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Ptiching Notes on Brad Lidge and Jamie Moyer

Heard an interesting tidbit yesterday on the Bill Simmons podcast regarding Jamie Moyer. 

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Apparently, according to Buster Olney, Moyer does not change the speeds of his pitches by changing his grip on the ball the way just about every other pitcher does it.  Rather, Moyer keeps the same grip but varies the degree to which he pushes off the mound with his legs.  In other words, he drives his legs hard for a fastball and less of a drive for something offspeed. Moyer has told Olney, "It fools the hitter because they aren't looking down at my legs, they're looking at my hand and my release."  Interesting.

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Apparently, Brad Lidge is, yet again, hurt. According to the beat writers, he's experiencing stiffness in his pitching elbow. Perfect.

Hopefully, the Phillies learned their lesson last year and will take a very, very cautious approach with Lidge and not send him out until he's 101% healthy and even then, wait another day or two.

The Phillies are the cream of the National League crop, but they are going to need all hands on deck to win another championship.

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Our Worst Fears Realized

As autumn came, the playoffs drew closer and closer and Brad Lidge's struggles continued, you wondered just how long it would go on.  You didn't think that it would go into the playoffs, either he'd figure himself out or he'd be removed from the closer's role by the time October rolled around.

As it turns out, both happened, he lost his closer's job, but gradually re-earned the trust of Charlie Manuel and many of us.  He regained his control and kept batters off base more consistently.

And so there we were tonight, the Phillies having come back against the Yankees after trailing for the entire game, a tie game in the 9th.  Lidge came to the mound and got two quick outs.  But as we saw so many times in April, May, June... all the way through September, Lidge couldn't seal the deal.  A single from Johnny Damon, Mark Teixeira hit-by-pitch, and then the dagger, a double by the centaurian Alex Rodriguez.  Jorge Posada would add two insurance runs with a single of his own.

There will be a lot of talk about the defensive infield shift that allowed Johnny Damon to get to third base after stealing second base, but really, there were enough hard hit balls by the Yankees that Damon would have scored from any base.  Forget the shift, it's a red-herring.

Down 3 games to 1, the Phillies are really in a hole.  In the past, Jayson Werth called the Phillies a "team of necessity".  Now, every game is necessary.

What a Whirlwind

Shane knocks one out... Clifton Phifer Lee paints the corners... Werth puts on his hulk hands and makes it 2-0... Raul pulls a mini-Holliday... Pete Happy swings at the first pitch [first pitch!?!?!]... Lee comes out for the 8th and gets into trouble, Madson and Ben Francisco in, Lee and Ibanez out... Fly to leeeft, BENNY BABY!!! Charlie's a genius until... Rockies knock around Madson, we're down two runs with only three outs left... Dobbs K's, Jimmy singles... Shane almost hits into a DP... Uts walks... The Big Piece doubles!... Shane almost misses third on the way home, Chase is chasing him, they both score and we're tied at 4!... Werth singles and The Big Piece rumbles home! 5-4 Fightin' Phillies!... Eyre and his loose bodies and sprained ankle come out for the bottom of the 9th... Two outs and two singles later, Charlie calls on Lidge to face Tulo... the Delaware Valley holds their breath... Struck him out!

It's 2:14 AM, Do You Know Where Your Save Is?

Caught in a tight spot in the 7th inning, with men on first and third and no outs, Charlie Manuel called on Ryan Madson to get three crucial outs.  He allowed the runner on third to score and tie the game at 5, but no other hitters reached base and eventually, Jimmy Rollins would score the winning run in the top of the 9th [earmuffs!].

For the bottom of the 9th, all that was left for Charlie was Brad Lidge.  Though he struggled with command, and a runner got to second base, Lidge did not allow a hard hit ball, and got the save at 2:14 AM EST.

A tight, close game -- playoff baseball personified.  But more importantly, as for Lidge are the lights out again?

That's too long a conversation, I'm going to bed.

See you and Cliff Lee at 6:07 tomorrow.

