Ironically, Rowand's Deal Might be Talking Points for Burrell's Agents

Last offseason, the talk of the town was in regards to whether or not the Phillies would be able to retain the services of Aaron Rowand, or if he would leave via free-agency.

Almost everyone assumed that Rowand, after a career year in 2007, would most likely leave.  As it turns out, that is exactly what happened.  The San Francisco Giants ponied up $60 million dollars over the course of 5 seasons, an offer the Phillies wisely declined to match.

This offseason there is a similar discussion, but this time it pertains to Pat Burrell.  Will he stay or will he go?  In both cases, the two players wanted to stay and in both cases, it was/is pretty likely that another team will come in with a can't-refuse type offer.  So the question becomes, can the Phillies offer enough to allow Burrell to turn down the insanely large offer that will surely come and still sleep at night?

If Rowand received $12 million every year for half a decade, what is Burrell worth?  Probably a lot more.  Take a look at they're park and league adjusted OPS over the last few years:

     2005 2006 2007 2008  
Burrell  128  122  127  125 
Rowand   93  86  123  94

It's not even close, Burrell is a much more productive hitter.  The difference between those two in terms of offensive production is probably in the neighborhood of 20 to 25 runs over the course of a season.

Defensively, the comparisons are harder because the two play different positions.  We know that Burrell is pretty sure-handed at everything he gets to and throws to the infield pretty well, the problem being he doesn't get to much.  Rowand, on the other hand, doesn't have much of an arm but certainly has better [if not overrated] range.  But there's no way that Burrell's defensive liabilities negate his clear advantage in offensive performance.

If I'm representing Pat Burrell, or any other outfielder this offseason, my point of reference in negotiations, over and over again will be Aaron Rowand in 2007.  Because if Rowand received that much, then even at a hometown discount, Burrell has to be worth at least, what, $50-$55 million over four years?

We know Pat wants to stay, and we know the Phillies want to keep him, but he's going to have to have a whole lot of willpower to turn down the myriad of high-priced offers that are going to come his way.