Advancing the Washington Nationals
Beginning with every series the Phillies have this season, we'll interview a writer who covers the opposing team. The interviews will be called "Advancing the ________". "Advancing" as in "advance scouting."
As part of our Opening Day Series, I interviewed Charlie, the author of The Nationals Review about, what else, the Washington Nationals. Oh, and also Teddy Roosevelt.
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The Nationals outfielders hardly resemble the ones from '07. How are the changes shaping up?
For a team that hasn't had a CF since they've moved to DC, it's real exciting to see Milledge out there. He appears to be ready to play full time, and has already displayed the kind of gap to gap line drive hitting that we expected. Dukes has yet to show what he is capable of, although his power his definitely there, he'll need some time. Wily Mo should spend most of his time demolishing lefties, while avoided righty starters. Either way, all potential aside, it looks stronger than starting Nook Logan, Chris Snelling and Ryan Church.
Ten years from now, will Ryan Zimmerman be known as a light hitting thirdbaseman who can really pick it or will he be known more as a great all-around player? [Ed. note: This question was asked before Zimmerman hit the walk-off game-winning home-run in the very first game every held at Nationals Park on Sunday night.]
Ten years from now Ryan Zimmerman will be considered a great all around player. At only 22 he's already shown that much. The question is whether he can hit .290 and 25 HRs or .325 and 35 HRs.
Manny Acta seems to be pretty popular in the Natosphere. Where does he stand in terms of the league's managers?
Manny is extremely well-liked among his players, the media, and the team ownership. He is a hands on guy who throws BP, spends hours in spring training going over baserunning at each base for all his players, and isn't afraid to say what he means. After one season he's shown that he can motivate a team and manage well, while showing the patience and diligence needed to coach a young team. Ranking him among the rest of the league is a bit premature... but I'd still take him over Dusty Baker.
Complete the following sentences.... "The Nationals will finish _____th in the NL East, despite great _________. __________ was their downfall."
The Nationals will finish 4th in the NL East, despite great young talent, a solid roster and a great bullpen. Lack of major league-ready starting pitching was their downfall.
Who wins a footrace, the Teddy Roosevelt mascot or the Phillie Phanatic?
I've gotta take Teddy over the Phanatic on this one. TR was the youngest president, an avid outdoorsman, and scaled San Juan Hill with the Rough Riders. The Phanatic has a little too much junk in the trunk, as evidenced by his 90" waistline. Now if you had asked about racing that bookworm Thomas Jefferson, I might take the Phanatic.
Zimmerman is 24, not 22, Charlie. Zimmerman could have easily been the type of player who hits better than .325 with 35 HRs--a perrenial MVP candidate, in fact-- if they Nats hadn't been in such a rush to get him to the majors. He was drafted in 2005 out of UVA, played in the majors that year (20 games) and was a full time MLBer in 2006. The reason why the Nats did this was entirely for public relations. The big league team wanted a guy on their roster who came from a local college so they could keep the fans interested and generate some excitement. You think the Phillies could pull that one over the Phans eyes and get away with it?
Put it this way. Was Chase Utley the Phillies starting second baseman in 2001, the year after they drafted him from UCLA? Would Utley be the player he is today without three seasons in the minors to learn his craft? The Nats aren't making those kinds of mistakes today, since someone actually owns the team now. (What a concept!)
Posted by: Squonk64 | March 31, 2008 at 11:03 AM
Here's a real "Advancing the Nationals," Philly-style...
The Nationals outfielders hardly resemble the ones from '07. How are the changes shaping up?
What I think you are asking is "what the hell are the Nationals doing trading for such troubled souls?" All I can say is Nats seem to think acquiring "troubled souls" like Dmitri Young who, I agree, performed very well last year, are somehow a great idea.
(Article interruption: Don Sutton, now the color analysis for the Nats, was just shown on the TV. He is dressed like some "New Age" monk. Black suit, black vest, white turtleneck, dyed yellow (not blonde--yellow) hair. JEEZ.... WTF?!?)