Get Ready for the Rockies

Though I confess to having not watched a single pitch of today's Phillies game and as a matter of fact, I haven't even read a game summary*.  But I did see a headline, and with Paul Hoover [Paul Hoover?!?] getting the game-winning hit in extra innings, it sort of feels like the season ended with a result similar in feel to so many games in 2008.  Exciting come-from-behind wins were all over the Phillies' boxscores last year, while this year has felt more like trudging through knee deep water.

With any luck, that kind of win will give the Phillies a little spring in their step as they prepare for their first playoff opponent, the Colorado Rockies.  One Phillie in particular who might be smiling is Brad Lidge.  While I didn't watch Sunday's game, I did see much of Saturday's game in which Lidge pitched in the 9th inning with the Phillies one run down to the Marlins.  Lidge's control was very impressive.  If you watched catcher Carlos Ruiz, he hardly moved his glove to catch Lidge's pitches.  I'm not sure I want to say this out loud, but it really, really looked like the Lidge of 2008.

Yes, Astros and Phillies fans have both been down this road before with Lidge, experiencing the highest highs and the lowest lows and often with little time passing in between.  So while Lidge should be on a short leash for the playoffs, here's hoping he's turned the corner in the nick of time.

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* The reason for not watching the game had nothing to do with the day's glorious weather and everything to do with getting hooked on Mad Men.  Having renewed our Netflix membership, first in our queue was the first season of the show, and three discs in I'm hooked like Don Draper to Lucky Strikes.  Can't wait for Netflix to get the next discs to me.

Three-Peat!

With Brad Lidge on the mound for the final out, the Phillies beat the Astros 10-3 to win the National League East for the third year in a row!

Pop the bubbly!

[And by the way, what a great move by Charlie Manuel to bring in Brad Lidge for the final out]

Update:  Did you see all of the champagne-and-beer-soaked Phillies run out to the "HK" sign in the outfield to touch it and douse it?!?  Excuse me, there's something in my eye...

Try ANYTHING

In baseball, good teams win 85 or 87 games, very good teams win 90 or 92 games, and great teams win 100 games.  The Phillies have 88 wins with 11 more games to play.  If they go 6-5, they'll end up with 94 wins.  Not too shabby, but think about this:  Brad Lidge has 9 losses on the year.  Imagine if the Phillies won 5 or 6 of those games and Lidge was a more serviceable 0-4 or 0-3, then we'd all be talking about how the Phillies are a great team, on their way to a 99- or 100-win season.

My point?  Brad Lidge is preventing the Phillies from being a great team.  Now, teams with the highest regular season win totals don't necessarily win the World Series, but I think you see where I am headed with this.  Lidge's performance is costing the Phillies greatness.

To be fair, at this point, it's not only Lidge who is preventing greatness, it's also manager Charlie Manuel.  We understand there are significant injuries in the bullpen, we understand he doesn't have many options to close out games, but he does have options.

Again, the Phillies have 11 games left.  There's no more time to fool around.  Try Scott Eyre and his loose body.  Try Tyler Walker. [And by the way, wouldn't it be fun to see how much Tyler Walker sweats in a closing situation?  You'd need a bean-bag chair sized rosin bag out on the mound.]  Try anything else, Charlie, because time is running out and after 63 craptastic appearances in 2009, you can bet the 2008 version of Brad Lidge is not walking through that door any time soon.

Tired? Maybe?

Undoubtedly, tonight's loss to the Mets was the worst of any this year.  This makes 60 losses and I don't think you can find any of the other 59 that would surpass it.  Up 9-5 through 7 innings, the bullpen surrendured 5 runs, including a blown save by closer pro tem Ryan Madson.

I've never been convinced Ryan Madson is closer material [my choice for the 9th inning is Brett Myers, although he also contributed a home run to the loss], however, I will say this in his defense:  he's been used a lot lately and could be showing wear.

Saturday's appearance was his 4th in five days.  Prior to that, Madson had five days off because of discomfort in his pitching arm, possibly brought on by overuse.

He'd Finally Seen Enough

With the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th inning in Washington, only one out and an all-of-a-sudden razor-thin two-run lead, Charlie Manuel strode to the pitcher's mound and took the ball from Brad Lidge.  Ryan Madson would enter the game and get the final two outs to preserve the win.

