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Phillies Coaching Staff Needs to Bear Responsibility for Offensive Slide

There's no doubting the Phillies have been beset with injuries. On the offensive side, Chase Utley is out, Placido Polanco is out. We get that. But at this point in time, but they aren't the only people on the team that can hit. Jimmy Rollins is back and there's Shane Victorino, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez and Jayson Werth.

 A lineup of those players, even considering the losses of Utley and Polanco should be able to score runs. Perhaps not in droves as we've come to expect, but take a look at the career OPS+ of these players. No, they do not make up a Murderer's Row, but there is certainly at least collectively with the bottom portion of the lineup, enough firepower there to win a game that your pitching staff holds the opposition, the team you are trying to catch in the standings to 3 runs.

Several weeks ago when the offensive malaise began, I remember reading how Charlie Manuel and Milt Thompson were frustrated that the players were not taking into game situations what they had been instructed and coached to do prior to the games. At the time, I remember raising an eyebrow and wondering about the players. But now, weeks and weeks later, whether it is the players' faults or not, this coaching staff needs to step it up and figure out a way to get this team hitting again. This just isn't cutting it.

From the Offense to the Defense to the Weather, THAT is Phillies Baseball

It certainly seems as if the Fightins have climbed out of their month-long malaise. They've won 4 of their last 5 at the expense of top-tier teams like the Red Sox, Yankees and Twins. Last night's 9-5 win over the Twins was powered by Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

Howard, who began to show life Wednesday night with a homer in New York, had two home runs, a double and a triple against the Twins pitching staff while Utley, denying rumors of a knee injury did the talking with his bat and glove -- a single, a homer, and a fantastic diving play to his left in the field. Perhaps Davy Lopes should have played doctor a bit sooner?

With the resurgent Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay set to pitch over the weekend, the Phillies are set up to tack on a few more wins.

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A word about Scott Mathieson: Please, do not use the outcome of his 9th inning appearance last evening to cloud your judgement of his performance. He threw mid-to upper-90's fast balls for strikes. Unfortunately, two batters managed to get seeing-eye singles through the infield on a night when the Phillies defense was superb. Of the three hits Mathieson gave up, only one was struck well. I'm anxious to see how he does in his next appearances.

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Below is a photo gallery from the gorgeous evening spent in South Philly [hover mouse over photo for a description]:

Upon Further Review: There are Scenarios in Which the Ryan Howard Contract Does Not Cripple the Phillies for Eternity

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Initially, news of Ryan Howard's mega-millions-jackpot contract extension brought considerable concern to those hoping the Phillies would not find the deal to be an albatross in three or four years.

A day or two later and there is one thing we now know for sure regarding the agreement: it's not a clear-cut black-or-white issue.

I stand by everything I wrote about it Monday evening, but there are a few things I've read since then that have me feeling a little less pessimistic about it.  One, former Phillies-blogger and current analyst/writer at Baseball Prospectus Matt Swartz published a lengthy analysis on Tuesday. Essentially, his take is: "Lets wait and see." [What?!? You mean we shouldn't jump to steadfast, concrete conclusions within 24 hours?!? First the NFL Draft and now this too?!?!]

I encourage you to read the entire treatise, but two main points stood out for me. First, according to Swartz, history has shown that contract extensions typically turn out much better than free-agent contracts.  Why? Because a team handing out a contract extension has a much better sense of how the player handles his craft and career than a would-be suitor does. In other words, maybe the Red Sox, based on familiarity, knew what they were doing twelve years ago when they let Mo Vaughn walk than the Angels did.

Secondly, Swartz suggests that maybe Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder are the best comps for Ryan Howard as baseball-reference.com thinks.  Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system tends to think players like Jim Thome and Willie Stargell are better comps. An excerpt from behind the BP.com pay-wall:

...for the most part, the players who aged better were the ones who hit more home runs to the opposite field. On the other hand, pull-happy hitters like Fielder and Jose Canseco (who was on last year’s list of Howard comparables) fell apart more quickly. Howard’s batted-ball profile actually looks a lot like Thome’s. That is a good sign, as Thome continued to rack up four- and five-win seasons through most of his mid-30s. If this is what happens to Howard, the deal will look like a major success.

Interesting.

Furthermore, one way Howard might be able to stave off decline is to improve his pitch recognition.  That way, even if he does experience a decline in his physical power, hopefully he can make up for it by picking up on the low and away slider just a tad better. Possibly a pipe-dream, but hey, sometimes pipes come true.

