Considering Arburrelltration

Monday is the deadline for teams to offer their free agents arbitration.  By most accounts, the Phillies will offer arbitration to Jamie Moyer, a no-brainer since they would probably prefer to keep him on one-year deals at this point in his career.

Pat Burrell is a different story however, and there are conflicting reports as to whether or not the Phillies will offer arbitration to him.  Todd Zolecki of the Inquirer reported this morning that the Phillies will not offer it, while Ken Mandel of MLB.com/Phillies.com reported that the Phillies will offer it.

There are reasons not to, for instance, Burrell could win enough money in arbitration to represent a raise over the $14 million he made in 2008.

But an arbitration deal would only be for one year, and it is likely that Burrell will end up receiving and accepting a multi-year offer from another team.  If that is the case, the Phillies will then receive two draft picks as compensation.

The smart move is to offer him arbitration.  Being "stuck" with Burrell for a season at a salary higher than what the Phillies would like, or, losing him and picking up two draft picks are preferable scenarios to the one where he leaves via free agency and the Phillies have nothing to show for it.

If the Phillies decline arbitration on Monday, then the spin we hear from the front office scoffing at the idea that the team has a fixed salary budget can't be believed.  Because unless their is a fixed budget in place, there's no reason not to take this small gamble.