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The One That Got Away and the One That's Coming Back

There seems to be a lot of hand-wringing as of late over Pat Gillick including Gavin Floyd in the trade with the Chicago White Sox that sent Freddy Garcia to the Phillies.

In case you've missed it, Floyd has flirted on two occasions with no-hitters in the first six weeks or so of this season and the 25-year old has a 173 ERA+.  Given the struggles of Adam Eaton, fans are wishing Floyd was still in the fold.

The thing is, Gavin Floyd would not be putting up those kind of numbers here in Philadelphia.  His problems were strictly mental and somehow, someway, pitching here got in his head.  Was it the demanding fans?  Was it the small ballpark?  Who knows, but anyone who saw him pitch in red pinstripes should know he wasn't going to have success here.

No, the issue shouldn't be that Gillick traded Gavin Floyd, if anything, fans should still be upset over the fact that Gillick did not demand a physical of Freddy Garcia before the deal was finalized.

Tell me Mr. Gillick, with all do respect, when you bought your houses in Seattle and Toronto, did you get an inspection done first or did you just take them "as is"?

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It appears as if sometime during this weekend's series with the Giants in San Francisco, the Phils will activate Jimmy Rollins from the disabled list.  He hasn't started a game for the team since April 8th, over a month ago, and the Phillies sure could use him.

At 20-16, the Fightin's have done just fine without Rollins, but it's been on the backs of Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Jayson Werth and their hot bats.  All three have begun to cool off a bit -- as expected, no one could keep up that torrid pace forever -- and having Jimmy back will be a shot in the arm.

Jimmy and his Rolled Ankle to the DL

Link: Rollins Finally Lands on DL | Philadelphia Inquirer | 04/20/2008.

This is absurd.  It's this type of stuff that makes Phillies fans question whether management knows what they are doing or not.  Now in many cases, when head-scratching decisions are made, I always try and assume that there is information that we as fans are just not privy to.

But in the case of Rollins, I think everything is right there in front of us.  Rollins rolled his ankle on April 8th, hasn't been able to start since, we're told its day-to-day, that he his getting close...  Then he pinch-hits and we are told he's "getting close", but not there yet.  Then has an MRI, but we are told it is still day-to-day.

Yeah. Right.

Here's the kicker: had Rollins been placed on the disabled list on, lets say, April 10, which is two days after he injured his ankle and the powers-that-be had enough time to know what they were dealing with, then he would be eligible to come off the disabled list on April 25th, which is five days from now.  But by pussy-footing around with the ankle, now the earliest Rollins can return is May 5th.  Which will mean Rollins will have gone nearly a month without starting a game.

Meanwhile, the offense languishes in station-to-station drudgery.

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Tonight, Adam Eaton will try and help to snap the four-game skid the Phillies against the Mets.  Eaton has a 101 ERA+ so far this season, which is miraculous given his 73 ERA+ last season.  When asked what the difference between this year and last year, Eaton had this to say:

 

"It's just a matter of being healthy; this time last year, I wasn't healthy, and now I am."

Oh so he was injured this time last year?  No one thought it would be a good idea to send him to the disabled-list early on rather than cause problems that lingered throughout the season?  Anyone seeing a pattern here?

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In the last year, we have seen one injury after another mishandled by the Phillies.  Freddy Garcia was not given a physical before the Phillies traded for him and in doing so, prospects and $10 million was wasted.  Adam Eaton's injuries were not properly taken care of in April last year and it nearly cost the Phillies their first playoff berth in 15 years.  At the same time, Ryan Howard was playing on an injury to his leg that eventually sent him to the disabled list after a poor April. Injuries to Brett Myers and Ryan Madson later in the season ended up costing a significantly greater amount of playing time missed than originally thought would be the case for muscle injuries.

This season it's Jimmy Rollins.  Who else is injured?

