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Ironically, Rowand's Deal Might be Talking Points for Burrell's Agents

Last offseason, the talk of the town was in regards to whether or not the Phillies would be able to retain the services of Aaron Rowand, or if he would leave via free-agency.

Almost everyone assumed that Rowand, after a career year in 2007, would most likely leave.  As it turns out, that is exactly what happened.  The San Francisco Giants ponied up $60 million dollars over the course of 5 seasons, an offer the Phillies wisely declined to match.

This offseason there is a similar discussion, but this time it pertains to Pat Burrell.  Will he stay or will he go?  In both cases, the two players wanted to stay and in both cases, it was/is pretty likely that another team will come in with a can't-refuse type offer.  So the question becomes, can the Phillies offer enough to allow Burrell to turn down the insanely large offer that will surely come and still sleep at night?

If Rowand received $12 million every year for half a decade, what is Burrell worth?  Probably a lot more.  Take a look at they're park and league adjusted OPS over the last few years:

     2005 2006 2007 2008  
Burrell  128  122  127  125 
Rowand   93  86  123  94

It's not even close, Burrell is a much more productive hitter.  The difference between those two in terms of offensive production is probably in the neighborhood of 20 to 25 runs over the course of a season.

Defensively, the comparisons are harder because the two play different positions.  We know that Burrell is pretty sure-handed at everything he gets to and throws to the infield pretty well, the problem being he doesn't get to much.  Rowand, on the other hand, doesn't have much of an arm but certainly has better [if not overrated] range.  But there's no way that Burrell's defensive liabilities negate his clear advantage in offensive performance.

If I'm representing Pat Burrell, or any other outfielder this offseason, my point of reference in negotiations, over and over again will be Aaron Rowand in 2007.  Because if Rowand received that much, then even at a hometown discount, Burrell has to be worth at least, what, $50-$55 million over four years?

We know Pat wants to stay, and we know the Phillies want to keep him, but he's going to have to have a whole lot of willpower to turn down the myriad of high-priced offers that are going to come his way.

Au Leather

Know your periodic elements.

Anyway, The Phillies announced that Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand were awarded Rawlings Gold Gloves.

Congratulations Jimmy and Aaron, now you are just as good defensively as Bobby Abreu.

Sorry, that's more of a shot at the degree to which the Gold Glove awards identify good defenders than the skills of Rollins and Rowand.  As a matter of fact, in the case of Rollins and Rowand, it looks as if the awards were at least somewhat justified.

Baseball Info Solutions' Plus/Minus statistic is one of the best for evaluating defense, and Jimmy ranked among the leaders at shortstop.  During the course of the season, according to Plus/Minus, Jimmy made 7 more plays than the average shortstop in 2007.  While Rowand was not among the leaders at center field in 2007, he is one of the better center fielders in the last few years.  Plus/Minus ranks Rowand among the leaders from 2005-2007.

[Keep an eye out in the coming weeks for David Pinto's PMR ratings.  Published at Baseball Musings, it is one of the most comprehensive statistics we have and, what's more, it's free to you and me.  PMR will help us better understand where Rowand, Rollins, and the rest of the Phillies rank.]

Rollins is not the only Phillie to appear on the Plus/Mins rankings in 2007.  Chase Utley tied for first among second basemen and Shane Victorino was one of the better right fielders.  On the other hand, for kicks, Plus/Minus "trailers" are also published.  Pat Burrell was one of the worst left fielders.

By the way, Bobby was one of the worst right fielders.

Do Not Stand Next to the Phillies in a Lightning Storm

From the Inquirer:

On the day the Phillies announced that Chase Utley, who broke his right hand Thursday, had successful surgery on the fourth metacarpal in his right hand, the team finds out that centerfielder Aaron Rowand would miss tonight's game against the Pittsburgh Pirates because he injured his left shoulder playing tag with his kids at a neighborhood barbecue Thursday night. It is the same shoulder he had surgery on in 2001 and is expected to be day-to-day. Michael Bourn was scheduled to start in centerfield in his absence.

