Ed Wade & Co. have been fairly busy leading up to the arbitration deadline and the annual winter meetings. Though the moves seem to be relatively low-impact, you never know when you might catch lightening in a bottle - did anyone think that when the Braves picked up Jaret Wright off waivers at the end of 2003 that he would be one of the better pitchers in baseball in 2004? But because the moves are, on the surface, a bit on the boring side, it's interesting to speculate on the logic behind the moves and their possible benefit to the 2005 Phils.
1. Kenny Lofton acquired in a trade (Felix Rodriguez to the Yankees) - The reasoning behind this one is fairly obvious, the Phillies needed a major league quality centerfielder. Yes, Lofton's best years are behind him, but he can still get on base, has a low strike out rate, and plays what probably amounts to an average centerfield. As I've said before, this move won't make or break the Phightin's in 2005, but it is a little piece that was certainly needed.
2. Todd Pratt is brought back as the Phillies backup catcher for 2005 at a cost of $750,000 - Pratt is getting a bit long in the tooth (37), but he is dependable and makes for a decent pinch-hitter, something a lot of backup catchers can't even begin to do. Sandy Alomar, Jr., Ed Wade & Co.'s first choice as the backup might have filled the role adequately, but I think in the end it might be fortuitous that Alomar flunked his physical (knee).
3. The Phillies claimed RHP Pedro Liriano off waivers from the Brewers - In 2004, Liriano, age 24, had a 4.02 ERA in 15.2 IP. Nothing eye catching there so we have to dig a bit deeper...5.05 FIP ERA with a .760 DER behind him...that's eye catching, but in the wrong kind of way. Decent minor league stats can be found, but nothing earth-shattering. Finally, after poking around on ESPN.com we see that Liriano had a 1.75 groundball/flyball ratio. And there it is. The Phils must have seen that ratio, and maybe along with some favorable scouting reports, it was enough to make Steady Eddie take a chance.
4. The Phillies signed pitchers Mike Bacsik, Clay Condrey and Aaron Myette to minor league contracts and invited them to spring training - The common thread among these three pitchers is that they are in their late twenties, their ERA's are large, and their strikeout totals low. The hot stat for phans examining pitchers is groundball/flyball ratio, and at least Condrey comes in at 1.59, whereas the others gave up more flyballs than grounders. As I've written before, the Braves put together an outstanding pen every year on the cheap, and maybe this is the Phils way of doing it. I doubt it, but I hope.
5. Left-handed reliever Rheal Cormier agreed Tuesday to a $5.75 million, two-year contract - In the same post that I mentioned the Braves ability to always piece together a good cheap bullpen, I also referred to Cormier as "French for 'over-priced gas can'". I'm not sure at all what I was thinking there, my best guess is that Cormier had blown a game or two in August, the team was circling the drain, and I was a bit frustrated. At any rate, that was unfair, Cormier is a very solid lefthanded relief pitcher (with an excellent 1.69 career number in the all-important GB/FB ratio), and the Phillies will benefit from his presence in 2005.
Slowly but surely, the Phillies 2005 roster is beginning to take shape. The only thing still missing? A good starting pitcher, ace-worthy preferrably. And with several teams offering their free-agent pitchers arbitration on Tuesday night the Phillies list of candidates is getting shorter and shorter. Cross David Wells, Derek Lowe, Brad Radke (who was actually re-signed by the Twins), Odalis Perez, and Carl Pavano off the list - the Phillies have stated they will not attempt to sign a player that was offerred arbitration and then therefore, have to surrender a draft pick to that player's former team. Having a moment of weakness and think re-signing Kevin Millwood and Eric Milton is the right thing to do? Too late, the Phillies did not offer those players arbitration and so therefore, they can not negotiate with those players until May 1, 2005.
So who is left? Despite the fact that the Yankees offered Jon Lieber arbitration, the Phillies are apparently pursuing him to a multi-year deal (the print-friendly version of the story can be found here, and incidentally, I'll continue to link to the print-friendly version of Philly.com articles until they stop running the very graphic ad graphic with the infected toenail in the margin), though I'll be surprised if the offer isn't rescinded. Woody Williams is apparently available without surrendering a draft pick, and he might be work a look-see as the options are getting fewer and fewer.
For the most part, I've thought Ed Wade has been a fairly good general manager, developing a talent laden team with multiple obsctacles to overcome. But by letting the Bowa situation get out of hand, by failing to to anything to help the team at several mid-season trade deadlines, and now most likely failing to significantly improve the pitching staff - the team's biggest and most obvious need - I'm beginning to have second thoughts. Wade feels he is playing it safe by hording draft picks, but I contend that this strategy is actually more of a risk. The ability to predict the future performance of an 18 to 22 year old kid obtained in the draft is much more difficult than it is to predict the future performance of Wells, Lowe, Radke, Pavano, Perez, or any other established major leaguer. Yes, younger less established players are cheaper - and there is no doubt you have to have some Utleys and Madsons around - but it is also more expensive in the long run if the picks don't develop into good major leaguers. And there are other ways to develop cheap talent than the amateur draft. The Phillies have never really developed a good program for acquiring young Latin American players, something that costs very little and it is a population of prospects that does not have to go through the draft to be eligible for signing.
It's possible that the NL East will offer even weaker competition than it did last year, but it isn't something you can count on. Phans should hope that the Phillies won't miss the playoffs because Ed Wade & Co. missed out on some good free agent pitchers.
