Dipping into the mailbag, a request from regular reader and commenter "Gov'Nah":
I just got done reading your Helms article, (good job); and I noticed you had a little chart for hit location. Can you do one of those for Chase Utley and tell me what you decifer ? Don’t get me wrong, I love Utley. But watching him play all of last year, I couldn’t help but notice that he almost NEVER hits the ball to the left of second base. Hey, it worked. He had a high average and knocked in 100 runs. Something tells me that if he continues to hit like this, it may start to backfire. (that’s if my instincts are correct).
Dividing the field into thirds, lets take a look:
Chase Utley - 2006 - Balls in play Left Center Right All BIP 22% 37% 41% HR 6% 31% 63%
Hits 18% 42% 41%
Outs 25% 34% 41%
There's no doubt, the 85 Million Dollar Man does like to pull the ball. But, it looks like he also likes to hit it up the middle as well and as a matter of fact, balls hit to the right tend to be outs at a higher rate than hits.
Theoretically, this would be a sign pitchers should pitch outside to Utley more often, thereby preventing him from turning on a ball the way he can on an inside pitch. But if you look at batting average by pitch location, Utley fairs pretty well on pitches located to the outer half of the plate (his homerun on August 21st, 2006 off of Rich Hill to straight centerfield is an example). Only if the pitch is low and away does Utley struggle (.188 batting average).
What's more troubling to me than anything about Utley's record is his strikeout rate, 20% the last two years in a row, worse than the league average. One would think that with Utley's short quick stroke, he would be able to keep strikeouts to a minimum as he can wait on a pitch a split second longer to recognize it.
But all things considered? I say we hang on to him for a while.
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