From John Perrotto at Baseball Prospectus [subscription required]:
NL Rumors and Rumblings: There are some close to the Phillies’ situation who believe the team will trade first baseman Ryan Howard before next season rather than risk seeing him get a significant bump over his $10 million salary in arbitration.
Well, that's an interesting little nugget. How much that nugget is worth depends upon, first and foremost, who the "sources close to the Phillies situation" are.
It's very possible that the slow start Howard has had represents the slow decline everyone expects in his game as he nears the Big Three-Oh. If the Phillies think that is true, and if they just really don't have the financial resources to retain him and Cole Hamels, then perhaps a trade in the offseason is indeed the best thing to do.
It's worth also depends in part upon whether or not it sounds like a sensible thing to do and at this point, despite Howard's escalating salary and the large peaks and valleys in his game, it's hard to see how it is. Trading Howard and the expected loss of Pat Burrell to free agency would debilitate the offense considerably.
So unless Burrell retained or replaced by another free agent who they know will give them 30 HR and 95 RBI the way Burrell does every year, and the return on Howard yields a starting pitcher who immediately and significantly improves the starting rotation, it's hard to see how a trade makes sense for the Fightins.
Probably the best course of action for the Phillies to take is, believe it or not, just what they've been doing. Keep the nucleus of Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Cole Hamels together as long as possible and in the meantime, hope you can somehow acquire or develop enough pitching to put them over the hump.
