When baseball big wigs congregate today in Naples, Florida, for the general manager's meetings, the Phillies are expected to make a sizable offer to Alfonso Soriano. The reason for the Phillies interest in the right-handed slugger with speed is to find protection in the lineup for Ryan Howard.
Many are taking a look at Ryan Howard's production and the Phillies' runs scored total in 2006 and are skeptical about the Phillies offseason strategy. After all, wasn't a lack of pitching the major reason the Phillies fell short of the playoffs for the thirteenth time in a row? In other words, isn't going after another hitter rather than a starting pitcher almost like putting a new roof on your house when termites are disintegrating your first floor?
As of now, the Phils have only four starting pitchers in the fold, and a vacancy sign remains in the bullpen for at least three slots, including an experienced eighth inning set-up man to support closer Tom Gordon. Therefore, wouldn't it make more sense for the Phillies to pursue Barry Zito or Jason Schmidt rather than another hitter? Not necessarily.
Believe it or not, by pursuing protection for Ryan Howard -- a genuine need, albeit less of a need than pitching, general manager Pat Gillick is thinking several moves ahead as he plans his next move. Gillick has forgotten more baseball than most of us will ever know, and so he realizes like the rest of us that the Phillies will need more pitching. But he also knows that free agent pitchers are one of the most unreliable commodities on which to spend money.
Think about these recent free agent signings: Matt Clement, Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett, Kevin Millwood, Jaret Wright, Esteban Loaiza, Matt Morris, Jon Lieber, Russ Ortiz, Pedro Martinez... For various reasons, ranging from injury to incompetency, all have struggled to live up to the contracts they signed. Predicting a pitcher's future value is difficult at best.
Free agent hitters on the other hand, are much more predictable. Think Manny Ramirez, Miguel Tejada, Gary Sheffield, Carlos Delgado, Jim Edmonds, Jim Thome, and for the most part, Alex Rodriguez. Year in, year out, you know what you are going to get from them. Pitchers are not that way at all.
So when you hear that the Phillies have offered Alfonso Soriano more money per year than most of us make in our entire lifetimes, don't think for a second Pat Gillick doesn't realize the Phillies need pitching. He knows it, but he also knows that free agency isn't the way to build a rotation.
To build an effective staff, you need both quantity and quality, because inevitably, someone is going to fall to injury or become inconsistent. Or both. Because of this, it becomes much to expensive to go through free agency.
In this case, patience is a virtue. Wait for young, inexpensive pitchers to develop in the minor leagues, letting the best percolate and rise to the top. Think Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ, Carlos Carrasco, Zack Zegovia, Scott Mathieson, and Gio Gonzalez.
Make no mistake, many of those kids probably won't ever become full-time members of the Phillies rotation. But if they don't, it's a much costly mistake than
