hamels so foolishly and naively called it. It is completely in line with the way the system works for players not yet eligible for salary arbitration, and, lest we forget, the players sign off on this system every time they OK a new labor agreement.

What Can We Learn from Ryan Howard's Arbitration Decision?

Ryan Howard won his arbitration case with/against the Phillies.  The $10 million awarded to him is tied for the largest amount ever awarded to a player in arbitration.

To be honest, I thought the Phillies had a pretty good case, given the rules of MLB's collective bargaining agreement concerning service time, etc.  But obviously the arbiters saw things differently, considering matters I didn't think they would.

For instance, when Tal Smith was hired by the Phillies, I thought that meant the arbiters would be swayed by sabermetric thinking.  Such a mind-set would mean that Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, two players most often used as comparables, stacked up better than Howard and therefore, the $7 million the Phillies offered was closer to correct.

But here's where Howard probably won his case:  star-power.  Consider Subsection 12 of Article IV, Section F, which lays out the admissible in an arbitration hearing [hat tip: One Chair]:

"the quality of the player's contribution to his club during the past season... This includes - but is not limited to - his overall on-field performance, his leadership abilities, and his public appeal..."

Howard is everywhere.  He has a major endorsement deals with Subway and Adidas and graces the cover of video games and magazines.  And don't forget, locally, the Phillies market the heck out of him too.

He's likable, and he's someone you feel perfectly fine letting your kids look up to.  As Phillies fans, we should feel lucky to have him.  I know I do.

Now, let's hope that if or when Cole Hamels comes to arbitration, the three-person panel that decides his salary has never heard of colehamelsfacts.com.

Pitchin' a Podcast

Joe Aiello and Brandon Rosage of Most Valuable Network's The Pitch interviewed yours truly tonight about the Phillies and the upcoming season.  While the whiskey family hasn't had the same effect on my pipes as it did for Harry Kalas, I think it's still worth a listen.  Click here for the mp3/podcast.

Oh, and if that's not enough to perk your tympanic membranes, then perhaps you'll be interested to hear who I'd prefer come to bat for my team in the bottom of the ninth, two outs, bases loaded, tie game... Ryan Howard or a midget.

[No word on what the midget is asking for in arbitration.]

What's $3 Million Among Friends?

On Friday, the Phillies and Ryan Howard's representatives exchanged salary-arbitration figures.  The Phillies, who, according to assistant general manager Ruben Amaro, "like to pay players what they are worth," would like to pay Howard $7 million dollar is 2008, equivalent to the $7 million Albert Pujols was offered in arbitration for the 2004 season, which is still the largest amount offered by any team to any first-time arbitration-eligible player.  On the other hand, Howard and his people think $10 million sounds much better, an amount that would be the highest amount ever paid through arbitration.

The best thing that can happen for both sides is if they reach a deal before the arbitration hearing next month.  Last year, contract negotiations between Howard and the Phillies had a hint of contention, so the long-term relationship won't be helped any if the Phillies have to go into a conference room and, in front of Howard, lay out all the reasons why he's not worth what he wants.

As an aside... When considering arbitration cases, service-time is everything, so we can't compare Howard to players who have reached free agency, and as a matter of fact, even though we are comparing Pujols and Cabrera to Howard, we can't even compare their entire careers.   Only their pre-arbitration years.

If you've ever purchased or sold a house, one of the first things you do is look at "the comps" -- the comparables -- in the neighborhood.  What did similar houses in the immediate surrounding area in the not too distant past sell for?  You use that information to determine the proper asking price.

Just as you wouldn't compare a 6-bedroom mansion in Villanova to a 6-room rowhouse in Queen Village, you can't compare Ryan Howard the "super two" to Torii Hunter the free agent.

You have to hand it to Amaro, he's saying all the right things, trying to diffuse the situation as much as possible, because the knee-jerk reaction is to label the Phillies cheap.  But what gives his statements some credibility is that $7 million is probably a pretty fair figure.

Besides Pujols, another logical comparison to Howard is Miguel Cabrera, who was eligible for arbitration for the first time a year ago and was awarded $7.4 million.