Based upon Charlie Manuel's post-game comments, he made the change in order to preserve the win.  If you read the comments online or in the newspaper, that's how it sounds.  But if you saw Manuel make those comments on television, and saw the look on Charlie's face, then you have to wonder if it wasn't so much about preserving the win as it was saving Lidge from himself.  In other words after a hit, a hit batter and wild pitch, Manuel couldn't bear to let another blown save and the attention that comes with it avalanche on Lidge for the 11th time this season.

[An aside: To those of you who think sports is all-business these days, I would point you to the look on Manuel's face last night and the tears Pat Gillick shed when the Phillies received their World Series rings a few months ago.]

Manuel claims Lidge is still the closer, but if you listen to him closely, it doesn't sound like an automatic decision either.

Dr. Manuel Needs to Make the Move He Doesn't Want to Make

Charlie Manuel has proved over the years that he has certain patterns for dealing with struggling players, and almost all of them are geared towards rebuilding confidence or preserving and protecting it.  He might not have a Psy.D. or Ph.D. in psychology, but he certainly practices it from time to time.

The first strategy involves continually sending the struggling player out on the field.  This isn't a sadistic move with the intent to shatter the player's psyche, rather it's a move that says, "I know you're a good player, you've done it before, and since I believe in you, I'm penciling you in."  The use of Ryan Howard against left-handed pitchers is a great example of this strategy.  Another, is of course, Brad Lidge.  Lidge was perfect last year in save opportunities and this year, despite his numerous and well-scrutinized struggles, Manuel has stuck with Lidge.

The second strategy Manuel employs with struggling players is actually the opposite of the first strategy.  This strategy involves Manuel removing the player from the field for a period of time.  The reasoning here is that a few days away from the game will get the player's mind off of his struggles, allow him to relax and hit the "reset button", if you will.  A perfect example of this strategy is Manuel's handling of Jimmy Rollins.  Rollins' batting average earlier in the season was threatening to dip below .200 when Manuel elected to give Rollins four days off.  Since then, Jimmy has been more like the Jimmy we know and love, the one that fuels the offense.

Finally, there's a third strategy for dealing with struggling players that Manuel has used:  stop using them altogether.  See Adam Eaton.  Another example -- but by no means a comparison to Adam Eaton -- would be Jamie Moyer.  Moyer just wasn't getting anybody out as a starter, and has hard as it must have been for Manuel, he knew that no amount of psychological voodoo was going to make a difference, and so he removed Moyer from the rotation.

As much as it pains me to say it, I think it is time Manuel takes Brad Lidge out of the closer's role.

It's amazing to think it has come to this, and I think Manuel has been correct in sticking with Lidge to this point.  Brad Lidge was indispensible last season.  He's a World F. Champion.  I respect the hell out of him and you should too.

At the same time, as Doc Manuel would say, he's just not getting the job done this year and we've seen nothing to think Lidge can get it back for more than a few games at a time.  Look, we all knew Lidge would struggle at least a little bit this season.  There's no way a reliever can keep up the pace he had in 2008 forever.  But there's a difference between coming back to earth and what Lidge is doing.

Some would say that if Lidge remains the closer for the rest of the regular season, it won't change a thing, the NL East title is essentially wrapped up.  I would agree.  However, we aren't interested in just another NL East banner, we want the Phillies to remain World F. Champions and to do that, you can't lose a 9th inning lead every 4th or 5th game.  Can't do it, period.

And, since none of the other relievers on the Phillies staff are sure-thing closers, that's why the time has come to make the change.  Manuel needs time to figure out who Plan B is and make sure they're a serviceable closer before the heat of cool October nights set in.

He's Ba-aaaaack

Don't ask where he went, don't ask why he came back, just be glad Cole Hamels... is back.

He's rattled off 19 consecutive scoreless innings and in his last two starts has 17 innings pitched, one complete game, 16 strikeouts, only 3 walks and only 9 hits allowed.  It's been a thing of beauty to watch.  Carlos Ruiz sets up on the outside corner and a split second later, the ball that was once in King Cole's fingers is dancing right into Chooch's mitt.

Don't look know, but things are really coming together for defending World Champions.  More thoughts below.

