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Your 2009 Philadelphia Phillies Rotation

Not too shabby:

Cliff Lee, LHP

Cole Hamels, LHP

Joe Blanton, RHP

Jamie Moyer, LHP

J.A. Happ, LHP

Kind of makes you wonder where Rodrigo Lopez and Pedro Martinez fit into the picture.  Could another deal be in the works?

Cliff Lee It Is!

Per Ken Rosenthal:

The Phillies have reached agreement with the Indians on a trade that would bring them left-hander Cliff Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco for Class A right-hander Jason Knapp, Class AAA right-hander Carlos Carrasco, shortstop Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson, according to major-league sources.

The deal is pending a review of medical records.

In my mind, this is a great deal.

Lee is not Roy Halladay, but he’s only a small notch below, particularly when you consider he is cheaper and younger, and, the Phillies did not have to part with J.A. Happ or Kyle Drabek or Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor, all of whom are the cream of the Phillies farm crop.

Time is really the determining factor in all trades, particularly those involving young prospects, but as of right now, this looks like a pretty good job by Ruben Amaro Jr. and his lieutenants.

Cliff Lee? [Updated]

Jeff Blair of the Toronto Globe & Mail is reporting that according to a minor league source, the Phillies have obtained Cliff Lee of the Cleveland Indians in return for Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson and Jason Donald.

Nice little deal if it’s true.

Stay tuned.

Update [12:26 PM]:  Source tells Todd Zolecki of mlb.com/phillies.com that there's "nothing imminent" and that focus is certainly heavier on the Lee-front now than the Halladay-front.

Update [12:29]: Ken Rosenthal of foxsports.com is reporting that Jason Knapp as well as Carrasco, Donald and Marson have been offered to the Indians for Lee.

Update [12:31]:  Several minutes ago, Cliff Lee was on ESPN 950 and he had not heard of anything coming soon either.

Update [12:46]: Rosenthal is also reporting an additional player may be sent to the Phillies.

Update [1:54]: Done deal!

Where There’s Smoke…

Beat writers that follow the Phillies are reporting via Twitter that Carlos Carrasco has been scratched from his 11 AM start today in Columbus.  Jason Donald and Lou Marson are also out of the lineup, however, Michael Taylor is in fact starting for the AAA Iron Pigs.

Stay tuned!

Indians: Phils Just Won’t Part With Drabek

From the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, regarding discussions between the Phillies and Indians to trade 2008 Cy Young winner Cliff Lee:

The Indians have been scouting the Phillies' minor league system. They like right-hander Kyle Drabek, but the Phillies apparently won't part with Drabek. Toronto ran into the same problem regarding Drabek in their conversations about Halladay.

"You never know, but I think we're done," said one Indians source.

The article doesn’t reveal what other players may or may not have been discussed in addition to Drabek, so it’s hard to know exactly what offers may have been made and rejected by each side.

Still, at this point, you have to wonder if the Phillies aren’t over-valuing their own prospects a little bit, given that they keep running into the same opinions from other teams.

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Another Legend Leaves

Phillies Front Office in ‘Tug of War’

A “veteran scout”, who seems to have heard some scuttlebutt, tells Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci:

"There's a little bit of a tug of war in Philadelphia. [Pat] Gillick and [manager Charlie]Manuel are basically saying, 'C'mon. Let's go get him. We don't know if Drabek and [J.A.] Happ can help us get to another World Series. We know that Halladay can.' The player development guys and Ruben [Amaro] are more tied to the guys who have been in their system for years."

Interesting.  First of all, it supports my theory from earlier today that Charlie Manuel only likes the idea of Zach Duke to fill out the Phillies rotation in the event J.A. Happ is lost in a trade for Roy Halladay [link].

Second, just because there are two factions in the front office doesn’t mean there’s trouble.  As long as the two sides respect each other’s opinions, and we’ve never had any indication of anything otherwise, then it’s nothing more than a healthy discussion.

