Here's a little known fact: strikeouts rarely score runs. Seriously. And even more rare is the strikeout that leaves the park -- it just never happens. Go ahead, look it up.
Given those trends, it stands to reason that the best way to prevent runs is to strikeout a lot of batters. If you allow hitters to make contact and put the ball in play, then you are increasing the chances of something negative happening. The ball could easily go between defenders, falling in for a hit, or it could even go right at a defender and he could mishandle the play. Worst of all, the defenders may never even get a chance to make a play because it goes right into the stands becoming a souvenir or an eBay curio.
Take a look at the strikeout leaders per nine innings pitched. With few exceptions, almost all are exceptional pitchers. The Jake Peaveys, the Johan Santanas, the Scott Kazmirs, and the Cole Hamels of the world. Then take a look at the bottom of that list, fewest K/9 among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched. Certainly there are exceptions on this list as well, but for the most part, that list is comprised of pitchers that are probably not in danger of coming close to their Cy Young Award bonus clauses.
You may have noticed one name on that list concerns us as Phillies fans in particular, Kyle Kendrick.
Lets make one thing clear right here: Without Kyle Kendrick, the Phillies don't make the playoffs in 2007. Kendrick was promoted to the Bigs after making only 12 starts above A-ball, all with AA Reading. On June 13th, the Phillies promoted Kendrick with the intention of using him for just a start or two, a warm body called in as Jon Lieber and Freddy Garcia floundered with injury and ineffectiveness. In the end, Kendrick made one start after another, pitching 121 innings with the Phils and winning ten games. Again, without Kendrick and his 3.87 ERA, the Phightins don't make the playoffs.
Kendrick started 20 games for the Phillies and it got to the point where you had as much confidence in him to keep a game close. He averaged 6 innings per start, his quality start percentage of 65% led a team that averaged 49%, and the Phils were 13-7 when Kendrick took the ball. When you settled in to watch one of his games, you felt pretty good about the Phillies' chances that evening.
But given Kendrick's inability to strikeout batters, should we have felt so confident? More importantly, can the Phillies and their fans expect similar results from Kendrick in 2008?
If there was any luck involved in Kendrick's body of work, examining play-by-play data may reveal it. As a rule of thumb, 3 out of every 4 line drives fall in for hits, and therefore, it stands to reason that pitchers who allow a large number of line drives either have a large ERA or are about to have one. Kendrick had a line drive rate of 21.1% -- the National League average was 19% -- so clearly, Kendrick had a little bit of help from Lady Luck.
But at the same time, Kendrick used his sinkerball to rack up a 47.1% groundball rate (NL average was 43%). With a middle infield comprised of Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, one of the most efficient double play combinations around according to the annual Bill James Handbooks, that's not a bad strategy. As a matter of fact, Kendrick induced 18 double plays, a fairly high total for only 121 innings pitched.
So, back to the questions. Was Kendrick (and the Phillies) lucky? Can we expect more success from Kendrick in '08? To the former, it's safe to say that yes, he was, but to a certain extent, he made his own luck. To the latter, Kendrick seems to know who he is (a finesse-type sinkerball pitcher) and doesn't try to be a type of pitcher that he's not (a power strikeout pitcher). If he maintains that attitude -- and he did his entire rookie year -- he should be just fine.
Feel free to pencil in Kyle Kendrick with Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer in the rotation and concern yourself with a way to white-out Adam Eaton.