At this point I don't think you can ignore the fact that the medical and training staff in not taking care of things they way should.  Perhaps they are dropping the ball or perhaps they are not getting the cooperation they need from players and management on the recommendations they make.

But if the Phillies miss the playoffs this season by a game or two this season, one of the first places you can point a finger is the way Jimmy Rollins injury was handled.

The Doug Glanville Perspective

Before names were named in baseball's steroid scandal, if someone came up to you and said Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Jose Canseco were cheaters, you would probably have stopped and thought about it before concluding, "yeah, I can see that."

Given their personalities, it isn't hard to imagine how they might do such a thing.  But on the other hand, if someone told you back then that Mark McGwire, David Bell and Andy Pettitte -- among others -- were cheaters, disbelief would probably be your first reaction.  They just don't seem like the type.

But in an Op-Ed piece in yesterday's New York Times, former Phillie Doug Glanville, who says he did not use performance-enhancing drugs and doesn't seem like the type who would either, explained how any player might be tempted to use them.  He writes:

There is a tipping point in a player’s career where he goes from chasing the dream to running from a nightmare. At that point, ambition is replaced with anxiety, passion is replaced with survival. It is a downhill run and it spares no one.

[...]

We’re scared of failure, aging, vulnerability, leaving too soon, being passed up — and in the quest to conquer these fears, we are inspired by those who do whatever it takes to rise above and beat these odds. We call it “drive” or “ambition,” but when doing “whatever it takes” leads us down the wrong road, it can erode our humanity. The game ends up playing us.

As you would expect from Glanville, the entire article is well-written, and he even mentions the advice he received from a sage rookie by the name of Jimmy Rollins.

If you are a baseball fan struggling with how to make sense of the steroid-era [aren't we all?], this article is well-worth your time. 

Link: In Baseball, Fear Bats at the Top of the Order - New York Times.

The Transformation of Jimmy Rollins

Update:  MVP! MVP!

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On August 23, 2005, Jimmy Rollins career took on quite a transformation, almost as if someone had flipped a switch.  The double he recorded in the ninth inning of that game against the Giants' Brian Cooper was the start of a 38-game hit streak that would carry into the following season.

Since the hit streak started, Rollins has played in 356 games and it is quite interesting to compare his performance in those games to his performance in the 356 games leading up to the streak (June 28, 2003 to August 22, 2005):

         AVG   OBP   SLG   R  HR   RBI  SB%
Before  .273  .329  .415  237  27  133  78
After   .296  .350  .515  301  58  199  89

Except for the confidence and infectious smile, it's almost like a different player.  The light went on over two years ago and it has burned brightly ever since.  His plate discipline improved, his power increased, and he became even more savvy on the base paths and efficient in the field.

In a little over half an hour, we will find out if Rollins is the recipient of the 2007 National League Most Valuable Player Award.  Stay tuned.

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[photo by getty images/phillies.com; statistics provided by the day by day database]

Au Leather

Know your periodic elements.

Anyway, The Phillies announced that Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand were awarded Rawlings Gold Gloves.

Congratulations Jimmy and Aaron, now you are just as good defensively as Bobby Abreu.

Sorry, that's more of a shot at the degree to which the Gold Glove awards identify good defenders than the skills of Rollins and Rowand.  As a matter of fact, in the case of Rollins and Rowand, it looks as if the awards were at least somewhat justified.

Baseball Info Solutions' Plus/Minus statistic is one of the best for evaluating defense, and Jimmy ranked among the leaders at shortstop.  During the course of the season, according to Plus/Minus, Jimmy made 7 more plays than the average shortstop in 2007.  While Rowand was not among the leaders at center field in 2007, he is one of the better center fielders in the last few years.  Plus/Minus ranks Rowand among the leaders from 2005-2007.

[Keep an eye out in the coming weeks for David Pinto's PMR ratings.  Published at Baseball Musings, it is one of the most comprehensive statistics we have and, what's more, it's free to you and me.  PMR will help us better understand where Rowand, Rollins, and the rest of the Phillies rank.]