Aside from Swartz' article, there is another angle to look at in regards to Howard's comparisons. The fedora'd Dash Treyhorn at TheFightins.com brought up a good point as well:

The bulk of players on that that list played in an era where performance enhancing drugs were the norm. And as such, their bodies broke down as a result of usage, or because they stopped using.

As we've all said, this is quite a gamble on the part of the Phillies to commit to a player for that long and that far into his late-thirties. But as some smart people have pointed out, there are, in fact, details that could work in the Phillies favor.

On the West Wing, it wasn't uncommon for a fictional White House staffer to ask another one in a moment of memory-lapse, "Hey, tell me, what's our official position on Issue XYZ?" In that vein, I'd like to revise The Official BS&S.com Position on the Ryan Howard Contract Extension: If salaries inflate at rates we've seen in the past, which is quite likely, and if Ryan Howard can prevent decline in his production, then the contract will work out well for the Philadelphia Phillies, Ryan Howard and the fans of both parties."

Your thoughts?

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Photo from fOTOGLIF

In other news, Jimmy Ballscribe at CSNPhilly.com is reporting that Jayson Werth's agent, Jeff Borris is describing their efforts with the Phillies on a contract extension to be "at an impasse."

Again, cause for concern. Not because things are at an impasse, because undoubtedly, there were moments when discussions with the Ryan Howard camp were at an impasse as well. Rather, the issue here is that the Phillies don't like these types of negotiations to become public. Borris is walking a fine line.

Watch Out Bro: Ryan Howard Inks Mega-Deal

Ryan Howard's current contract ends with the Phillies following the 2011 season.  Not wanting to become guilty of procrastination, Howard and the Phillies have agreed to a make-sure-you're-sitting-down 5-year, $125 million deal that begins in 2012. The deal also includes a club option for a sixth year and almost ensures Howard retires as a Phillie when he'll be 37 years old.

And that is the best part of this. Howard was found by the Phillies, developed by the Phillies and the two parties won a World Series together. He's a hard worker, a serious player with a ready sense of humor and his reputation off the field is unblemished. For the Story of Ryan Howard to be complete, he needs to retire here.  As it turns out, he wants to retire here, the Phillies want him to retire here and we want him to retire here.

So we've got that going for us, which is nice.

But once you get past the initial feel-good wave and you really start to examine the contract, things get a bit scary. Think about it, when Ryan Howard is in his mid/late-30's, he'll be getting paid like one of the best players in baseball when the chances of him actually being that type of player are slim. The recent history of baseball is littered with burly, limited-skill first-base types that haven't aged well. Take a look at Baseball Reference [dot com]; Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder, Richie Sexson, Tony Clark, and David Ortiz are some of the most comparable players to Howard. Not exactly a group of players that aged like a fine pinot noir.

To be fair, Willie McCovey and Mark McGwire are also on the list and also to be fair, Howard's waistline seems to be shrinking as his defense seems to be improving. Still, it's awfully hard to turn a blind eye to every thing else.

Look, it's not our money to spend, so what do we care if Ryan Howard is overpaid? Here's why: the Phillies aren't the Yankees, they can't spend their way out of previous mistakes in spending. If Howard's performance does in fact decline rapidly as so many others like him have, his contract will be an albatross that prevents the Phillies from filling the roster with talent outside the organization or retain the Domonic Browns of the world.

I sincerely hope I turn out to be wrong and the previous three paragraphs turn out to be bunk. But it's hard not to wonder if this lengthy contract doesn't shorten the Golden Age of Phillies Baseball that we are currently experiencing.

We Need to Go Back There Again

No, that's not a quote from Jack on Lost...

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Love this story Charlie Manuel told reporters about Ryan Howard {link}:

I talked to Ryan Howard right after Christmas,” Manuel said, “and the first thing he said is, ‘Chuck, we need to go back there again. We let an opportunity slip away. We have to win again in the next couple of years. We have to do that every year.’”

As a baseball fan, that is what you want to hear from the players on the team you root for.

He Came Down to the End of the Bench and Said...

