Gone are the days when athletes were routinely given nicknames. Monikers such as "Splendid Splinter", "Charlie Hustle", and "Wilt the Stilt" are a thing of the past. But if the practice ever becomes a fad again, I think the Phillies' outfielder Shane Victorino should be referred to as Pu kuni ahi, Hawaiian for "cannon".
The Hardball Times recently published statistical ratings for the throwing abilities of outfielders in 2007 and of the right fielders with at least 80 opportunities to throw out base runners, Shane Victorino ranked third, behind only Jeff Francoeur and Mike Cuddyer. The Flyin' Hawaiian -- wait! nicknames live again! -- threw out base runners at a rate 70% higher than what would be expected. The study also measured the rate at which base runners held rather than advanced and when Victorino fielded a ball, runners were 28% more likely to stay put than would be expected. This hold rate was the highest in baseball.
Here's how the Phillies' Opening Day outfield faired:
Kills+ Holds+ Runs Pat Burrell 125 96 -0.5 Aaron Rowand 79 115 3.7 Shane Victorino 170 128 8.2
[Explanation of table: The kill and hold rates are normalized to 100, so anything over 100 is above average, anything below 100 is below average. The runs column reports the number of runs over average the player saved with his arm over the course of the season]
Left fielder Pat Burrell appears to have an arm right about average for his position. He has a higher kill rate than hold rate which suggests that runners are underestimating his arm -- something we've all suspected over the past few years.
Aaron Rowand is an interesting case. His kill rate is well below average yet his hold rate is slightly above average. What this suggests is that Rowand's has a reputation for throwing that is much better than his actual ability. This coincides with the fact that while many people consider him a good center fielder, there are few among us who think he was Gold Glove-worthy.
It will be interesting to see if over time scouts adjust to this fact and runners decide to take a chance against Rowand a little more often. But that is another team's concern or benefit, not the Phillies. What the Phillies are more interested in is the arm of Geoff Jenkins, who will platoon with Jayson Werth in right field while PKA moves to center field. [Unfortunately, Werth did not reach 80 opportunities and was therefore not included in the study]. Jenkins -- as a left fielder mind you -- ranked right around average with ratings of 93/97/-0.5, which begs the question, will his arm be good enough for right field?
Back to PKA, what's interesting about him is that despite having the highest hold rate in baseball, his kill rate was as high as it was, suggesting that even though runners highly respect his arm, they still aren't aware of how much of a cannon it really is.
Tomorrow, we'll examine how Victorino's tarp wrestling rates at 237 and his shaving-cream-pie-in-the face rate is 569.