Thirdly, and this is nothing more than speculation, how can Ruben Amaro in the end, go against the manager and general manager from last year’s World Champions?  Not that Amaro has to do whatever those two tell him, but those two opinions certainly carry some gravitas.

[Ooooon the other hand, remember in an early episode of “The Pen” where Charlie Manuel told Ruben Amaro that Jack Taschner had some real control problems but Amaro kept him on the big league club coming out of spring training anyway?]

Stay tuned, things are coming fast and furious…

Jays Relenting on Happ?

To answer that question, you have to answer this one:  Is Joel Sherman engaging in reporting or speculating when he writes in a blog post at the New York Post’s website:

At the moment, if they deal with Philadelphia, Toronto has said it wants Happ, too, in addition to Drabek because the Jays want to be able to put someone on the roster immediately who is part of this kind of trade. But if Philadelphia is willing to give up Drabek, the Jays might relent on Happ.

If the Phillies can get away with not giving up Happ AND Drabek, then I think you have to make the deal right there and then, no questions asked, as our friend from Hawaii might say.  But it is unclear from the way Sherman wrote the entry if he is reporting that possible willingness or if he is just speculating on it based upon how things have gone to this point.

Charlie Likes Zach

Sounds like a Saved by the Bell plot gone awfully wrong, but no, it’s actually worse.

There are reports by baseball reporter John Perrotto [hat tip mlbtr.com] that Phillies manager Charlie Manuel is lobbying GM Ruben Amaro to trade for Zach Duke of the Pirates.

Whoa.  And that’s a bad, dejected “whoa”, not a “holy cow that’s great news!” kind of “whoa”.

What we can only hope is that 1) Ruben Amaro is rolling his eyes at the request as much as we are, or, in what would be an interested series of moves if Amaro can pull them off, 2) Duke would be obtained if the Phillies have to give up J.A. Happ for Roy Halladay, making Duke a 4th/5th starter.

A back-end type of starter is all that Zach Duke is, and likely all he’ll ever be.  Duke, age 26, has never had a full season in his 5 year career in which his strikeout rate per 9 innings pitched has been over 5.0.  This year it is 4.8.  I’m sorry, but you can’t rely on your defense that much and expect consistently good results.  Hence Duke’s ERA’s of 4.47, 5.53 and 4.82 in 2006 through 2008.

Jays Set Price for Halladay, Phillies Haggle

One reason there has been such rumor-mongering centering around Roy Halladay is that no one knew, until last evening, what the Blue Jays wanted in return.  This led to all sorts of rampant speculation.

However, last evening, Andy Martino reported that the Blue Jays have asked for J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown.  This morning, reports by Jayson Stark indicate the Phillies balked at the price, but that the two teams are discussing eight players overall that would be included in some sort of 3 for 1 or 4 for 1 type of deal.

In my opinion, which counts for exactly 100% less than that of Ruben Amaro, Jr., I would be willing to meet the Happ/Drabek/Brown price, but not right away.  I’d try to haggle Blue Jays GM J.P. Riccardi down a bit, perhaps offering Carlos Carrasco and/or Jason Donald and/or Lou Marson instead of Happ or Drabek.  And, who knows, maybe that is exactly what Amaro is doing.

Some may think Brown should be kept, but as I see it, he is expendable, simply because he is still quite far from the majors.  Three years perhaps.  Michael Taylor, on the other had, could conceivably make the big league squad when rosters expand in September, during which he could be used to spell Raul Ibanez.  It seems to me that Ibanez is only going to need more physical relief next year and the year after, and Taylor could be the one to fill that role, then become a full-timer when Ibanez leaves after the 2011 season.

Again, I’d do the Happ/Drabek/Brown-for-Halladay deal, but not without trying to get the price a tad lower first.

Sad News

Via Igglesblog.com comes news that Jim Johnson is officially stepping down as the Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator due to his battle with cancer.  Sean McDermott, formerly the defensive secondary backs coach is now the defensive coordinator.

Obviously the main concern is Johnson’s health.  Here’s to hoping his body fights the cancer the way his defenses blitzed the quarterback.

Blue Jays G.M. Spinning Things His Way, Possibly Overplaying His Hand

Several years ago, a few Phillies-centric bloggers, including myself, met Jim Salisbury of the Inquirer at a ballgame.  It was late-July and during the conversation, Salisbury mentioned that he was trying to figure out what the Phillies were going to do at the trade deadline.  He had a analytical look in his eye, almost a squint, similar to that of a TV detective trying to piece together a case.

Unfortunately for Salisbury and his peers, he probably isn’t likely to apply the magic amount of pressure that would illicit a dramatic confessional like the TV detectives manage to garner on a weekly basis [spoofed wonderfully by Will Ferrell, Heather Graham and Mike Myers].

But that doesn’t mean that Salisbury isn’t passing on anything useful to us in his column.  In today’s piece, we get a feel for the negotiations and posturing that’s going on behind the scenes between the Phillies and Blue Jays in regards to a possible trade for Roy Halladay [link].  Blue Jays GM J.P. Riccardi, in particular, is really puffing up his chest when he says:

"All the teams we're talking to have the resources to get the player," Ricciardi told The Inquirer during the Blue Jays' 5-4 loss to the Indians yesterday at the Rogers Centre. "But like I said at the beginning, someone has to have the stomach for this, and I don't know if there's anyone out there that does. That doesn't mean they're wrong or we're right. It's just the way it is."

What everyone has to realize is that Riccardi’s intestinal fortitude comes into play as well.  The onus isn’t just on the Phillies to make a decision.  If Riccardi stands too firm now, he risks not making any deal at all this season, and there is no other time in which his bargaining power will be this high.  For example, when the Texas Rangers dealt Mark Teixeira to the Braves with 18 months remaining on his contract, similar to Halladay, they received 5 well-respected prospects.  When the Braves then traded Teixeira to the Angels a year later, all they got in return was light-hitting first baseman Casey Kotchman and a “AAAA” reliever.  That’s quite a difference.

So Riccardi can posture and spin this thing all he wants, but if he pushes the Phillies and other teams too far, he might be the one left without a chair when the music stops, not his potential trade partners.

A Legacy is at Stake

Buster Olney of ESPN.com writes eight reasons why the Phillies will end up with Roy Halladay by the end of the month.  Many of the reasons are what we all know already, but #7 is interesting on another level:

The Phillies can create the kind of legacy that no Philadelphia sports franchise has had since the days of Connie Mack. At least a couple of folks within the Phillies organization privately argue that the Phillies don't need to trade for Halladay, that the team can ride last year's success for a while. Even without Halladay, one executive argues, these Phillies are good enough to contend for a title in 2009, and this is accurate. But with Halladay, the Phillies could be a buzz saw for at least the next 15 months and could carve out a special place in the hearts of a sports-crazed city. The Phillies' front office should consider how the steady interest in the Red Sox has exploded across the U.S. in the aftermath of Boston's championships. Phillies Nation, perhaps?

First of all, who in the Phillies organization is arguing that they should just ride out the 2008 wave?  I’m hoping that was something Olney inadvertantly took out of context.  Lets chalk it up to that and move on, because I would hate to think there is any complacency within Citizens Bank Park.

It’s the legacy that interests me, as a fan.  I don’t just want to tell my grandkids I saw the Phillies win the World Series back in aught 8, I want to tell them about the dynasty we had in those years.

Obviously, if the Phillies give up too much to obtain Halladay, it can hurt the chances of a prolonged dynasty, but I do believe there is a happy medium that can be reached between winning now and later.

With Friends Like Shane Victorino, Who Needs Enemies?