What I think you are asking is "why TF" would anyone actually go out and acquire "talents" link Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes? The answer is the Nats are trying to maximize their current talent by acquiring cheap and easily disposable (in political terms) talent because, frankly, they are going nowhere for at least the next three seasons.
You also have to remember (I am not playing the race card, but the fact is) that The District is one of the (if not the) most heavily African American, major cities around. (Article Interruption, Phillies 1-0. YEAH.) Bringing in a bunch of AAs with street cred works here. If "troubled souls" work anywhere, they work in this city.
This is actually good business smarts for a bunch of white, jewish guys whose previous experience is managing a bunch of malls. Don't read it as anything long term. Then again, the Nats did sign Dmitri Young long term. The same Dmitri who showed up at spring training weighing more than 300 pounds.
OK. Maybe they aren't that smart.
Sidebar--I can't help but point out how much the current Mets look a lot like the failed 2005 Nationals lineup. Those that weren't proud members of the 2005 Washington Nationals are old and now are, or soon will be, on the DL. Don't expect anything good from the Mets this year. I agree with those that pick the Braves as the NL East winner. Not that I agree the Braves will be the winners. Anyone who picks the Braves is on the right path, they understand that the Mets are old, will get hurt a lot, and have no B-plan. Having no B-plan is certainly traditional for the Mets. But picking the Braves over the Phillies? Come on, now...
Ten years from now, will Ryan Zimmerman be known as a light hitting thirdbaseman who can really pick it or will he be known more as a great all-around player?
I think I answered this before. The Nats have done Zimmerman a great injustice.
(Article interruption: Paul Lo Cuca just got hit by a pitch. The Nats broadcast just said, "there are few places where fans will delight in a player possibly being injured." Somehow they (the Nats broadcasters) forget Chase Utley last year.)
Another article interruption: They then go on to commend Ruiz for losing a pitch low. "Great defensive catcher," they say, because the guy at third didn't score. A Philly RXN? WHAT THEY HECK WAS THAT BASERUNNER THINKING!! The Nats could have tied it if the runner on third had a head on his shoulders.)
The good news is, the Nats now have an owner. (As I said, a novel concept, I know, that a for profit company have an owner. Credit MLB for creating this wonder.) They seem committed to the future while scraping by at the moment. That is the right strategy. Only time will tell if they have the talent in the front office to do it right.
Manny Acta seems to be pretty popular in the Natosphere. Where does he stand in terms of the league's managers?
I can't say. It's not like we have critical press coverage down here in DC. Powder puff and feel good seems to be how The Post and the Mooney Times deal with things. The players seem to like Acta, and he certainly made more of his pitching staff last year than he really had. But without a critical press crew doing the hard work for us, to give any valid judgement worth a rats ---.
Complete the following sentences.... "The Nationals will finish _____th in the NL East, despite great _________. __________ was their downfall."
The Nationals will finish fourth in the NL East, <> because the Fish stink more.
Who wins a footrace, the Teddy Roosevelt mascot or the Phillie Phanatic?
OK. One rare time when I actually agree with Charlie. Teddy would win. But not for the reason stated. Here's how I see it play out.
I see the Phanatic running down first base, leading the race aound the bases because Teddy, as usual, tripped at home plate and took 30 seconds to get up and reorient himself. Then the Phanatic sees a gorgeous blonde in a miniskirt above the first place dugout. (OK, my fantasy could only happen in Philly, because every woman in DC wears ankle length dresses. But keep with me. OK?)
Meantime, Teddy trips over first base.
The Phanatic goes over and dances with her for, what, 30 seconds? Suddenly he realizes he is supposed to be racing. (The Phanatic does have a short attention span, come on , let's admit it.) He hops off the first base dugout, only to get distracted by the umpire at first base. A stare down occurs. Belly throwing occurs. Big kiss to the first base umpire from the Phanatic. Then he again realizes, wait! There is a race on.