I have this vision of Rowand running full-steam into the fence in his yard in an effort to avoid being tagged by his kid.

In all seriousness, if Rowand should miss any sort of significant time or his play is hampered by this injury, the season really would be lost, given that Chase Utley is the lone song title on John Lannan's Greatest Hits.

Link: Utley has surgery, placed on DL; Rowand out | Inquirer | 07/27/2007.

Mailbag: Aaron Rowand

The Official BS&S.com Inbox has been brimming with missives asking about my thoughts on Aaron Rowand.  The questions are typically along the lines of "Will he be dealt?" and/or "Will the Phillies re-sign him at the end of the season as a free-agent?"

I spend a lot of time -- entirely too much actually -- reading between the lines of statements made by Phillies general manager Pat Gillick and his assistants, Ruben Amaro, Jr. and Mike Arbuckle and here is what I think their plan is between now and next April, which I would actually endorse [of course, I also thought the Freddy Garcia deal was a good one, and the Jon Lieber one too, which begs the question: why are any of you bothering to get my opinion?]...

...Keep Aaron Rowand for now and ride his wave until the season is over.  Then, in the off-season, offer him arbitration, which he will likely turn down, and then reap the draft picks in June awarded to the Phillies due to his departure.

Look, I love Aaron Rowand, but there is no way he will be worth the money some team is going to throw at him this winter based upon what he has done this summer.  Take a look at Rowand's OPS+ by season:

Anything look suspicious there?  His performance declined for two straight seasons until he hit a contract year.  Again, I love Rowand, I love what he brings to the team in terms of attitude and work ethic, but I think this is a classic example of a player who is having a career year as he becomes a free agent.

Next, you might ask, "then why not trade him now?" Because whatever you get for him now will not equal the value he provides as an above average center fielder and the lone dependable right handed bat in the Phillies lineup.

If anyone gets traded in the coming days, it will be Michael Bourn for a back-end starter.  In the off-season, with Rowand gone, Shane Victorino will move to center field and the Phillies will sign a right fielder with some pop.

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More on Rowand:

The 700 Level

The Zo Zone

Scott Lauber

Mike Radano

Rowand Still Trying to Make His Mark at the Plate

Back in the days before we had DVR's where all you had to do was press a button to start recording something on television, I stumbled across a segment of video, probably during a rain delay of a baseball game, where Tony Gwynn was interviewing and discussing hitting with Ted Williams (the unfrozen version).  It was fascinating to hear their discussion and the philosophies each had on the swing and how to approach an at-bat.  In terms of the level of expertise, it was probably the equivalent of listening to Will Hunting and Albert Einstein talk math.  Except a lot more fun.

Another person I would think it would be interesting to talk with -- listen, actually -- about hitting would be Charlie Manuel.  Hitting is his passion and from certain accounts we've heard and read, the sudden improvement Ryan Howard experienced in the minor leagues a few years back was due in large part to then-instructor-at-large Charlie Manuel.  Charlie, if you are reading this, I'm offering a standing invitation, I'll bring the whiskey.

If we were to get together in the near future, one of the first things I would ask Charlie is why he can't get Aaron Rowand going a bit better at the plate.  Ever since I first laid eyes upon him in the box about a year ago, I've thought he's looked stiff and awkward at the plate, almost frozen, not out of anxiety, but out of tension from pent up energy.  But then, because he is so stiff, when the pitch comes in, it seems impossible to make a fluid swing.  I've often thought that Rowand looked as if you could knock him over on his back at the plate with just a soft tap to his chest.

Not being and expert on hitting, I always assumed there were intricacies at work that I didn't understand.  And besides, who cares how a form looks, what counts is that the results are there, just ask Jim Furyk.  But that's the thing, the results aren't there the way they could be.  After an OPS+ of 126 in 2004, Rowand has dipped to 93 and 87 in the last two years.  This spring training, his batting average is doing its best Abraham Nunez impression, hovering well-below .200.  Plus, it appears as if we are not the only ones who have noticed Rowand's unorthodox approach at the plate.  Here's one scout's take on Rowand, via Ken Rosenthal:

"His bat is slow... His impact and power don't seem to be there. He has always had an awkward setup and stance. Now he looks really awkward and muscular. He has no barrel whip... On the flip side, Ryan Howard looks like he can hit 75 homers."

