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Phillies, Howard Reach 3-Year Agreement

Over the course of the next three baseball seasons, the Philadelphia Phillies will pay Ryan Howard $54 million.

Mets Rotation Just Got Iffier

Not sure if "iffier" is really a word [spell check seems OK with it], but how else can you describe their rotation as it stands three weeks before pitchers and catchers are due to report to Florida?

After the addition of Freddy Garcia -- yes that Freddy Garcia -- to a one-year incentive laiden deal, the Metropolitans starting rotation is comprised of...

This Arbitration Thing is Quite a Racket

A Texas Rangers-centric blog, Lone Star Ball, has an interesting view on arbitration and uses Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn as an example [link/hat tip]:

Dunn is also a free agent, unlike Howard. Dunn can market himself to any team, and any team can sign him and pay him whatever they want to pay him, without regard to putting on a case for an arbitrator. And he's still unsigned, with one agent saying he won't get more than $5 million for one year, although Ken Rosenthal thinks Dunn could maybe get 2 years at $20-24 million.

Regardless, Dunn isn't going to come close to the $18 million for one year Howard is asking for, or even the $14 million the Phillies are offering, despite the fact that they are almost the same player (even down to the huge strikeout numbers). The market has spoken, and it has decided Dunn isn't worth the big bucks.

Is there any reason to believe the market would treat Ryan Howard any differently? If the Phillies had simply non-tendered Howard, would Howard get $18 million a year for 2009? Would he get an annual salary twice what Pat Burrell (2 years, $16 million) got from the Rays?

I do tend to think that as free agents, Howard would be valued above Dunn, but still, I'm not sure he'd pull down $18 million.

Interesting way of looking at it however.

Anybody Have a Pen? [Updated]

As we speak, Ruben Amaro, Jr. is calling W.B. Mason for more pens.  They're quickly running out of ink in the Phillies offices.

The latest to use a Papermate is Jayson Werth, who has reportedly signed a multi-year deal with the Phillies, which skoots around arbitration and goes into his free agent years.  Exact number of years and dollars isn't available yet, but this is good news.

Details to follow...

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Update:  Werth's deal is for two years and a total of $10 million, $3 million in 2009 and $7 million in 2010.  Chad Durbin also agree to a deal with the Phillies, one year, $1.635 million.

Kudos to Ruben Amaro and his staff for getting everyone, with the exception of Ryan Howard of course, signed without having to go to arbitration.

Howard, Phillies Exchange Figures

Whoa.

Whoa.

The Phillies submitted $14 million to arbiters, while Howard submitted $18 million, the third largest figure in the 34-year history of arbitration figures.

Last season, the Phillies sumbitted $7 million to Howard's $10 million and lost, despite that fact that there was just as much to support their opinion as his.  This time around, the Phillies should have an even stronger case given that Howard's game has declined two years in a row.  Slugging average down.  On-base average down. BB/K ratio down. wOBA down.

But in the end, the arbiters appear to be people swayed more by the household name-type stats -- home runs and runs batted in.  Howard has oodles of those, so don't be surprised if he comes out on top again.

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Flying under the radar is the signing of starting pitcher Joe Blanton to a one-year, $5.475 million deal so as to, say it with me, avoid arbitration.

Ruben Amaro and his staff have sure had a busy week, I bet they wished they themselves were paid by the hour.  There's still a lot of work to do however.  Jayson Werth, Chad Durbin and of course Howard are still on the arbitration table.

Howard's case has no hope of getting done without a hearing, but it sure would be nice if the Phillies could get a two or three year deal done with Jayson Werth and a one or two year deal with Durbin.

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching: News on Romero, Hamels and Madson

First and foremost, it seems as if Ryan Madson reads this here website.  After all, I had hardly hit the publish button on a post questioning Madson's judgment on turning down a 3-year, $12 million deal from the Phillies when news came that Madson had decided to take the Phillies up on a very similar deal.

