The Official BS&S.com Inbox has been brimming with missives asking about my thoughts on Aaron Rowand. The questions are typically along the lines of "Will he be dealt?" and/or "Will the Phillies re-sign him at the end of the season as a free-agent?"
I spend a lot of time -- entirely too much actually -- reading between the lines of statements made by Phillies general manager Pat Gillick and his assistants, Ruben Amaro, Jr. and Mike Arbuckle and here is what I think their plan is between now and next April, which I would actually endorse [of course, I also thought the Freddy Garcia deal was a good one, and the Jon Lieber one too, which begs the question: why are any of you bothering to get my opinion?]...
...Keep Aaron Rowand for now and ride his wave until the season is over. Then, in the off-season, offer him arbitration, which he will likely turn down, and then reap the draft picks in June awarded to the Phillies due to his departure.
Look, I love Aaron Rowand, but there is no way he will be worth the money some team is going to throw at him this winter based upon what he has done this summer. Take a look at Rowand's OPS+ by season:
Anything look suspicious there? His performance declined for two straight seasons until he hit a contract year. Again, I love Rowand, I love what he brings to the team in terms of attitude and work ethic, but I think this is a classic example of a player who is having a career year as he becomes a free agent.
Next, you might ask, "then why not trade him now?" Because whatever you get for him now will not equal the value he provides as an above average center fielder and the lone dependable right handed bat in the Phillies lineup.
If anyone gets traded in the coming days, it will be Michael Bourn for a back-end starter. In the off-season, with Rowand gone, Shane Victorino will move to center field and the Phillies will sign a right fielder with some pop.
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More on Rowand:
