Continuing the "Advancing the..." series at BS&S.com, we turn to Jeff Sackmann, contributor to BrewCrewball.com, The Hardball Times, Beyond the Boxscore, and Heater Magazine, as well as creator of the wonderful sites Minorleaguesplits.com and Collegesplits.com.
By the way, as a quid pro quo, I answered some questions for Jeff at BrewCrewball.com which will appear later today at 2PM EST.
-----------------
Here in Philadelphia, we have Ryan Howard, a hulking, slugging, strikeout-prone, home-run launching, clumsy fielding first-baseman, who reminds people of Cecil Fielder, a player who had some great years in his late-20's and was done at the age of 34. Presently, Howard's batting average sits south of .200 and people are beginning to wonder if a long-term deal might not be the best thing for the Phillies, rather, go year-to-year in arbitration and let him walk as a free agent at the age of 32. Similarly, the Brewers have a similar first baseman whose batting average also sits south of .200 and who reminds people of Cecil Fielder even more than Howard, for obvious reasons. Are there the same misgivings about along-term deal in Milwaukee?
The bigger concern around here is whether Prince--and his agent, Scott Boras--would even consider a long-term deal before he hits free agency. There's also the possibility that his defense will deteriorate; he keeps himself in very good shape and is a better all-around player than his dad was, but he isn't a very good defender, and that's more likely to get worse than get better. As for the batting average, Fielder has been hitting the ball hard even when the results haven't come, so I don't think that a slow start is causing any reevaluation.
Jeff, you've been consulting with major league teams recently. Without breaking any confidentiality agreements, what can you tell us about the work you've been doing? Most importantly, are you having fun with it?
My partner, Kent Bonham, and I aggregate and analyze college baseball stats. It's more or less the same project as Retrosheet, only updated daily, and covering about 350 college teams at this point. Sometimes it's fun, but there's always a danger involved in turning a hobby into a job.
J.J. Hardy is killing my fantasy team. Which is more of an aberration, his 2007 season or his start for '08?
He's better than his .214 batting average would suggest, but he isn't as good as his ridiculous April of last year. 275/325/425 seems about right to me, and while it might not give your fantasy team what it needs, it (and Hardy's solid defense) is enough for the Brewers.
What pitchers are the Phillies likely to see in the series with the Brewers and what can we expect from them?
You've lucked out. Ben Sheets is missing his start, so it's Dave Bush Wednesday. Bush historically has strong peripherals, but he has a unique talent for allowing the double to the gap. He pitches to contact, and as his pitch count climbs, pitching to contact starts to look a bit like batting practice. Jeff Suppan goes Thursday, and he's the same guy he's been for years. A pretty good bet for six innings, and not a very good bet for dominance.
When the Phillies meet the Brewers, the Brewers will have just finished up a 3-game set with the Cardinals. Are they for real?
The Cards are better than I expected, but I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop with their starting pitching. Maybe I'm just stubborn, but I refuse to believe that Braden Looper is even a reasonable option in a major league rotation. And they're getting good production from what should be a very weak bottom of the order, which usually consists of guys like Yadi Molina, Adam Kennedy, and Cesar Izturis. I've
adjusted my guess from 75 to 80 wins, but it'll be awhile before I'm willing to go higher than that.
It's been five years. Would it be possible for Randall Simon safely walk down the street in Milwaukee?
Oh yeah. I think if he brought a case of Miller Lite he'd be welcome at most of the pre-game tailgates.