In the meantime, Teddy has tripped running between first and second. Four times. It takes him another 30 second to get up each time.
(OK, readers, I agree this has gone on far to long. But if you disagree, you obviously don't understand either mascot. Story continues...)
The Phanatic passes Teddy rounding second. Teddy, surprisingly, does not trip over second base.
The Phanatic rounds third, then sees some "head to toe" readhead flashing her, well, koochie, above the third base dugout. He pauses, but when he sees her kissing her lady friend, he's there. Game over.
Teddy, of course tries to find some way to lose. Tries every possible way to lose. But seeing the Phanatic "getting it on" with what is now seven lovely ladies above the third base dugout, he resigns himself to winning his first race, ever.
(Article intermission: Don Sutton just called the pitch way up and in on Utley as 'Oooohhhh. Good call." Dumb---. I know your not on TBS anymore, but a pitch up and in by a foot is a ball, not a strike. That is NOT a good call.)
OK. Hope you all can laugh a bit and get a better perspective on the DC baseball scene.
(Article end. Utley at third, Howard at first. None out. Took four innings to write this.)
Posted by: Squonk64 | March 31, 2008 at 05:02 PM
Posted by: Charlie | March 31, 2008 at 08:24 PM
Posted by: Tom G, ballssticksstuff.com | March 31, 2008 at 09:22 PM
But, Charlie, Charlie, Charlie. Let me explain myself better. I agree totally with your assessment that Ryan Zimmerman burned up the Sally (low A) and Eastern Leagues. I agree. I live here in the DC area and am a Nats fan. I am on your side. (JEEZ, these out-of-towners have thin skin on these Philly boards.) Zimmerman is a great talent.
But most people in Philadelphia are savvy enough to realize you shouldn't take a kid out of college, who is used to playing anywhere from 70-90 games a year (up to about 65 games in about 4 months of college ball, plus another 25 games for summer league play, June through mid-August), and expect 162 games out of him. One of the things kids get in the minors, besides instruction and learning their craft, is getting their bodies adjusted to playing every day from mid February through (hopefully) the end of October. The later point is something that can't be rushed.
Take the Phillies #1 2007 pick, Joe Savery, for instance. The Phils put him in Short Season A (four rungs below where the Nats put Zimmerman, by and large, straight out of college). Why? Because a young body isn't used to playing every day. And what did the Phillies do? They used Savery in seven (7) of the seventy five-some Crosscutters games from the mid-June to early-September schedule. Why? Because he had been overworked in College. His body wasn't used to it, and rather than flame him out early, that went slow. Savery was then sent to the Arizona Fall League. Why? Because he will skip Low-A ball and be a full time pitcher in High-A ball this year, he's rested enough, and the Phillies wanted him to get used to better competition and, probably more importantly, pitching at a time when he's usually hauling textbooks in his backpack. This year is Savery's test. Even if he burns up the High-A competition, the Phils might not send him to AA. They want to test, be cautious, and not burn him out. If he does well, this year, he may skip AA next year and go right to AAA.
Where the Nats failed is they put Zimmerman in Low-A, then AA, then the majors fresh out of college. There was no pause or caution in what they did. Forget the risk of ongoing injury they placed on Zimmerman by rushing him. What were Zimmerman's stats his second full year as the Nats's full-time third baseman? 0.266 BA, 107 OPS+, 14 HR, and 91 RBIs. What were Utley's stats his second full season as the Phillies second baseman? 0.309 BA, 125 OPS+, 32 HR, 103 RBIs, an All Star appearance, and seventh in the MVP voting.
Yes, you can say that I am comparing a 23 yo Zimmerman to a 27 yo Utley. But again, all I can say is blissful ignorance. Zimmerman's number were down, and you are blissfully ignoring the (maybe ONE) article that The Post and Moony Times had about Zimmerman's "persistent shoulder problems all season' that caused his numbers to be lower in 2007 than they were in 2006. Why the shoulder issue? Because a young body can't suddenly go from 70-90 games a year to 162 without physical body damage being the result.