Again, I'm by no means an expert, but that is exactly what I see in Rowand as well.  So Charlie, why don't you do something to loosen him up?  Maybe have him waggle the bat a bit while waiting for the pitch?  Maybe have him tap his foot similar to Chipper Jones?

Anyway, you keep the bottle Charlie, with that bullpen, you are going to need it.

With Excess Starting Pitching, Every Move by Gillick Scrutinized

Newspapers are reporting that Phillies' GM Pat Gillick "dropped by" the Toronto Blue Jays camp in Dunedin, just up the road from Clearwater, yesterday [link 1; link 2].  Both the Blue Jays and the Phillies are saying that it was just a friendly get-together as Gillick had some free time on his hands due to the Phils late exhibition game start against Florida State.

Naturally, the visit caused the trade rumor mill to begin turning again.  With the Phillies having an excess of starting pitchers, interest in Aaron Rowand from other teams but little outfield depth, and an as yet to be filled gaping hole in the bullpen, the speculation was that Gillick's real intention for, you know, just stopping by, whatever, was to evaluate the Blue Jays right fielder, Alex Rios.

The imagined scenario would be that if the Phillies traded Rowand for bullpen help, Jon Lieber would then be traded to the Jays for Rios.  Shane Victorino would likely shift to center field, with Rios taking over in right field.  Below is a comparison of the three players (numbers over 100 are better than average) 2006 OPS+ for measuring offense and out ratio for measuring defense:

      2006:   
            OPS+   CF PMR   RF PMR  
A Rowand      87    101.51    DNP 
A Rios       118     93.17   103.35
S Victorino   92    113.37*  100.37
  * best in baseball
  

On paper, it seems like a good move for the Phillies.  They would get improved play in centerfield, and while there would likely be a slight drop off in defense in right field, there would be a large improvement in offense.  As a matter of fact, Rios' 118 OPS+ is essentially the same as Bobby Abreu's 120 OPS+ with the Phillies in 2006.

But several questions would need to be answered first (besides the obvious "is this deal even being discussed") and they are, one, can we expect the same performance from Rios in 2007 that the Jays experienced in 2006 (a breakthrough year for the 25-year old or a career year?), and two, what effect would removing Aaron Rowand's personality from the Phillies clubhouse have on the team?

The first question is hard to answer and the second is nearly impossible with opinions ranging from catastrophic to negligible and everything in between.  As for Rios, most projection systems think he will have a drop off from 2006, though the amount varies greatly and on top of that, even last year, Rios had a less-than-stellar degree of plate discipline, so it is easy to see the logic behind the projections.

It's a tough scenario to work through, and that is why Pat Gillick is paid the big bucks.  But here's a third question to answer that is also nearly impossible: given the unreliable nature of relief pitching in general, is it really a good idea to trade a known commodity like Rowand?

In Gillick we trust.

[Photo credit: Flickr.com user "peggy"]

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The probabilistic model of range (PMR) out ratios are courtesy of David Pinto's Baseball Musings.  If you can, consider making a donation to his pledge drive.  His site and its resources make baseball on the web a much better place.

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Also floating around in the media today is a report that the Phillies are hypothetically considering using Brett Myers as a closer if the need arises.  My prediction: there will not be any serious consideration for that until the year 2015 or until he comes back from a serious injury, which ever comes first.

Hoping Shane Victorino Can Progress to the Mean

Ask a random Phillies fan what the team's biggest concern is heading into the 2007 season and if you don't get a knee-jerk, "Pat Burrell batting behind Ryan Howard" response fermented by talk-radio hyperbole, the most likely (and correct) response is, "the back-end of the bullpen."  But probably the second biggest concern is offensive production from the outfield (which, technically doesn't make the Pat Burrell response 100% incorrect).