It's a good move on Madson's part to take the money and run.  What's interesting from the Phillies standpoint is how many of the important parts of the team are signing on for multiple years.  Seems to me the Phillies should be competitive at the very least for years to come.

Hamels, Phillies Avoid Arbitration for Three Years [Updated]

And then there were six.

Count Cole Hamels along with Greg Dobbs in the Phillies players who have avoided arbitration today.  The two sides reached a 3-year, $20.5 million deal.  Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Joe Blanton, Chad Durbin, Ryan Madson and of course, Ryan Howard remain.

The deal works for the Phillies because it give the team some cost certainty, Ruben Amaro's nirvana.  It works for Hamels because it gives him some security.  Injury or not, horrifying slump or not, Hamels is a $20 million-man.

What the deal doesn't do is change the date in which Hamels can become a free-agent, still the 2011/2012 offseason [Update/Correction - See below].

[source]

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Update: I was only half correct in that last paragraph.  It is true that this 3-year deal does not change when Hamels can become a free agent, however, Hamels will still have one year of arbitration eligibility remaining when the contract expires due to his "Super Two" status.  Hamels will be a free agent after the 2012 season.

As for the prospects of the Phillies retaining Hamels after 2012, it doesn't look good.  Here's what Hamels' agent had to say [source]:

"We're very pleased with the fact that Cole has had an opportunity to be rewarded for his accomplishments in the past,'' Hamels' agent, John Boggs, told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick. "The contract gives Cole a degree of financial security, and it didn't compromise his last year of arbitration or touch any free-agent years, which was our goal.''

Obviously things can change, but that quote makes it sound like Hamels is really looking to cash in four years from now.

Dobbs in the Fold for Two More

The Phillies have so many players eligible for arbitration, that you wouldn't be surprised to see the Phanatic sitting in a hearing in February.  Picture it, the Phanatic's agent bragging about how he makes fewer and fewer toddlers with "stranger danger" cry every year while the Phillies brass points out that he can no longer get to the 300 level without getting winded.

Truth be told, the exact number of players in arbitration as of yesterday was eight.  Fortunately for Gregory Stuart Dobbs and the Phillies, they were able to reach an agreement, 2 years, $2.5 million.

Dobbs joined the Phillies prior to the 2007 season after being released by the Seattle Mariners.  His career was brief and unremarkable until then, but with the Fightins he's been a decent utility player and one heckuva pinch-hitter, one of the tougher roles in sports.

As a matter of fact, Dobbs ranked fourth on the Phillies in win probability added, perhaps the best statistic available that takes "clutchiness" into account.  A ranking that high is pretty impressive for a non-regular, which just goes to show how important Dobbs is to the Phillies.

Getting that kind of contribution for a little over a million bucks a year?  That's a steal.

Madson Playing Hardball

It’s good to be Ryan Madson right now.  He just played a big part in his team winning a World Series and he’s a year away from free-agency.

Of course, he could also be one pitch away from Tommy John surgery.

In that regard, it must have taken a lot of guts for Madson, a Scott Boras client who made $1.4 million in 2008, to turn down the 3-year, $12 million dollar contract the Phillies just offered him.

When we last saw Madson, he was blazing high-90’s fast balls past hitters and nailing down the eighth innings of games, paving the way for Brad Lidge.  But as we all know, relief pitching is fickle, and if Madson has a bad year or gets injured seriously, well then, he might just see that $12 million flash before his eyes.

If it’s me, I ask the closest person for a pen and sign that contract faster than Charles Barkley can blow through a traffic light.

What Lowe to the Braves Might Mean for the NL East

Not sure how we should feel about the Atlanta Braves landing Derek Lowe (4 years, $60 million).

Even with Lowe and even if Kenshin Kawakami* turns out to be a good major league pitcher, it's still probably not enough of an improvement to make up the 20-game difference in the standings between the Phillies and Braves in 2008.

Now, you can say that with the additions the Phillies will have a tougher time accumulating wins against the Braves, which is true.  But then again, don't forget the Mets will too.

