Players don't often make significant adjustments to their game at the age of 29, but it looks like Wes Helms is the exception.
When members of the Phillies brass talk about Wes Helms, in particular Charlie Manuel, they talk about how Helms has changed his approach at the plate. Gone is the long, all-or-nothing swing of his youth, replaced by a shorter stroke and a willingness to sometimes settle for something less than a five-run homer.
Recently, while caravaning across Pennsylvania with other members of the Phillies organization, Manuel said,
"Helms is a guy in the last two years, he’s changed his approach to hitting...He’s a much better hitter; he hits for a high average now instead of going up there and swinging real hard trying to hit the ball out of the ballpark. He’s cut down on his swing; with two strikes he’ll hit the ball the other way. (When he) works on hitting for a high average, and when he does that, his power will show up."
It's probably that approach, coupled with the two best statistical seasons of his career in 2005-2006, that prompted the Phillies to offer Helms, 31, the two-year, $5.45 million contract he signed. Helms himself said at the time, "I've made adjustments. I've always been a guy that expected too much of myself and tried to do too much. I think I got smarter as my career went on."
Play-by-play data supports the idea that Helms has changed his approach. Below is a breakdown of Helms' outfield hits by location:
Think it's a coincidence that in the seasons where Helms favors hits to center and right fields are also the seasons his OPS+ tends to be higher? And luck had nothing to do with it either, in 2006, Helms' line drive rate was 26.3%, well above the league average.
By the way, Cholly knows what he is talking about when it comes to Helms' approach with two strikes -- over the past two years, of the 129 hits Helms has accumulated, 38 were with two strikes.
As long as Helms is at least passable defensively at third base, it's likely that the Phillies have improved the team significantly by signing him.
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Update/Addendum: An objective reader in the comments section has questioned whether or not there really is a pattern to Wes Helms' batted ball data and suggested that perhaps viewing all balls in play would should something more definitive. So, at the risk of violating terms of service agreements, the express written consent of Major League Baseball, FCC regulations, and general moral fiber, below is a graphic from ESPN.com's scouting report on Helms showing all balls in play in 2006 on the right, and MLB.com's balls in play data on the left [caveat: MLB.com only displays data on a ballpark by ballpark basis, so this is for Helms at Pro Player Stadium in 2006 only]:
It appears as if Helms uses the entire outfield, but when it comes to the infield, it looks as if he hits a lot of ground-outs to third and short. My guess is that he gets caught rolling the bat over on off-speed/breaking stuff.
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2007 Projections for Wes Helms
BA OBP SLG Bill James 280 345 458 CHONE 279 348 469 Marcel 293 358 473 ZiPS 286 355 450
[projections courtesy of Fangraphs.com, play-by-play data from B-R PI]