The Case for Co-Closer has Merit

After watching Brad Lidge blow last night’s one-run lead to the Pittsburgh Pirates [sorry, but Luis Cruz, Brandon Moss and Andrew McCutchen are not exactly a modern-day Murderer’s Row] via MLB.com’s Gameday, I nearly lost the deposit on our Cape Cod rental.

Naturally, this morning, I went searching Twitter, Philly.com and the Pheeds page to see what “the chatter” had to say.  Amongst the discussion/venting was this analysis by Rich Hofmann of the Daily News on his blog, “The Idle Rich'”.  The money excerpt:

Best as I can cipher, that leaves us with 21 appearances where Lidge entered a game either tied or with a lead, 12 with at least one day of rest and nine with no days of rest.

With rest: 2.38 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 75 percent of the appearances without allowing an earned run.

Without rest: 9.95 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, and 56 percent of the appearances without allowing an earned run.

Other than his fairly small sample size, I think Richard is on to something.  In addition, the numbers confirm my suspicion that Lidge is not healthy.  If he was, he’d be able to pitch more than two days in a row.

By the way, my vote for co-closer – if Charlie Manuel can bring himself to take that strategy – is Brett Myers, unless of course he gets punched at a bar by his Escalade again.

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By the way, while playing golf up here [Truro’s Highland Golf Links], the fellow golfers have to things two say to me when they find out I am from the Philly suburbs:

1.  Any number of compliments on the Cliff Lee trade [as if I have something to do with that].

2. Any number of disparaging things to say about “Philly’s new quarterback” as they refer to him [again, as if I have something to do with that].

Time Running Out on Lidge

With another blown save on Saturday night, Brad Lidge further shook the confidence of an entire city.  His manager, Charlie Manuel, has claimed over and over that Lidge is “his guy”, and that he’ll be the closer for the rest of the year.

But at some point, don’t you have to decide that the struggles of one player shouldn’t bring down an entire team of players?

The Phillies aren’t there yet, there’s still time for Lidge to get his season back on track, but time is running out.  It’s only natural to think that Lidge’s leash reaches through the regular season.  However, it’s not that simple.

Let’s say that Lidge continues to struggle for the rest of the season.  It would be unreasonable to then name another pitcher as the closer for the playoffs.  I would think that, at worst, you would want Lidge’s replacement pitching in the ninth inning for two weeks before the playoffs start, making sure that the new closer [Park? Myers? Madson? Pedro?] has time to settle in before the pressure cooker of October begins.

C’mon Brad, you can do it, lets go.

Good Move, Charlie, Good Move

At SI.com on Thursday, Tim Marchman wrote the following regarding a few teams making use of the “closer-by-committee” strategy:

All those who militate for such bullpen reforms as not feeling the need to designate a single closer have really ever argued is that teams should use a strategy that fits their personnel.

While Charlie Manuel is certainly not employing a closer-by-committee strategy [and I am by no means advocating that he should], it was interesting to see him do just what Marchman coincidentally wrote about one day before.

With the lefthander Adam LaRoche due to lead off the top of the 9th for the Pittsburgh Pirates, trailing the Phillies by 2 runs, Manuel elected to leave lefty J.C. Romero in to face him.  Not only was the matchup preferrable from a lefty-lefty standpoint, but also from the fact that LaRoche has been 3-4 against Brad Lidge [yes, small sample size caveats do apply, but still, just because it is a small sample doesn't automatically mean it means nothing].

Romero struck out LaRoche looking, Lidge came in and got the save -- albeit with the obligatory home run drama, this time Brandon Moss.

No doubt, Brad Lidge is and should be the Phillies closer.  However, that doesn't mean you can't make his job easier for him at times when the game situation allows it, as it did last night.  Often, Charlie Manuel's bullpen usage is very paint-by-numbers, but last night, his thinking was perfect.

Analyzing Brad Lidge's Latest Trip to the Disabled List

As you may have heard by now, Brad Lidge has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a sprained right knee.  The move is retro-active to June 7th, which means the Phillies will be eligible to use Lidge again on June 22nd.  In his place, Paul Bako was called up from AA-Reading, where he was serving in the Crash Davis role as an experienced catcher signed for depth and presumably to work with young pitchers.