Believe me, Charlie. I love you, man! You have a hard job out there, being a blogger expected to be objective when all you get is, as I said "powder puff and feel good" from the newspapers.
I am not being objectionable, just critical. There's a difference.
Posted by: Squonk64 | April 01, 2008 at 06:13 PM
Posted by: Squonk64 | April 01, 2008 at 06:24 PM
Posted by: Maru | April 04, 2008 at 11:19 PM
I think if you look at Zimmerman's stats, 2005-2007 (this year is too small a sample to make any conclusions), it shows obvious signs of being rushed. Zimmerman tore up 2005, yes. But he batted 0.397 (not "over 0.400," I point out,), 0.287, and then 0.267 in those years. His power numbers are also trending down, 162, 114, and then 107 OPS+.
The point I was making was not that Zimmerman lacked the talent to play in the big leagues in 2005. My point is that a young body, used to playing 70-90 games a year, at most 3-4 times a week, cannot be expected to suddenly play 162 games 6-7 a week without physical damage being the result. And Zimmerman's numbers show the downward trend you see when a player gets rushed. It takes a minimum of two, some would argue three, seasons in the minors to get a body adjusted to the physical demands of playing every day from mid February through, hopefully, the end of October.
In an ideal world, Zimmerman would have been a mid season 2007 or 2008 call-up after winning bookcase full of minor league MVP awards. He would have hit 0.400 in his half season, like he nearly did in 2005, and later be a serious MVP candidate for what is, realistically, a pretty bad team. Now, that is not going to happen. The Nats did themselves and Zimmerman a great injustice by rushing him. Instead, Zimmerman will be a good, possibly great, but not the historic player he should have been.
That was also my last point when I used Savery as an example. Savery has the potential to be a great, historic player. On the other hand, I would not use the names of Maybin, Markakis, and Milledge in the same sentence with words like "Hall of Fame" "MVP" or "Cy Young Award" potential. I would, on the other hand, use those words in the same sentence as a 2005 Zimmerman and a 2007 Savery.
It will take considerable work for me to pull up the articles the Washington newspapers did write about Zimmerman's nagging injury issues the past two years, but I'll work on it and post it here. Again, it's not like they have an objective, critical press corps down here in DC. Most of what was written was secondary to a main article explaining the wonders of a team that won't lose 120 games, after all.
Posted by: Squonk64 | April 05, 2008 at 09:32 AM
Cameron Maybin is a 21 yo kid, really, who the Tigers drafted out of high school in 2005 and called him up in August 2007, after less than two weeks of AA ball. I agree with you here, but the Marlins put him in AA this year, which is where he should have been all along. I doubt that the 20-some games he did play with Detroit will have any long term affect on his development, though.
I don't know if I agree with you on Nick Markakis, though. Markakis was drafted out of Junior College in 2003 and spent three seasons in the minors before playing full time in the majors. His AA time was limited, but the trend lately is skip AAA and put kids like this right in the majors, especially if they've played enough in the minors and that player is the best available player at that position. (Many people view AAA is nothing more than a parking lot for players with some major league experience.) More importantly, though, Markakis's stats are trending up, 0.291 to 0.300 BA, and 106 to 121 OPS+. An arguement can be made that a Junior College guy needs at least one more year in the minors before being called up, but based on a limited two season data set, it doesn't seem to have hurt him. We'll have a better idea after this season.
Lastings Milledge had issues before he was even drafted. Didn't he get exelled from one private high school for...I forget the exact indiscretion. But your point is well taken. Four years in the minors is way too short a timeframe for head case you drafted out of high school.
Posted by: Squonk64 | April 05, 2008 at 12:11 PM
Posted by: Squonk64 | April 05, 2008 at 01:50 PM