Rollins is not the only Phillie to appear on the Plus/Mins rankings in 2007.  Chase Utley tied for first among second basemen and Shane Victorino was one of the better right fielders.  On the other hand, for kicks, Plus/Minus "trailers" are also published.  Pat Burrell was one of the worst left fielders.

By the way, Bobby was one of the worst right fielders.

Letting it Sink In

Photo with permission from Laura Perlberger

 

Perhaps snowballs really would be able to survive in hell.  After all, the chances you would give one of those icy spheres was about the same most of us gave the Phillies of making the playoffs not too long ago.  As a matter of fact, as of September 12th, Baseball Prospectus estimated that the odds of the Mets losing the NL East were 500-1.

At some point, even the most optimistic of fans had to doubt the Phillies.  Injuries, roster flaws and -- most significantly -- history, where not on the their side.  It all just seemed too much, and being human, we put our defense mechanisms up and resigned ourselves to defeat at least one time or another.  Heck, even though they would never admit it, nor should they, there had to be a time when individually, privately, the Phillies themselves suspected it might not happen.

But the most important thing is that when it counted most, in the last two weeks of September, when they were down seven games in the standings to the Mets on September 12th, they didn't give up.  The Phillies led the league with nearly 50 come-from-behind victories.  They never gave up.  Never. 

When it mattered most, on the final day, native son Jamie Moyer allowed just one unearned run, nearly 27 years to the day he went to the Phillies World Series parade.  When it mattered most, Jimmy Rollins willed his way around the basepaths to score runs and drive in teammates the way Jack Nicklaus willed in side-hill five-footers at Augusta.

New Yorkers will remember 2007 as the year the Mets collapsed the way few others ever have in the history in baseball.  True, they folded, but the Phillies had plenty of reason to fold long before in the season, but instead, they won 13 of their last 17 games and seized the NL East season title.

Now, it's on to the postseason, and, lets just say that the Phillies lose the first two games of the divisional series.  Will you count them out?  After what we've just seen, you'd be a fool to do so.

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Ever since Cap Anson began rotating his pitchers in the 1880's, baseball discussions have gone on about how much of an effect managers have on their teams.  It's impossible to quantify, but if you can point to one manager in baseball this year that had his players ready to play every day better than Charles Fuqua Manuel in the face of never-ending adversity, I'll buy you the beverage of your choice.

Along those lines, was anyone in baseball ready to play everyday more than Jimmy Rollins?  He played in all but 17 innings this season and accomplished historic statistical totals at the plate and played a very efficient shortstop, the most difficult position of those facing the same direction as the pitcher.

Manuel and Rollins deserve Manager of the Year and Most Valuable Player.

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Nomination for quote of the day on Sunday comes from The Missus during the late innings: "I've never seen so many smiling Philadelphians."

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While the Phillies celebrate and rest on Monday, the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres will play an extra game to decide the Wild Card after tying during the regular season.

Who would you rather the Phillies face on Wednesday, the Rockies or the Padres?

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Finally, go to Flickr.com and view photos tagged "phillies".  The celebration is a sight to see.

Speed Racers, Trade Rumors, and Chris Coste

From the seats in the Hall of Fame Club last night at Citizens Bank Park [thanks MPN!], Jason Weitzel and I watched what can only be described as a track meet in the fifth inning.

            The Phillies' basepaths

The Phillies had already scored six runs in the bottom of that frame, but they weren't finished yet.  Michael Bourn singled and then stole second base before Shane Victorino walked.  Next up was Jimmy Rollins, who pulled a ball down the first base line and into the right field corner.  If you heard the crack of the bat and confused it for the sound a starter's gun makes, you were not alone. 

Bourn flew home from second, Victorino -- despite exhibiting a limp as he wandered around first base between pitches -- was nothing but a white and red streak as he round third to score, and not far behind him was Rollins, who slid into third to complete a two-run triple.