The career statistics of Howard, Cabrera and Pujols  prior to their first year of arbitration:

         PA   BA    OBP   SLG  HR   RBI 
Pujols  2036 .334  .412  .613  114  381
Howard  1742 .291  .397  .610  129  353
Cabrera 2392 .311  .384  .535  104  404

When you compare Howard to Pujols and consider other factors such as Pujols' far superior defense on the one hand and several years of inflation since 2004 on the other, you don't reach the conclusion that the Phillies are low-balling Howard.  It seems about right.  As for the comparison to Cabrera, the effect of inflation is negligible because just one season has passed, but statistically, it does appear as if $7 million might be a little low, though it is difficult to determine because of the extreme differences in the way Citizens Bank Park plays versus Dolphin Stadium.

Even though it probably won't be used in the arbitration hearing, if it comes to that, OPS+ is a statistic we can use to help us level out the playing field so to speak, since park factors are taken into consideration.  Below are the best pre-arbitration full seasons Howard, Cabrera, and Pujols had by OPS+:

Player  OPS+ Year
Pujols  187  2003
Howard  167  2006
Cabrera 159  2006
Pujols  157  2001
Pujols  151  2002
Cabrera 151  2005
Howard  144  2007
Cabrera 130  2004

Of the eight seasons, Howard's 2006 was the second best, second only to Pujols' absurd 2003. But Howard's other full season, 2007 ranks well behind all of Pujols' and two of Cabrera's three.

Again, you have to conclude that if the Phillies are low-balling Howard, it can't be by very much.  As a matter of fact, you have to give them some credit for doing their homework.  If the arbiters get the chance to do theirs, Howard might just have to settle for the measly $7 million.

-----------------

Am I the only one that sees it this way?  Some differing viewpoints...

Shallow Center... Baseball Musings... Philly.com poll... phillyBurbs.com.

Ryan Howard!

Update:  Flickr.com user "dannigirl" had a great view of RyHo's homer.  In sequence, first, second, third, fourth.

Movin' Burrell on Up

Before this Phillies season started, all anyone could talk about was how great the Phillies rotation would be with Freddy Garcia and what would be the best way to construct the lineup to get the most protection for Ryan Howard. The first point is still a little to painful to discuss, but given the present situation with Chase Utley on the disabled list, it is reasonable to resume the second discussion.

At the time of Utley's injury, Howard said, "Teams probably are not going to give me anything to hit even more now... It's definitely going to be hard with him not being here, the way he works pitchers and has such good ABs. It's a tough blow for us."  Almost talking himself into a slump, Howard has hit just .182 with no home runs and 2 RBI since then.

Back in the spring, when the discussion of lineup protection was all the rage, I crunched some numbers and found that it was actually much more important as to who batted in front of Howard than who batted behind him.  In other words, having somebody on first base was beneficial to Howard seeing more strikes.  Given that piece of information, and given Beerleaguer's distaste for Pat Burrell's .423 OBP to continue to languish with scuffling hitters such as Wes Helms, Abraham Nunez and Carlos Ruiz behind him, perhaps the Phillies should seriously consider moving Pat Burrell to the third slot in the lineup.

Taking a quick straw poll between Beerleaguer, Tom Goodman, and myself, a lineup to consider might look something like this:

1. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2. Tadahito Iguchi, 2B
3. Pat Burrell, LF
4. Ryan Howard, 1B
5. Aaron Rowand, CF
6. Greg Dobbs, 3B
7. Chris Coste/Carlos Ruiz, C
8. Jayson Werth/Chris Roberson, RF
9. Pitcher, naturally

Perhaps Dobbs could be inserted into the second slot, depending upon the day's opposing pitcher.  Either way, you are maximizing the on-base potential both ahead of and behind Howard in the lineup.  Additionally, Rollins should return to the leadoff slot because without Shane Victorino or Michael Bourn, both also disabled, there is no one else on the roster than can fill that role effectively.  No one.

What Not to Wear

[hat tip]

Which Do You Want First?

The good news or the bad news?

If you like good news first, Chris Coste has been promoted to the Phillies from Ottawa.  If you like to get bad news last, then I can tell you that Ryan Howard has been placed on the disabled list.

When I read this morning that blood was collecting in Howard's quad, I figured a stint on the DL was right around the corner.

Mike Radano has more.