Ever since Ryan Howard began his 2006 late-season surge in an attempt to carry the Phillies to the playoffs upon his naturally large shoulders (OPS of 1.004, 1.214, 1.324 in July, August, and September), the discussion of how to properly protect the Howitzer has gripped those that follow the team.
Much of the attention has focused on Pat Burrell and in the end, the debate is at best (or worst) a tie as both naysayers and yeasayers have strong cases. But to place the responsibility squarely with Burrell is a bit unfair, and as a matter of fact, looking to any player that hits behind Howard is a bit unfair too.
Don't forget, there will most likely be three players batting ahead of Howard in the lineup, and how they perform could influence the big fella as well. As a matter of fact, there is a stark contrast in terms of how often pitchers walk Howard depending upon presence of baserunners on first in front of Howard.
When Howard is at bat with no runners on base whatsoever, it seems as if pitchers are more willing to challenge him. On the other hand, with baserunners on second and/or third and first base open, Howard's walk rate increases dramatically from 9% with no one on to 31%. It's almost as if solo homeruns don't bother pitchers, but they'll be damned if they give up more than that (not to say that they were successful -- 29 of Howard's 58 homeruns in 2006 came with at least one extra RBI).
The very first changes the Phillies made in the offseason weren't player-related, instead, they were on the coaching staff. One of the new coaches hired was Davy Lopes, charged with manning the first base side and mentoring Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino in the art of base stealing.
That's all well and good, but if Rollins and Victorino -- the most likely top-of the order combo -- should steal another 20 to 30 bases between them, it might mean another five to fifteen walks for Ryan Howard.
Walks aren't a bad thing, but in an ideal world, Howard is free to swing the bat at pitches he can drive. So Charlie Manuel will have a decision to make when runners are on in front of Howard. Have the runner steal second in the hopes of scoring in a single, or, have them simply distract the pitcher in hopes of one of Howard's patented blasts and a big inning?
It's a nice problem to have, but still, I'm glad it's Manuel and not me that has to decide.
