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Initially, news of Ryan Howard's mega-millions-jackpot contract extension brought considerable concern to those hoping the Phillies would not find the deal to be an albatross in three or four years.
A day or two later and there is one thing we now know for sure regarding the agreement: it's not a clear-cut black-or-white issue.
I stand by everything I wrote about it Monday evening, but there are a few things I've read since then that have me feeling a little less pessimistic about it. One, former Phillies-blogger and current analyst/writer at Baseball Prospectus Matt Swartz published a lengthy analysis on Tuesday. Essentially, his take is: "Lets wait and see." [What?!? You mean we shouldn't jump to steadfast, concrete conclusions within 24 hours?!? First the NFL Draft and now this too?!?!]
I encourage you to read the entire treatise, but two main points stood out for me. First, according to Swartz, history has shown that contract extensions typically turn out much better than free-agent contracts. Why? Because a team handing out a contract extension has a much better sense of how the player handles his craft and career than a would-be suitor does. In other words, maybe the Red Sox, based on familiarity, knew what they were doing twelve years ago when they let Mo Vaughn walk than the Angels did.
Secondly, Swartz suggests that maybe Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder are the best comps for Ryan Howard as baseball-reference.com thinks. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system tends to think players like Jim Thome and Willie Stargell are better comps. An excerpt from behind the BP.com pay-wall:
...for the most part, the players who aged better were the ones who hit more home runs to the opposite field. On the other hand, pull-happy hitters like Fielder and Jose Canseco (who was on last year’s list of Howard comparables) fell apart more quickly. Howard’s batted-ball profile actually looks a lot like Thome’s. That is a good sign, as Thome continued to rack up four- and five-win seasons through most of his mid-30s. If this is what happens to Howard, the deal will look like a major success.
Interesting.
Furthermore, one way Howard might be able to stave off decline is to improve his pitch recognition. That way, even if he does experience a decline in his physical power, hopefully he can make up for it by picking up on the low and away slider just a tad better. Possibly a pipe-dream, but hey, sometimes pipes come true.
Aside from Swartz' article, there is another angle to look at in regards to Howard's comparisons. The fedora'd Dash Treyhorn at TheFightins.com brought up a good point as well:
The bulk of players on that that list played in an era where performance enhancing drugs were the norm. And as such, their bodies broke down as a result of usage, or because they stopped using.
As we've all said, this is quite a gamble on the part of the Phillies to commit to a player for that long and that far into his late-thirties. But as some smart people have pointed out, there are, in fact, details that could work in the Phillies favor.
On the West Wing, it wasn't uncommon for a fictional White House staffer to ask another one in a moment of memory-lapse, "Hey, tell me, what's our official position on Issue XYZ?" In that vein, I'd like to revise The Official BS&S.com Position on the Ryan Howard Contract Extension: If salaries inflate at rates we've seen in the past, which is quite likely, and if Ryan Howard can prevent decline in his production, then the contract will work out well for the Philadelphia Phillies, Ryan Howard and the fans of both parties."
Your thoughts?
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In other news, Jimmy Ballscribe at CSNPhilly.com is reporting that Jayson Werth's agent, Jeff Borris is describing their efforts with the Phillies on a contract extension to be "at an impasse."
Again, cause for concern. Not because things are at an impasse, because undoubtedly, there were moments when discussions with the Ryan Howard camp were at an impasse as well. Rather, the issue here is that the Phillies don't like these types of negotiations to become public. Borris is walking a fine line.
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