Ask a random Phillies fan what the team's biggest concern is heading into the 2007 season and if you don't get a knee-jerk, "Pat Burrell batting behind Ryan Howard" response fermented by talk-radio hyperbole, the most likely (and correct) response is, "the back-end of the bullpen." But probably the second biggest concern is offensive production from the outfield (which, technically doesn't make the Pat Burrell response 100% incorrect).
Aaron Rowand's 2004 season is looking more and more like an aberration all the time and while the jury is still out on what type of hitter Shane Victorino will develop into, nearly everyone would agree that at this point, he is at the very least a bit raw at the plate. Finally, Burrell is, as has been discussed ad nauseum, the inconsistent force (which complements his immovable object routine in the field).
The hope is that the offense provided by one of the better infields in baseball will mask the deficits in the outfield. But we can do more than hope -- we can speculate, we can project. Whether that will help or not...
Below is a table of the Phillies' expected starting everyday eight's projected OPS (CHONE, by Sean "Chone" Smith) in comparison to the average starter's OPS in 2006 for each position (as compiled by Jeff Sackmann at The Hardball Times):
2007 2006
Proj. Lg.Avg. Diff
Rollins .768 .758 +.010
Victorino .775 .828 -.053
Utley .844 .767 +.077
Howard .980 .882 +.098
Burrell .846 .845 +.001
Helms .818 .838 -.020
Rowand .763 .788 -.025
Ruiz .753 .777 -.024
Average difference: +.008
The first thing that your eye is drawn to is just how much the offense is going to depend on Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. The second thing you notice is how much below the league average Victorino is in right field. There's no doubt he'll get to more balls hit to right field than the average right fielder, but we shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking it is going to come close to making up for the deficit in offense.
Probably the third thing you noticed was that Pat Burrell is projected to basically put up a league average OPS for a left fielder. I'm not sure I buy that, so I looked at several other projection systems and most place Burrell's OPS between .860 and .870, which gets above league average, but is still way down from the .891 OPS he has put up over the last two years. One has to believe that there is some sort of wrinkle in the systems that marks Burrell lower than they should and that his past performance is more indicative of his future performance.
But the fact remains Victorino is essentially a center fielder miscast as a corner outfielder. So many stars have to line up, but if the Phils can trade Rowand for a relief pitcher, and Jon Lieber for a Ryan Church-type to platoon with a healthy Jayson Werth (fingers crossed) in right field after shifting Victorino to center, the Phillies will have a much better looking outfield and maybe a slightly better team.
Those are a lot of stars and ifs however.
