Newspapers are reporting that Phillies' GM Pat Gillick "dropped by" the Toronto Blue Jays camp in Dunedin, just up the road from Clearwater, yesterday [link 1; link 2]. Both the Blue Jays and the Phillies are saying that it was just a friendly get-together as Gillick had some free time on his hands due to the Phils late exhibition game start against Florida State.
Naturally, the visit caused the trade rumor mill to begin turning again. With the Phillies having an excess of starting pitchers, interest in Aaron Rowand from other teams but little outfield depth, and an as yet to be filled gaping hole in the bullpen, the speculation was that Gillick's real intention for, you know, just stopping by, whatever, was to evaluate the Blue Jays right fielder, Alex Rios.
The imagined scenario would be that if the Phillies traded Rowand for bullpen help, Jon Lieber would then be traded to the Jays for Rios. Shane Victorino would likely shift to center field, with Rios taking over in right field. Below is a comparison of the three players (numbers over 100 are better than average) 2006 OPS+ for measuring offense and out ratio for measuring defense:
2006:
OPS+ CF PMR RF PMR
A Rowand 87 101.51 DNP
A Rios 118 93.17 103.35
S Victorino 92 113.37* 100.37
* best in baseball
On paper, it seems like a good move for the Phillies. They would get improved play in centerfield, and while there would likely be a slight drop off in defense in right field, there would be a large improvement in offense. As a matter of fact, Rios' 118 OPS+ is essentially the same as Bobby Abreu's 120 OPS+ with the Phillies in 2006.
But several questions would need to be answered first (besides the obvious "is this deal even being discussed") and they are, one, can we expect the same performance from Rios in 2007 that the Jays experienced in 2006 (a breakthrough year for the 25-year old or a career year?), and two, what effect would removing Aaron Rowand's personality from the Phillies clubhouse have on the team?
The first question is hard to answer and the second is nearly impossible with opinions ranging from catastrophic to negligible and everything in between. As for Rios, most projection systems think he will have a drop off from 2006, though the amount varies greatly and on top of that, even last year, Rios had a less-than-stellar degree of plate discipline, so it is easy to see the logic behind the projections.
It's a tough scenario to work through, and that is why Pat Gillick is paid the big bucks. But here's a third question to answer that is also nearly impossible: given the unreliable nature of relief pitching in general, is it really a good idea to trade a known commodity like Rowand?
In Gillick we trust.
[Photo credit: Flickr.com user "peggy"]
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The probabilistic model of range (PMR) out ratios are courtesy of David Pinto's Baseball Musings. If you can, consider making a donation to his pledge drive. His site and its resources make baseball on the web a much better place.
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Also floating around in the media today is a report that the Phillies are hypothetically considering using Brett Myers as a closer if the need arises. My prediction: there will not be any serious consideration for that until the year 2015 or until he comes back from a serious injury, which ever comes first.