While it won't last too much longer this season, the combination of Bourn, Victorino and Rollins as the first three batters in the Phillies lineup is incredibly potent.  After all, say it with me, speed never slumps.

The question is, why will the trio be broken up? For one, Bourn is spelling Aaron Rowand while his shoulder recovers, and Rowand in fact played in the late-innings last night.  But also, Bourn could be traded.  It's been rumored that Bourn has been drawing interest from other teams in trade talks and the Phillies have been reluctant to deal him.  But word comes from Wilmington's News-Journal by way of Scott Lauber that the Phillies were scouting the Cardinals' Anthony Reyes.  Are the Cardinals's interested in Bourn?  Would this be a fair trade?

The more one watches Bourn, the more one tends to think he can be an every day center fielder and even lead off hitter if the Phillies chose to do so.  On the other hand, Reyes, who was one of the more highly thought of prospects in baseball coming into this season has struggled mightily.  His ERA sits north of 6 and his peripheral stats have been on the decline.  But given his age (25), contract status (eligible for free agency in 2013), and talent-level, it is certainly worth considering.

If it's yours truly in charge in the Phillies front office, I would pass on this deal, if it really is being considered, but only after a lot of long, hard thought.

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One thing you don't have to think long and hard about is whether or not Chris Coste is a better player to have on the roster than Jayson Werth or Rod Barajas.  Werth can an least pinch-run and play some late-inning defense.  Barajas on the other hand, is doing nothing but taking up space.

Last night Coste hit a home run and double with four RBI, raising his season average to .333 and OPS to .864.  Sending him back to the minors would border on criminal.

Rollins Proves His Worth, Maturation

Yes, the three-run home run Jimmy Rollins hit in the seventh inning -- his tenth on the year -- to win the second game in a row over the Mets in New York was impressive.  Rollins has developed a quick and powerful swing, triggered by a toe-tap which provides rhythm and timing.  In golf terms, he's what we would call "sneaky long".

But just as impressive was the at-bat that lead to the home run.  Facing Aaron Heilman, Rollins worked a 1-2 count.  Technically, a 1-2 count isn't something you strive for, but the strikes Rollins passed up were good pitches -- Heilman was "adding and subtracting" quite well -- that Rollins wouldn't be able to do much with.  He showed a patience that in years gone by would have been an aberration.

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In recent years, it has become a trend in baseball to lock up players to long-term contracts just as they are becoming eligible for free-agency or arbitration. Theoretically, it is supposed to be a win-win for each side — the player gets significant financial security sooner than he would otherwise and in most cases, the teams save money because the player, in return for the financial security is willing to sign for less money than he would get on the open market.

In June of 2005, Jimmy Rollins was playing under a one-year contract he received under arbitration. Hoping to lock Rollins up for the long-haul, then-GM Ed Wade agreed to a five-year, $40 million dollar deal. Undoubtedly, the two sides used the free-agent signings of several shortstops such as Orlando Cabrera (Angels, 4 years, $32 million) and Edgar Renteria (Red Sox, 4 years, $40 million) as precedents and benchmarks. Below is the offensive performance by those two plus Rollins since the start of the 2005 season through Wednesday:

           OPS  HR  SB-CS  R    

J-Roll    .797  47   77   289

Cabrera   .730  20   49   206

Renteria  .770  30   18   241

Offensively speaking, it’s impossible to deny that Rollins has provided the better value among those shortstops. Defense is much harder to judge, but if Rollins ranks behind Cabrera and Renteria, it certainly isn’t by the same margin he ranks ahead of them when it comes to offense.

Ed Wade saddled the Phillies with a lot of cumbersome and rigid contracts, but fortunately, Jimmy Rollins’ wasn’t one of them.

