This time every year, literally thousands of people make predictions about the baseball season. Some make these predictions as simple mental notes to themselves while sitting in traffic, some make them to the person on the barstool next to them, and others still make their predictions known to thousands of other people in print.
But most of these people have very little riding on the predictions. Sure, bragging rights are cool, but really, does anyone remember who Jayson Stark thought would win the World Series last year? Didn't think so.
However, there's one place where there is actually a lot riding on the predictions and that is Las Vegas [baby]. In Vegas, making a bad prediction can cost casinos millions and millions of dollars. Because of this, you can assume they do their homework. They've got more riding on it than anyone else.
Bodog.com, and online gambling site, places the over/under on the Phillies total wins in 2007 at 88.5 and 11/10 odds to win the NL East (the Mets over/under is 89.5 and their odds are 10/11). Seems reasonable.
Last season, the Phillies won 86 games. They did so by giving 36 starts to Ryan Madson, Scott Mathieson, Gavin Floyd, Adam Bernero, and one to the bullpen. They also started David Bell and Abraham Nunez at third base.
In 2007, barring injury, Freddy Garcia will get most of those 36 starts and Jamie Moyer and Cole Hamels will get 30 starts as well. Wes Helms will probably hit .280 or so and hit 18 or so homeruns. Sure, Bobby Abreu is gone, as is a streaky David Dellucci, but it says here that the Phillies, after all of those offseason moves, will certainly be more than two games better in 2007 than in 2006.
The Phillies will win 90 games and win the National League East.
[Everytime I think I'm out, they pull me back in...]
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What are your predictions?
