David Pinto brings up a good point: we might be paying to much attention to who bats behind Ryan Howard as opposed to who bats in front of Ryan Howard when it comes to his protection.
Is it really possible to find such a player? Think about it, how many players are out there that you would say, "We better pitch to Howard, because X is coming up." Albert Pujols? Manny Ramirez?
It seems to me that a some point a player is so good that no one can protect him. Just look at Ruth and Gehrig. Do you really think, given the choice, that most pitchers would take Gehrig over Ruth? We don't have intentional walk numbers from that era, but Gehrig's 23 grand slams point in the direction of Ruth getting walks a lot in front of Lou.
My opinion is the best protection for a hitter is a man on first. Teams are not likely to walk a batter to move a runner into scoring position. In other words, Chase Utley's OBA is the best protection Ryan gets.
As a matter of fact, of Howard's 37 intentional walks in 2006, 4 came with Chase Utley on first base. One also came with David Dellucci on first base, and five more came with Shane Victorino on first base. That's ten times Howard was intentionally walked with a man on first base.
All in all, Howard drew 37 walks with a man on first base in 250 plate appearances in 2006. To put that in perspective, overall Howard walked every 6.52 plate appearances and with a runner on first he walked every 6.75 plate appearances.
So, it appears that having a man on first offers some protection for Howard, but not a whole lot. And as Pinto asks, is there anyone that can change those numbers?
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Incidentally, you can't blame opposing managers and pitchers for treading lightly around Howard. Here's a breakdown of Howard's slugging percentage by baserunner scenario:
Base Slg% IBB PA - - - .673 3 346 1 - - .829 5 135 - 2 - .375 13 59 - - 3 .278 5 26 1 2 - .662 2 83 1 - 3 .389 3 29 - 2 3 .800 6 13 1 2 3 .583 0 13
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