[Stats courtesy of Baseball Musings]

J-Roll Off to a Good Start

One can question the logic, reasoning, or motivation behind Jimmy Rollins' now infamous spring statement that the Phillies were the "team to beat" in the National League East division this season.  You can say it added pressure to a team that is incapable to handling expectations, or you can say that it was a nice piece of cheerleading that appears to have fallen on deaf ears.

However, there is no denying the fact that of all the Phillies' regular players, Rollins is the one actually playing as if the Phillies are the team to beat.  While the big stars of the team, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, have combined for two home runs, eight runs batted in and a batting average much closer to Utley's weight than Howard's, Rollins has played very, very good baseball.

We can't say "great" because Rollins did commit a fielding error that greatly contributed to the eighth inning collapse in New York on Monday, but for the most part, Rollins is walking the talk.  He is easily the team leader in slugging percentage with .806 and is second in all of baseball in home runs with five (Alex Rodriguez leads with six), one of which was an inside the parker.

Rollins has proved his value as a lead-off hitter with both speed and power.  On Thursday, he led off an inning and tripled on a ball that would have been a double for most hitters, scoring on Shane Victorino's sacrifice fly and yesterday, he lead-off the game with a home run and added another homer the next inning.  The team has scored 39 runs for the season, and over half are a direct result of Rollins' efforts -- he's scored 10 himself, driven in nine and he's tied for second in all of baseball with 12 runs created.

Remember, hot Aprils are not the norm for Rollins.  Typically at this time of year, we are lamenting the size of his on-base percentage and wondering if there isn't a better place for him in the lineup.  This year however, is a different story.

Yeah, Why Not Us?!

For the past several springs, when the Phillies have congregated in Clearwater, the vibe has always tended to be positive.  Climbing out of the wilderness that was the late-90's, the team began to assemble better talent and therefore optimism seemed to permeate the atmosphere just a little bit more, year after year.

The acquisitions of the Jim Thomes, the Kevin Millwoods, the David Bells, and the development of the Bobby Abreus and the Pat Burrells fueled the optimism.  There was always the feeling that there might just be enough now to get the team over the hump and into the playoffs.

There's no doubting those additions to the roster helped.  Indeed, the Phillies won just 65 games in 2000 but have averaged 85 a year since.  So the improvement is undoubtedly there, but there was a certain something that was still missing because in the end, the playoff drought has continued.

This season on the other hand, things feel different than before.  Sure, most of the new-found vibe is again fueled by offseason deals for Freddy Garcia, Wes Helms, and Adam Eaton, but there seems to be more legitimacy behind it in 2007.

Leading the Swagger Brigade is shortstop Jimmy Rollins.  News outlets all over the nation are printing and airing his mantra that the Phillies are the team to beat in the NL East.  There's a lot of heady talk from him and from others, but don't be fooled, there appears to be more to it than braggadocio.

Besides the flashy quotes, there are also reports of quirky but effective fielding drills for Chase Utley, Helms, and Ryan Howard, base running clinics for Chris Roberson, Shane Victorino and Rollins, and regular bunting and slap-hitting sessions for the pitching staff [ironic, because how many times as a fan, did you slap your forehead in disgust and/or disdain after an "at-bat" by a Phillie pitcher last year?].

Gone this year are many of those faces introduced in the early 2000's and coincidentally (or not), so are the clichéd and mindless quotes such as "My main goal is to get my work in everyday and get myself ready to play everyday."  Instead, in their place, we read and hear things such as "If you're afraid, then I don't want you on this team, anyway" [Rollins], "The teams that are in the playoffs every year expect to be there...As a team, we have to expect to be there" [Howard], and my personal favorite comes from closer Tom Gordon, "Why not us?!".

As phans, taking on Rollins attitude and setting our ingrained anxiety aside, if just for a moment, it's fun to think, "yeah, why not us?!"

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Unexpected stat of the day: Chase Utley has added 19 pounds to his 6'1'' frame and has pushed over the 200-mark.

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Opening Day will be here before you know it.  Head to the park in style.