While Joseph Addai is still scoring touchdowns on this Monday morning, we'll talk Phillies...
There is a school of thought that says because in 2006, Ryan Howard hit 58 home runs while driving in 149 runs, he had an adequate amount of protection in the Phillies lineup. Supporting that school of thought in Sunday's Courier-Post, Kevin Roberts had a very good column analyzing the Phillies lineup and suggesting general manager Pat Gillick would be better off searching for more pitching rather than more hitting this offseason.
As much as I highly recommend reading the article, and as much as I enjoy regularly reading his columns [as well as those of his "battery-mate", Michael Radano], I think Roberts is missing several significant points in his analysis.
First, Roberts suggests that the concept of protection is a myth. He points to numerous studies by numerous sabermatricians that have all failed to prove that there is such a thing as protection in a lineup. No doubt, this lack of evidence certainly is cause for suspicion, however, just because statistics can not prove something exists doesn't mean it isn't there. It is very possible that what is actually absent is our ability to objectively prove it does exist. As a matter of fact, Bill James, one of the founding fathers of sabermetrics, touched on this very subject in an essay, "Underestimating the Fog".
Second, the fact that Howard drew over 108 walks is brought up to illustrate that Howard is incredibly capable of adjusting to the pitches thrown to him and is perfectly able of showing restraint when pitchers are not delivering strikes and therefore, added protection is not necessary.
Roberts is right in that Howard can adjust incredibly well. His ability to hit left handed pitching this year after being quite poor against lefties last year is evidence of that fact. However, while Howard was taking 108 walks in 2006 (37 of which were intentional by the way, which are 37 times in which Howard did not have to worry about discerning strikes from balls or reminding himself to be patient) he was also striking out 181 times.
Make no mistake, those 181 strikeouts did not come when pitchers were challenging him. On pitches in the center of the strikezone, Howard batted .647, .361 on pitches middle-in, and .353 mid-level on the outer half of the plate. And on fastballs, regardless of location, Howard batted .343. If pitchers challenged Howard, he made them pay, no doubt about it.
But when a pitcher threw a curve or a slider, such as when he is pitching around Howard, Howard batted around .240. And on pitches high out of the strikezone? Howard chased 40% of the time.
I firmly believe Howard was deserving of his MVP title and I can not wait to witness even more feats of strength in 2007. But at the same time, I do not believe Howard is a pillar of patience at the plate. He will swing at bad pitches if he sees enough of them, which is why someone has to protect Howard in the lineup, ready to make the opposing team pay for not throwing Howard strikes.
The perception also exists that because Pat Gillick has received headlines for his pursuit of sluggers this offseason, he is neglecting the Phillies' need for pitching. This isn't true either -- Gillick has said many times publicly that pitching and defense wins championships. But at the same time, Gillick does not believe offering exhorbanant contracts to free agent pitchers is a reliable way to spend money. Instead, he is pursuing hitters because their performance is more predictable and hopes to address pitching either internally or through trades.
In addition, the reasoning behind replacing Pat Burrell goes beyond lineup protection, it also has to do with defense. Burrell was one of the worst defensive left fielders in baseball last year, and so an upgrade in defense will in turn help pitching to a degree without even adding a pitcher.
Gillick's strategy appears to be sound, it's just a matter of being able to execute it at this point.
Update: Further discussion on the topic here.
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