What's $3 Million Among Friends?
On Friday, the Phillies and Ryan Howard's representatives exchanged salary-arbitration figures. The Phillies, who, according to assistant general manager Ruben Amaro, "like to pay players what they are worth," would like to pay Howard $7 million dollar is 2008, equivalent to the $7 million Albert Pujols was offered in arbitration for the 2004 season, which is still the largest amount offered by any team to any first-time arbitration-eligible player. On the other hand, Howard and his people think $10 million sounds much better, an amount that would be the highest amount ever paid through arbitration.
The best thing that can happen for both sides is if they reach a deal before the arbitration hearing next month. Last year, contract negotiations between Howard and the Phillies had a hint of contention, so the long-term relationship won't be helped any if the Phillies have to go into a conference room and, in front of Howard, lay out all the reasons why he's not worth what he wants.
As an aside... When considering arbitration cases, service-time is everything, so we can't compare Howard to players who have reached free agency, and as a matter of fact, even though we are comparing Pujols and Cabrera to Howard, we can't even compare their entire careers. Only their pre-arbitration years.
If you've ever purchased or sold a house, one of the first things you do is look at "the comps" -- the comparables -- in the neighborhood. What did similar houses in the immediate surrounding area in the not too distant past sell for? You use that information to determine the proper asking price.
Just as you wouldn't compare a 6-bedroom mansion in Villanova to a 6-room rowhouse in Queen Village, you can't compare Ryan Howard the "super two" to Torii Hunter the free agent.
You have to hand it to Amaro, he's saying all the right things, trying to diffuse the situation as much as possible, because the knee-jerk reaction is to label the Phillies cheap. But what gives his statements some credibility is that $7 million is probably a pretty fair figure.
Besides Pujols, another logical comparison to Howard is Miguel Cabrera, who was eligible for arbitration for the first time a year ago and was awarded $7.4 million.
The career statistics of Howard, Cabrera and Pujols prior to their first year of arbitration:
PA BA OBP SLG HR RBI Pujols 2036 .334 .412 .613 114 381
Howard 1742 .291 .397 .610 129 353
Cabrera 2392 .311 .384 .535 104 404
When you compare Howard to Pujols and consider other factors such as Pujols' far superior defense on the one hand and several years of inflation since 2004 on the other, you don't reach the conclusion that the Phillies are low-balling Howard. It seems about right. As for the comparison to Cabrera, the effect of inflation is negligible because just one season has passed, but statistically, it does appear as if $7 million might be a little low, though it is difficult to determine because of the extreme differences in the way Citizens Bank Park plays versus Dolphin Stadium.
Even though it probably won't be used in the arbitration hearing, if it comes to that, OPS+ is a statistic we can use to help us level out the playing field so to speak, since park factors are taken into consideration. Below are the best pre-arbitration full seasons Howard, Cabrera, and Pujols had by OPS+:
Player OPS+ Year Pujols 187 2003 Howard 167 2006 Cabrera 159 2006 Pujols 157 2001 Pujols 151 2002 Cabrera 151 2005 Howard 144 2007 Cabrera 130 2004
Of the eight seasons, Howard's 2006 was the second best, second only to Pujols' absurd 2003. But Howard's other full season, 2007 ranks well behind all of Pujols' and two of Cabrera's three.
Again, you have to conclude that if the Phillies are low-balling Howard, it can't be by very much. As a matter of fact, you have to give them some credit for doing their homework. If the arbiters get the chance to do theirs, Howard might just have to settle for the measly $7 million.
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Am I the only one that sees it this way? Some differing viewpoints...
Shallow Center... Baseball Musings... Philly.com poll... phillyBurbs.com.