That's the story according to Cliff Lee, who couldn't say enough about Ryan Howard's game-tying double. CSNPhilly.com has the video:

What a Whirlwind

Shane knocks one out... Clifton Phifer Lee paints the corners... Werth puts on his hulk hands and makes it 2-0... Raul pulls a mini-Holliday... Pete Happy swings at the first pitch [first pitch!?!?!]... Lee comes out for the 8th and gets into trouble, Madson and Ben Francisco in, Lee and Ibanez out... Fly to leeeft, BENNY BABY!!! Charlie's a genius until... Rockies knock around Madson, we're down two runs with only three outs left... Dobbs K's, Jimmy singles... Shane almost hits into a DP... Uts walks... The Big Piece doubles!... Shane almost misses third on the way home, Chase is chasing him, they both score and we're tied at 4!... Werth singles and The Big Piece rumbles home! 5-4 Fightin' Phillies!... Eyre and his loose bodies and sprained ankle come out for the bottom of the 9th... Two outs and two singles later, Charlie calls on Lidge to face Tulo... the Delaware Valley holds their breath... Struck him out!

This Probably Isn’t What Tom McCarthy has in Mind When He Promotes a Phillies Fantasy Camp with Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard

If you've watched a Phillies game recently, you've seen promos for the Phillies Fantasy Camp, where couch potatoes like you and me can go and play baseball with the Phillies in Clearwater [for a sum of money, of course]. Below is a video of one such fantasy camp.

After the jump, a behind-the-scenes/filming-of type video where Jimmy Rollins explains how to get shaving cream-pie out of someone's eyes without it burning.

One Day Boys and Girls, If You Eat Your Vegetables, You'll Grow Up to Be Big and Strong Like Ryan Howard

During the Phillies trip to the White House a few weeks ago, Ryan Howard filmed this wholesome video with White House chef Sam Kass.

[hat tip]

Game Thread: Your 2009 Philadelphia Phillies Begin Their Title Defense

Charlie Manuel has posted tonight's starting lineup:

6:59 PM: SS Jimmy Rollins, RF Jayson Werth, 2B Chase Utley, 1B Ryan Howard, LF Raul Ibanez, CF Shane Victorino, 3B Pedro Feliz, C Carlos Ruiz, RHP Brett Myers.

That's three lefties in a row against the Atlanta Braves' RHP Derek Lowe.

Don't forget, the game situation and win probability will update in the right-hand sidebar as the game goes along [the first few entries are from a game used for beta testing].

W.O.B. from a Former M.V.P.

Ryan Howard just lost someone's deposit. [Zo Zone]

Phillies, Howard Reach 3-Year Agreement

Over the course of the next three baseball seasons, the Philadelphia Phillies will pay Ryan Howard $54 million.

This Arbitration Thing is Quite a Racket

A Texas Rangers-centric blog, Lone Star Ball, has an interesting view on arbitration and uses Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn as an example [link/hat tip]:

Dunn is also a free agent, unlike Howard. Dunn can market himself to any team, and any team can sign him and pay him whatever they want to pay him, without regard to putting on a case for an arbitrator. And he's still unsigned, with one agent saying he won't get more than $5 million for one year, although Ken Rosenthal thinks Dunn could maybe get 2 years at $20-24 million.

Regardless, Dunn isn't going to come close to the $18 million for one year Howard is asking for, or even the $14 million the Phillies are offering, despite the fact that they are almost the same player (even down to the huge strikeout numbers). The market has spoken, and it has decided Dunn isn't worth the big bucks.

Is there any reason to believe the market would treat Ryan Howard any differently? If the Phillies had simply non-tendered Howard, would Howard get $18 million a year for 2009? Would he get an annual salary twice what Pat Burrell (2 years, $16 million) got from the Rays?

I do tend to think that as free agents, Howard would be valued above Dunn, but still, I'm not sure he'd pull down $18 million.

Interesting way of looking at it however.

Howard, Phillies Exchange Figures

Whoa.

Whoa.

The Phillies submitted $14 million to arbiters, while Howard submitted $18 million, the third largest figure in the 34-year history of arbitration figures.

Last season, the Phillies sumbitted $7 million to Howard's $10 million and lost, despite that fact that there was just as much to support their opinion as his.  This time around, the Phillies should have an even stronger case given that Howard's game has declined two years in a row.  Slugging average down.  On-base average down. BB/K ratio down. wOBA down.

But in the end, the arbiters appear to be people swayed more by the household name-type stats -- home runs and runs batted in.  Howard has oodles of those, so don't be surprised if he comes out on top again.

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Flying under the radar is the signing of starting pitcher Joe Blanton to a one-year, $5.475 million deal so as to, say it with me, avoid arbitration.

