Evaluating the NL East

The general consensus is that the Phillies, who won the NL East by just one game in 2007, have done little this offseason to maintain or improve upon that margin.

The trade for Brad Lidge, a closer, actually improved the starting pitching rotation.  It enables the Phillies to reap the benefits of Brett Myers pitching around 200 innings at around a 3.80 ERA rather than just 80 innings at a around 3.20 ERA.

On the other hand, Wednesday brought news that the Phillies have officially lost centerfielder Aaron Rowand, probably the most consistent right-handed bat in the lineup in 2007 and an above average fielder.  The San Francisco Giants' general manager met his absurd asking price [which, when you think about it, if someone is willing to pay it, it reduces a certain amount of the absurdity] after a career year.  Late-season pick-up Kyle Lohse, whose mere averageness helped solidify the Phils' rotation, will soon follow.

Most would say these three developments offset for a net zero.  Myers as a starter will outperform Lohse and don't be surprised if a Pat Burrell-Shane Victorino-Jayson Werth outfield does just as well as a Burrell-Rowand-Victorino outfield when offense and defense are both considered.

Now, there's no doubt you'd like to improve your team over the offseason, rather than just tread water, but at the same time [one of manager Charlie Manuel's favorite phrases], what has the rest of the NL East done to catch up?

The Florida Marlins have traded away two of their three above average players to the American League, leaving Hanley Ramirez and the supporting cast of Bull Durham to play in front of tens of fans in Dolphin Stadium a couple nights a week.  They were little concern in 2007 and they'll be even less in 2008.

The Metropolitans have also devolved, losing 13-game winner Tom Glavine to the Atlanta Braves [more on that later].  Pedro Martinez will likely be called upon to take up that slack, but if you are Mets manager Willie Randolph, how many starts do you really think he'll make for you in 2008? Ten? Fifteen? Twenty?  Any more than that is tantamount to falling for all of those Frank TV commercials during the playoffs -- in other words, delusional optimism.

To their credit, the Mets have not sat idly by, they have traded for Ryan Church, probably an average to slightly above average part, and Brian Schneider, a decent hitting catcher, which is a backhanded compliment if their ever was one, but in doing so, they used Lastings Milledge, one of their better trading chips.   Schneider will replace Paul Lo Duca behind the dish, and depending upon who you talk to, this will either have a big negative or big positive effect on the team.

Of course, none of this takes into account the damaged psyches of the players that experienced September's collapse.  Jose Reyes' game did the equivalent of curling up into the fetal position that final week of the season.

In Atlanta, the Braves have brought Glavine back for more season, but at his increasing age, how much more can be expected of him?  In what has become an annual ritual, the Braves are also hoping to get back Mike Hampton, who makes Pedro Martinez look like Cal Ripken Jr., and have yet to figure out a way to make up for the loss of Andruw Jones, a very good centerfielder and someone who, even in an off year hit 26 home runs and drove in 94 runs.

Finally, the Washington Nationals will at the very least benefit from the good vibrations that come from a new stadium, but once the novelty wears off, is the team that's left be much better than last year's version?  Gone are Church and Schneider, with the talented but unproven Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes in their place.  Milledge and Dukes can probably play, but where does baseball rank in their priorities?  Meanwhile, the team's pitching staff is in the same state of disarray that it was last year.

Again, it's unfortunate that the Phillies couldn't improve their team very much so far in the offseason, but if the Phils are treading water, that's certainly better than being dragged under a little bit the way the rest of the division is going.

Assuming the Mets don't find a way to land Johan Santana in a trade, and if the Phillies use the Costanza Theory of Just Doing the Opposite rather than trying to get off to a good start in April, there's good reason to be optimistic about '08 if you are a Phillies fan.