The Baseball Analysts recently took a look around baseball through the viewfinder of the run element ratio. For the uninitiated, run element ratio was discussed by Bill James in his 1988 abstract as a way of judging which players are better suited to leadoff innings and which players are better left for the end of innings. The larger the ratio, particularly those over 1.0, the more it behooves a team to have that player bat sooner in an inning and the smaller the ratio, the better it is to have him come to the plate later in the inning.
The formula for the run element ratio is (SB+BB)/(TB-H), so as you might expect, players such as Joey Gathright (3.05), Scott Podsednik (1.96), and Chone Figgins (1.77) are of the table-setting variety, while players such as Johnny Estrada (.220) and Aramis Ramirez (.325) are better off coming later.
Naturally, I wondered how the 2006 Phillies would stack up. As it turns out, there is no Phillie who was an ideal table setter, something I think we have all suspected for a long time. By default, Jimmy Rollins is still probably the Phillies best option to bat lead off as that slot is the only one guaranteed to lead off at lest one inning (Abraham Nunez has the highest ratio, but I think we can all agree that an on-base average of .303 is way too low for the no. 1 slot).
Interestingly, Pat Burrell has a fairly high ratio, due in large part to his high walk total. Perhaps the best position for him to bat is fourth or fifth. That way, if no one or only one batter reaches base in the first inning, Burrell would be likely to lead off the second inning. Wes Helms would then slide into the sixth slot nicely, with Shane Victorino seventh and Carlos Ruiz eighth
By the way, for those of you who clamored for Bobby Abreu to bat leadoff during his time here in Philly, his ratio in 2006 was 1.71. I maintain that Abreu had too much power to bat leadoff on a regular basis, but perhaps second or fifth would have been appropriate slots for him, rather than third.
Like any statistic, run element ratio is just one factor to consider when constructing teams and lineups. Speed, power, health, batter/pitcher matchups and handedness are obviously just a few other factors to consider.