Ruben Amaro and his staff have sure had a busy week, I bet they wished they themselves were paid by the hour.  There's still a lot of work to do however.  Jayson Werth, Chad Durbin and of course Howard are still on the arbitration table.

Howard's case has no hope of getting done without a hearing, but it sure would be nice if the Phillies could get a two or three year deal done with Jayson Werth and a one or two year deal with Durbin.

Like it or Not, Campbell is Right

Every offseason, when baseball's big awards are announced -- MVP, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, Manager of the Year, etc. -- there is some hapless beat writer chastised to Bill Buckner-like levels for his voting preferences.  But then a day or two passes by and before you know it, said hapless beat writer has faded into obscurity (a fate Buckner could have only dreamed of before 2004).

Enter Rich Campbell of Fredricksburg, Va.'s Freelance-Star.  In case you haven't heard already, Campbell is the paper's beat writer for the Washington Nationals and he's guilty of leaving Ryan Howard off of his National League MVP ballot entirely.  It's causing a bit of a stir, and as stirs often do, it's spawning conspiracy theories such as the one that says that Campbell and Mark Zuckerman, Nats beat writer for the Washington Times who placed Howard tenth on his ballot, were in cahoots.

But here's a scenario no one is considering:  Campbell and Zuckerman are probably correct in their evaluation of Howard's season.

Each of the writers recently posted the reasons behind their votes on their newspapers' respective websites.  Zuckerman went all 1999 and pointed out that Howard's OPS was good for only 14th in the National League.  Campbell does the almost unthinkable, exposes the likelihood he will be accused of spending significant time in his mother's basement -- the accusation leveled at anyone who is open-minded towards new ideas [Columbus was accused of spending too much time in his mother's basement before he sailed halfway around the world, you can look it up] -- and cites statistics such as VORP, OPS+, and net baserunning gain as detriments to Howard's overall performance.

Look, you can't ignore Howard's league-leading home run and runs batted in totals, that would be analagous to Buddy Ryan's infamous "all he does is score touchdowns" comment about Chris Carter.  But by the same token, you also have to look at what Howard did in other at-bats and plate appearances, and the fact of the matter is, Howard wasn't that great in those situations.  He hurt the Phillies defense and in the too-rare occasions when he was on the basepaths for anything other than a home run trot, he slowed the offense down.

Next season will be interesting to watch.  Will Howard improve to something similar to his days as good hitter, great power hitter, passable fielder or will he continue down the road he went down in 2008, guessing at pitches rather than identifying them and woefully whiffing all too often?

One Down...

...Three to go.

The Phillies didn't play their best baseball tonight.  There were some fielding miscues and questionable at-bats and a lot of runners left on base, but by the same token, the Rays looked like they were off of their usual game a bit too.  Fortunately, a two-run home run by Chase Utley and few double plays behind Cole Hamels made all the difference.

A follow up to the scouting report on Scott Kazmir:  I wondered earlier today how Kazmir would approach Ryan Howard, whether he would go with his usual steady diet of fastballs or throw breaking pitches the way every other pitcher has approached Howard.  As it turns out, he mixed in more breaking balls than he did with other hitters, but still, he predominantly stuck with fastballs and had success.

Not to take anything away from Kazmir or the Rays bullpen, but Howard is lost right now.  He's swinging at breaking balls low and away, but laying off of fastballs.

Perhaps the worst play of the night however was by whoever is running Comcast in Delaware.  My brother tells me that in the final at-bat of the game, the screen went blank and there was a very important announcement:  "This is a test of the emergency broadcast system..."

Finally, in a post-game interview, Cole Hamels was asked by Comcast's Leslie Gudel where he gets his composure, particularly at such a young age.  Hamels gave a lot of credit to Jamie Moyer's tutelege.  Quite a statement.

More tomorrow.

Three to go, three to go.

Top of the Fifth

Rafael Furcal whiffs with his glove on a groundball by Pat Burrell, then kicks it into left field, and then throws wide of Russell Martin at home as Utley scores from second!  Phillies 4, Dodgers 0.

The grounder was most likely a double play ball for Greg Maddux with Ryan Howard "running" to second and Burrell "running" to first.  So rather than being out of the inning unscathed, the Dodgers fall further behind.

To make matters even worse, another ground ball, this one off the bat of Carlos Ruiz, heads Furcal's way and though he fields it cleanly, he can't throw a strike to James Loney at first.  Ryan Howard scores from third on the play.  Phillies 5, Dodgers 0.