If the current trend of playing time holds, then by August, any Pat Burrell sighting will indicate two additional weeks of winter. Burrell, who had one of the best college hitting careers of all-time, which garnered him the moniker "Pat the Bat" and enticed the Phillies to choose him as the very first pick in the 1998 amateur draft, has become a $13 million bench player.
Burrell's lack of playing time isn't due to injury like many other Phillies, no, it's due to good ole fashioned poor performance. He's hitting just .204, his .745 OPS (97 OPS+) at a tolerable level only because he can draw a walk, certainly not because of his anemic .374 slugging percentage.
Burrell's troubles this season are well-documented here and in other places. What is more interesting to analyze is, what went wrong? Given such a glowing resume coming out of college, and given such a promising start to his career (149 OPS+ in 2002), where did the Phillies lose him?
Baseball is a game of adjustments, and the likely answer to these questions is that Pat has failed to adjust to the adjustments pitchers have made towards him. Consider the following two quotes, which speak volumes about how opposing teams and pitchers think about Barrel:
"He takes 40 good swings a year." ~ Anonymous major league scout
"He's got a one-path swing..." ~ Billy Wagner, Mets closer/Barrel's nemesis
In other words, pitchers, catchers, pitching coaches and managers have decided that Burrell shouldn't be given anything good to hit (nothing in said path) and let him either take a walk if he avoids the slop coming his way, or, get himself out if he is too tempted.
Scouting data supports this theory as Burrell's batting average on balls right down the heart of the plate, belt-high is .481, just above the knees in the middle of the plate is .349, and on the outside half, belt high is .344. All other portions of the strike zone range from .162 to .269.
Further evidence is Burrell's walk rate, a measure typically indicative of hitting prowess. From the time Burrell first saw major league action in 2000 to the present, his walk rate has steadily increased, particularly in the last year or two, to the point that he ranks as one of the best in baseball. As a matter of fact, his 20.8 % walk rate in 2007 is better than that of David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis ("The Greek God of Walks"), Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield and Justin Morneau. Only Barry Bonds' 29.4% ranks higher. However, even though Pat has such a high tendency to take a walk, his .745 OPS is easily the lowest among the top 15 walkers in baseball, so it's not as if he is using this batting eye to his advantage.
Burrell's walk rate might not be so much a function of his exceptional batting eye, but more a function of the location of the pitches he sees. Despite a high walk rate, Burrell will also swing at 45% of the pitches he sees high above the strike zone and over 27% below the strike zone.
The Phillies score runs in bunches without contributions from Burrell, and to make any significant headway in the National League, they are going to have to improve their pitching. What's at stake for Burrell is actually his career because if he wants to become more than a part-time player, then he is going to have to alter his approach at the plate.
Believe it or not, Burrelll has to become more patient. He has to swing at even fewer pitches outside the strike zone and if that means an absurd OBP of .500, fine. Once that happens, teams will decide that they have to pitch to him, and that is when Burrell will start regularly seeing pitches that he can drive for power.
Until he makes that adjustment, the Phillies are probably better off batting him at the top of the order and immediately pinch-running with Michael Bourn, even if it is the first inning. His current approach isn't doing anyone any good, especially himself.
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References and resources: Fangraphs.com, ESPN.com, Yahoo News (image)
