When Kyle Kendrick was called up to the Phillies in 2007 after just twelve[!] starts at AA Reading, it was only to be for a spot start. Two at the most.
But the kid did well, lasted six and gave up three, and so he got another start. This one he won and again gave up three in six. manager Charlie Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee decided to keep going to the hot and by the time the season was over, Kendrick was 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA and one of the biggest reasons the Phillies came from behind to win the NL East.
Despite a very shaky spring training, it looked like Kendrick was picking up in 2008 where he left off in 2007 -- missing few bats but doing a good job of hitting the bottom of the barrel and using the damn good defense behind him to gobble up those grounders. But there were signs the league was figuring Kendrick out and as the season wore on, Kendrick wore down. By his own admission, Kendrick had hit the wall and eventually, Manuel and Dubee removed him from the rotation.
Many analysts point to several factors in Kendrick’s fall. One of course is that he hit a wall, understandable for a 23-year old who skipped several grades in the minors. Another factor is Kendrick’s reluctance to use his secondary pitches such as his slider and changeup, allowing hitters to sit on the fastball. All are valid, but there’s another factor too. Kendrick’s bread and butter, his sinking, tailing fastball wasn’t sinking and tailing the way it did the year before.
Below is a plot of Kendrick’s pitches from a start on April 16, 2008 against the Astros, a day in which he struck out five batters, a high total for Kendrick even when going well, walked one, allowing only four hits and one run in seven innings. The plot, as noted, is pitch velocity versus horizontal movement [click to enlarge].
Based upon the high velocity, we know that the clump of markings in the upper left the chart are Kendrick’s fastballs, and the amount of horizontal break is extraordinary.
Now, take a look at a similar horizontal movement versus velocity plot. This one is taken from Kendrick’s start on September 9, 2008, in which he was taken out behind the woodshed by the Marlins – 7 earned runs, 1.1 innings pitched [again, click to enlarge].
You can see that while the fastball still tails a fair amount, it isn’t nearly to the degree it was back in April. Other plots show that in the two starts, Kendrick’s fastball had similar amounts of vertical movement, but it’s really the difference horizontal movement that jumps out. And for Kendrick, the type of pitcher who skirts a fine line between success and failure, the difference is more than enough to cause problems.
Now that we know a little bit more about the extent of Kendrick’s problems – not just the fatigue or the lack of a changeup, but also a fastball with less movement – the next question becomes, what can he do about it?
Well, I’m by no means a pitching coach, and even if I stayed in a Holiday Inn Express for a few days in a row, I still couldn’t play one on TV. But I can tell you that part of the problem may have to do with Kendrick’s release point. Below we’ve got two plots, one of Kendrick’s release points on April 16th, the next September 9th. Notice the difference?
Two observations. One, the release points are centered differently in the two starts and secondly, the release points appear to be more consistent in the April 16th start than the September 9th start.
Release points are important for pitchers. Hitting the same one time after time is a key to consistent pitch movement, velocity and location. If Kendrick can tighten up his release point, it may be part of his hopeful resurgence this spring.
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Obviously, looking at the plots, this analysis could not have been done without the PitchFX Tool at BrooksBaseball.net. The Internet is a wonderful thing.