Take a look at how Shane Victorino greeted Jayson Werth after Werth hit the game winning homer in last evening’s 13 inning marathon with the Cubs:

Looks like Carlos Ruiz is thoroughly enjoying Shane’s jab.

[Photo credit and hat tip to Big League Stew]

Phillies Searching for More than Just an Ace

Many reports/rumors have the Phillies scouts looking for relief pitching, but now there are also reports that the Phillies have been interested in Josh Willingham of the Washington Nationals [hat tip mlbtraderumors.com].

Remember how badly Kyle Kendrick didn’t want to be traded to Japan in the spring training prank last year?  That’s probably how badly Willingham would love to be traded from the bottom-feeding Nats to the Phillies.

Willingham is a right-handed batter with experience playing the corner outfield positions, first base and in a pinch, catcher.  With a career 121 OPS+, Willingham would certainly fit in nicely as the primary right-handed bat off the bench, certainly much better than strikeout-machine John Mayberry and even more certainly Eric Bruntlett, whose beard has more pop. [By the way, Bruntlett actually as a 6 OPS+.  Six!  That means he is 94% worse at the plate than the average National Leaguer!]

Willingham is kind of pricey at $3 million, but since the Phillies are selling out every home game between now and when my two-year old starts college, they can probably afford it.  No word on what the Nats would want in return, however, it would most likely be a pitching prospect.

The Case for Halladay

With each passing day, the Phillies look more and more like the eventual winners of the 2009 National League Eastern Division.  They’ve won 13 of their last 14, hold a 6.5 game lead, and while a return to earth at some point is all but certain, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which the Phils don’t come away with it.

Some might say this makes the need for Roy Halladay less pressing, and I can see the point, particularly as far as the regular season is concerned.  However, I think I speak for many fans when I say a division title is not what I’m looking for.

This Phillies team has a chance to make history and win, not just the 2008 World Series, but a few more.  In order to do that, the road would be a lot easier through the playoffs with a great rotation and right now, you have to fear the rotation is only adequate for the marathon of the regular season, not the sprint of the playoffs.  The Phillies rotation simply can’t match-up – on paper at least – with what teams like the San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers or Boston Red Sox can bring to a series.

Remember 2001 with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson throwing the Arizona Diamondbacks on their backs and winning the World Series?  With a rotation featuring Cole Hamels [assuming he becomes Cole Hamels again] and Roy Halladay, plus their vaunted offense, can’t you see the Phillies plowing through the playoffs in a similar manner?

This isn’t to say making the deal will be easy, nor will it guarantee another World Series title.  And, GM Ruben Amaro has to find a way to land Halladay without stripping the Phillies of any chance of competing in 2011 and beyond.

In Ruben we must trust.

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I can’t help but think that the better J.A. Happ pitches, the more willing the Phillies might be to include Kyle Drabek and not Happ in a deal for Halladay.

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Not only did GM-emeritus Pat Gillick scout the Blue Jays and Roy Halladay all weekend, he also spoke with the Blue Jays team physician about Halladay’s health.

Hard to Believe, Web Surfers

Please, excuse the fact that this will be the second consecutive entry on this site that concerns yours truly, but I just wanted to point something out:

Today marks the 5-year anniversary of the birth of this site.

To be honest, I find it hard to believe the Internet is around five years, much less this little old place.  I’ve had a lot of fun with this hobby over the years, and what’s even more amazing to think about is everything that’s happened in regards to this site’s main focus --Phillies baseball.

Back in the summer of 2004, the World Champion Philadelphia Fighting Phillies were still finding their way, if not lost in the desert.  Ed Wade was the general manager, Larry Bowa was the manager, Chase Utley was scrounging for playing time behind Placido Polanco and Ryan Howard was blocked by Jim Thome.

It’s been an amazing half-decade.  On the one hand, I’ve made some very good friends as a result of this site, and on the other, I’ve started a family and maintained a real profession  in spite of it.

I thank all of you for stopping by here and the Pheeds page on a regular basis.