While November and December brought trade rumors fast and furious from all corners of electronic and print media, January has been a slow month, particularly in regards to the Phillies.
As the Most Likely Phillie To Be Traded, rumors for Jon Lieber's final destination are few and far between. This is surprising on several levels. While Lieber is no staff ace, he is probably capable of giving a team 25 starts at league average ERA, with little contractual risk -- it's the last year of his contract and he is due "only" $7.5 million, a bargain in today's starting pitching market. Plus, as we all know, starting pitching is in high-demand around baseball.
From the relatively paltry interest shown in Lieber, we can speculate on several possibilities: (1) the Phillies are asking too much in return for Lieber, (2) league scouts and general managers were not at all impressed by Lieber's 2006 and don't feel he can contribute much in 2007, (3) everyone involved, from general manager Pat Gillick to other general managers around baseball, wants to get to spring training and take inventory before making a deal.
Of those, the last is most likely. We are just a few weeks now from pitchers and catchers reporting, and so the failures of 2006 are not as fresh in everyone's mind and patience and prudence are taking over. Indeed, that appears to be exactly the logic San Diego Padres general manager Kevin Towers is using. The Tribune-Union, a San Diego newspaper ran a story yesterday with quotes from Towers about the rumored Aaron Rowand/Scott Linebrink trade: “It might be something we discuss again later this spring.But right now I want to see what we have in spring training. I want to see how (outfielder) Terrmel Sledge plays and how our bullpen shapes up.”
This example of discretion being the better part of valor would be wise for the Phillies as well. Trading Rowand would leave the Phillies outfield very, very thin. Pat Burrell (balky ankle) in left, Shane Victorino in center (technically an unproven commodity), and Jayson Werth (surgically rehabilitated wrist) in right. Perhaps it's the Phillies who should be waiting to count their chickens.
Unless of course, Gillick has a trade in place for Lieber for an outfielder...
...In Gillick we trust.