The timing of the roster move is interesting given the recent return of J.C. Romero to the roster from his 50-game suspension.  I'm not one to fall for conspiracy theories, but sometimes little ones can hold some truth, and I tend to think that the Phillies were waiting to get Romero back and see how effective he was before sending Lidge and his chronically balky knee to the disabled list.  According to David Murphy of the Daily News, it doesn't seem as if the knee has been right for some time, even since Lidge was temporarily shelved earlier in the season, so it seems as if the Phillies have been just waiting for the right time.

Second, by bringing in Paul Bako to replace Lidge, it allows the Phillies to use Chris Coste as the right-handed bat off the bench the Phillies have been lacking all year.  Granted, a Ryan Spilborghs-type would be better for that role, but Coste can serve in a pinch.  He has an .876 OPS against left-handed pitching this season and .865 for his career.

Rivalry Week

Beginning tonight, the most over-hyped, over-done, over-ballyhooed rivalry will take center-stage in America’s sports consciousness:  Red Sox/Yankees.

But not everyone in the northeast corridor will be consumed by this conflagration, because a three-game Phillies/Mets series also begins this evening.

From the players and coaches of both teams, via the press, we’ll hear comments such as “it’s only June” in attempts to downplay the importance of the series.  However, you shouldn’t let that fool you for a couple of reasons:

• Though it is only June, you don’t get many chances to step on the opposition’s neck the way the Phillies do now.  They are three games up on the Mets and a sweep would make it a six-game lead.  In the history of baseball, far fewer 6-game leads in June have been lost than 3-game leads in June.  The former rarely happens, the latter can often happen.
• The two teams really don’t like each other.  It’s not a “hate” think, but it is a general dislike.  The Mets don’t like the Phillies for confidently winning the NL East in dramatic fashion the past two seasons and the Phillies don’t like the Mets because of the way they carry themselves.  Their choreographed celebrations don’t go over well with the Chase Utleys of the world.
• The Mets have something to prove.  Given all the injuries and fundamental miscues, the Mets confidence is wavering.  Carlos Beltran has said he’s embarrassed about the way the Mets have been playing.  With all of the problems they’ve had, they are going to be hungry to knock off the World Series champs.

No, this series isn’t deciding everything and the rest of the season still matters more, but, just as there are high-leverage situations in an individual game, so are there high-leverage situations in a season.  Tonight begins one of them.

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Lidge and Lucifer

Blogger/comedian/TV producer Paul Francis Sullivan, who shockingly goes by the nickname Sully, wrote this very funny analysis of Brad Lidge’s problems this season.

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Check back in the micro-missives widget in the right-hand sidebar during this week’s games.  Surely, we’ll have much to discuss and if you use Twitter or Facebook, look us up.

A New Toy: Examining a Few of Brad Lidge's Outings via Pitch F/x

On October 22, 2008, Brad Lidge faced the minimum Tampa Bay Rays when he struck out Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria and then got Carl Crawford to foul out to third base.  The quick inning sealed the deal for the Phillies in Game 4 and gave them a 3 games to 1 lead in the World Series.

On April 8, 2009, Brad Lidge needed to face four batter before he was able to close the game out as a victory for the Fightins.  First he struck out Jeff Francoeur [despite the fact that Frenchy has a new stance -- have you heard?!?!], then Matt Diaz ripped a ball to left for a solo homer, cutting the Phillies lead in half.  Jordan Shafer then grounded out and Garrett Anderson struck out swinging.

Two different very different outings for Lidge.  Both successful, but the latter was certainly more shaky.

Just for the fun of it, and not to draw any overarching conclusions, I thought I'd take a look at Lidge's release points from those two games.

October 22, 2008:

April 8, 2009:

As you can see, there’s just a little more dispersion in Wednesday’s outing than last fall’s.  The x-axis represents the horizontal deviation in his release point and then of course, the y-axis represents any vertical deviation.

Does it mean anything?  Hard to say.  We’re just looking at two outings.  Relief pitchers are hard to quantify as it is because of how few innings they pitch, and so taking just two innings makes that the case even more so.

But still, it is interesting to note the differences.  Food for thought, nothing more, nothing less.

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