Aaron Rowand's 2004 season is looking more and more like an aberration all the time and while the jury is still out on what type of hitter Shane Victorino will develop into, nearly everyone would agree that at this point, he is at the very least a bit raw at the plate.  Finally, Burrell is, as has been discussed ad nauseum, the inconsistent force (which complements his immovable object routine in the field).

The hope is that the offense provided by one of the better infields in baseball will mask the deficits in the outfield.  But we can do more than hope -- we can speculate, we can project.  Whether that will help or not...

Below is a table of the Phillies' expected starting everyday eight's projected OPS (CHONE, by Sean "Chone" Smith) in comparison to the average starter's OPS in 2006 for each position (as compiled by Jeff Sackmann at The Hardball Times):

            2007     2006
            Proj.  Lg.Avg.   Diff
Rollins     .768    .758    +.010
Victorino   .775    .828    -.053
Utley       .844    .767    +.077
Howard      .980    .882    +.098
Burrell     .846    .845    +.001
Helms       .818    .838    -.020
Rowand      .763    .788    -.025
Ruiz        .753    .777    -.024
        Average difference: +.008  

The first thing that your eye is drawn to is just how much the offense is going to depend on Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.  The second thing you notice is how much below the league average Victorino is in right field.  There's no doubt he'll get to more balls hit to right field than the average right fielder, but we shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking it is going to come close to making up for the deficit in offense.

Probably the third thing you noticed was that Pat Burrell is projected to basically put up a league average OPS for a left fielder.  I'm not sure I buy that, so I looked at several other projection systems and most place Burrell's OPS between .860 and .870, which gets above league average, but is still way down from the .891 OPS he has put up over the last two years.  One has to believe that there is some sort of wrinkle in the systems that marks Burrell lower than they should and that his past performance is more indicative of his future performance.

But the fact remains Victorino is essentially a center fielder miscast as a corner outfielder.  So many stars have to line up, but if the Phils can trade Rowand for a relief pitcher, and Jon Lieber for a Ryan Church-type to platoon with a healthy Jayson Werth (fingers crossed) in right field after shifting Victorino to center, the Phillies will have a much better looking outfield and maybe a slightly better team.

Those are a lot of stars and ifs however.

Anyone Have Any Wood for the Hot Stove? Anyone?

While November and December brought trade rumors fast and furious from all corners of electronic and print media, January has been a slow month, particularly in regards to the Phillies.

As the Most Likely Phillie To Be Traded, rumors for Jon Lieber's final destination are few and far between.  This is surprising on several levels.  While Lieber is no staff ace, he is probably capable of giving a team 25 starts at league average ERA, with little contractual risk -- it's the last year of his contract and he is due "only" $7.5 million, a bargain in today's starting pitching market.  Plus, as we all know, starting pitching is in high-demand around baseball.

From the relatively paltry interest shown in Lieber, we can speculate on several possibilities: (1) the Phillies are asking too much in return for Lieber, (2) league scouts and general managers were not at all impressed by Lieber's 2006 and don't feel he can contribute much in 2007, (3) everyone involved, from general manager Pat Gillick to other general managers around baseball, wants to get to spring training and take inventory before making a deal.

Of those, the last is most likely.  We are just a few weeks now from pitchers and catchers reporting, and so the failures of 2006 are not as fresh in everyone's mind and patience and prudence are taking over.  Indeed, that appears to be exactly the logic San Diego Padres general manager Kevin Towers is using.  The Tribune-Union, a San Diego newspaper ran a story yesterday with quotes from Towers about the rumored Aaron Rowand/Scott Linebrink trade: “It might be something we discuss again later this spring.But right now I want to see what we have in spring training. I want to see how (outfielder) Terrmel Sledge plays and how our bullpen shapes up.”

This example of discretion being the better part of valor would be wise for the Phillies as well.  Trading Rowand would leave the Phillies outfield very, very thin.  Pat Burrell (balky ankle) in left, Shane Victorino in center (technically an unproven commodity), and Jayson Werth (surgically rehabilitated wrist) in right.  Perhaps it's the Phillies who should be waiting to count their chickens.