The one way that the signing could hurt the Phillies is that the Mets are now likely forced to go to Plan B (or is it C at this point? D?) and re-sign Oliver Perez.  After all, who do you think will be a better pitcher over the next few years, Lowe at the ages of 36 through 39 or Perez in his late-20's/early-30's?

In the short-term, it's a pretty safe bet that Lowe will be the better pitcher and by choosing the Braves over the Mets, Lowe has indirectly helped the Phillies.  But three or four years from now, there's a good chance Perez will be the better pitcher.

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*  Not a safe bet.  Kawakami's best pitch is a slower-than-slow curveball, and, little-known-fact:  American baseballs are larger than the Japanese versions.  It's possible that with the difference in size, Kawakami might have a harder time imparting spin on the ball.

Phils Eyeing Outfield Depth

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Phillies are interested in right-handed outfielder Gabe Kapler.

When I first read the report, my first thought was that it was merely a PR move, aimed at softening the blow to all of the female fans who like to sit in left field and enjoy ogling the departed Pat Burrell.  After all, what does Kapler have left in the tank?

As it turns out, after taking a look at his numbers with the Brewers last year, he demolished left-handed pitching and compiled an over .600 slugging percentage against lefties.  Plus, defensive metrics suggest he still plays better-than-average defense in the corner outfield positions (below average in centerfield however).

Kapler, 33, had actually retired from playing baseball after the 2006 season and then managed in the minor leagues.  He returned to play in 2008 and looks as if he still wants another go-around.

Base Knocks & Linkology

With apologies to Jimmy Page and Robert Plant, here's a whole lotta links...

Hey [What About] Rocco?

Prior to the 2007 season, the Phillies were in search of outfield depth.  Then-general manager Pat Gillick reached into his mental database and a light-bulb went off above his head.  Jayson Werth.

Werth was a very toolsy, athletic draft pick of the Orioles during Gillick's time there as general manager, but his career had been derailed by a hand injury and had been non-tendered by the Dodgers.

The rest is history.  When you think of Werth, you think of long at-bats with ugly but often productive swings, home runs in four consecutive at-bats in 2008 and the big red fist he wore at the World Series parade.

Five Ways Raul Ibanez Can Help the Phillies

Over the last week, there's been a lot of talk regarding how Raul Ibanez is not a good fit for the Phillies and there are certainly many reasons why.

But make no mistake, Ibanez is a good baseball player and there are several ways in which he can help the Phillies, despite the fact that he's not ideal for left field.

In no particular order...

Moyer Remains a Phillie

David Murphy of the Daily News brings the good news.  Though Murph does not give a dollar amount, he does say the contract is for two years.

It might seem a bit hypocritical for me to think a two-year deal is perfectly fine for Moyer, 47, yet balk at giving three years to Raul Ibanez, 36.  However, after having watched Moyer the last two and a half seasons, I think it is a worthy gamble.

Chan Ho Park a Phillie, According to Him

This morning, I sent Tugger out to the sidewalk to retrieve my copy of the Korea Times and when he returned, I found in the sports section coverage of a Chan Ho Park press conference.  At the conference he announced he has signed with the Phillies.  Do the Phillies know this?

The deal was rumored last week, so the signing comes as no surprise, but what does -- besides the way it has been "announced" -- is the size of the deal.  According to Park, age 35, it is a one-year deal worth $2.5 million which could go to $5 million through incentives and he chose the Phillies' offer over others he received because the Phillies view him as a starter.

So in the last week, the Phillies have picked up an outfielder in Raul Ibanez who is a questionable fit with the team and a pitcher in Park who has been awful for most of this century.

Good thing they are World effing Champs.

Blame Elvis?

The more you think about the signing of Raul Ibanez by the Phillies, the more perplexing it gets.  Besides all the reasons laid out previously, there's also the issue of draft picks.  By signing Ibanez, the Phillies will have to forfeit their first-round draft pick in June to the Seattle Mariners.

What happened?  Did Burrell's dog Elvis take a big dump on Ruben Amaro's lawn?

I'm very curious to see how the front office spins this signing.