Unless of course, Gillick has a trade in place for Lieber for an outfielder...

...In Gillick we trust.

Rowand to Miss Five Weeks

Speaking of half full/half empty, at least Aaron Rowand won't be endangering Chase Utley anymore:

ESPN.com - MLB - Report: Phils' Rowand broke ankle in scary collision:

As the Phillies make their push for the NL wild card, they reportedly will have to do it without starting center fielder Aaron Rowand.

Sources told The Philadelphia Daily News that Rowand suffered a broken ankle in a scary outfield collision with teammate Chase Utley on Monday night and will miss at least five weeks.

Anybody check the flights from Buffalo where Michael Bourn and the Red Barons are to Chicago where the Phillies are?  Actually, Bourn is in Florida with Team USA, and, he has a bad hammy.  Great.

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Update: Video of the Utley/Rowand collision courtesy of ESPN/YouTube/Philadelphia Will Do...

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Update II:  Ryan Howard's reaction to the collision [Calkins Media]: “That was [bleeping] scary and you can put [bleeping] into there, too...When you see Rowand flip and land on his head, it could have been a broken neck.”

Root for Rowand

Over the years, Phillies fans have come up with some amusing fan groups that attend games in support of a particular player.  There's The Wolf Pack which dons werewolf masks in support of Randy Wolf.  There is J-Roll's Bakery and of course, the latest edition, Sal's Pal's who put on mustaches and wigs in honor of Sal Fasano.

I can't really ever see myself joining one of these groups.  I think they are great, but they just aren't my style.  However, I might be willing to make an exception if a group forms in honor of Aaron Rowand.  The group could go to every game wearing a nose guard and paint on black eyes.

Look, if we can find a way to form the Padilla Flotilla, I think there has to be enough grassroots support for Rowand's Rooters.

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More on Aaron Rowand :

- The Catch
- Rowand's press conference
- An eerie foreshadowing of The Catch [click on "catch the ball", hat tip to BS&S.com reader Deanna]
- Rowand keeps the clubhouse loose

Early Game Heroics

In case you are finished collecting two of everything and have time to surf the internet, I will pass on the news that the Phillies won Thursday night's matchup with the Mets and therefore, the series as well, two games to one.  The game was called in the mid-fifth inning due to rain.

If you haven't seen the highlight clip yet of Aaron Rowand's catch, put down the computer mouse, pick up the TV remote and go to any sports-related programming.  You will see it.

The scene:  Top of the first inning.  Two outs.  Bases loaded with batters walked by Gavin Floyd, though none have scored yet.  Xavier Nady hits a ball to right center field.  Aaron Rowand leaps on his trusty steed, flying back towards the fence.  He made an over-the-shoulder catch, crashing into the wall, face -- make that nose -- first.

Rowand fell to the ground, but managed to hold onto the ball, he held it up as blood ran out of his nose.  Though it was only the first inning, Harry Kalas exclaimed, "A game saving catch!"  There is no doubt the catch saved three runs, so as it turned out, it really was a game saving catch.

Rowand was taken to Thomas Jefferson University Hospital -- the camera crews followed him there, documenting the fact that he walked in under his own power -- where it was determined his nose was broken.

Rowand is truly a hard-nosed player, but only in the figurative sense.  In the literal sense, his nose is now much less hard.

Another hard nosed player decided, in the bottom of the first inning, that Rowand's sacrifice should not go in vain.  Chase Utley launched his eighth home run of the year into the right field seats to give the Phillies a 1-0 lead.

Later, the Phils would extend the lead to 2-0 when Shane Victorino, Rowand's replacement, stretched a single into a double, and then scored on a David Bell single.  Almost as soon as Gavin Floyd retired the Mets in the top of the fifth inning, the sky opened up, play was halted, and eventually the game was called.

Congratulations Aaron, you just became a Philadelphia icon.

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Update: The 700 Level has video, via YouTube.com.

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Update:

Cut Me Mick/Squeeze it Mick: The Daily News has a great account of the aftermath of the catch: