Everyone -- except for perhaps David Montgomery ["we don't necessarily have holes to fill"] -- inside and outside of the Phillies agrees that there are certain things the club needs to check off their to-do list this off-season for the team to become widely accepted as a World Series contender.
These items include: another solid-to-good starting pitcher, at least one, hopefully two, dependable bullpen types, a third baseman, and, if Pat Burrell is traded [to San Francisco?], an outfielder with some pop.
As for the outfield, the Phillies are said to be eying Alfonso Soriano, and are negotiating with Randy Wolf to retain him as a starting pitcher. But where the Phillies priorities lay at third base are another story. Aramis Ramirez has been discussed, but the level of interest in him by the Phillies varies from report to report. Also causing discrepancies among the local media reports are how much the Phillies are considering making a run at Akinori Iwamura, age 27, of the Yakult Swallows in Japan's Nippon Baseball League.
The thought of Iwamura is at first quite enticing -- obtaining a slick-fielding, power-hitting Japanese player has a certain exotic and savvy ring to it. And, there is some statistical reason to think Iwamura would be an upgrade over Abe Nunez at third base.
Jim Albright of BaseballGuru.com has done some of the better work extrapolating Japanese baseball statistics into Major League Baseball equivalencies. In 2006, Iwamura posted a .311 batting average, .388 on-base average, .543 slugging percentage and 32 home runs and 77 runs batted in over 615 at bats. After you send those numbers through Albright's slide rules and protractors, Iwamura can be expected to produce at a .298/.357/.475 level with 20 home runs in the bigs.
Given that Nunez rallied in September just to get to .211/.303 /.273, Iwamura could be quite an improvement, to say the least.
But there is more to it than that. For one, Iwamura is only 5'9'', 176 pounds. Not exactly a slugger's build as we know it on this side of the Pacific. Second, Iwamura bats left handed. The Phillies need someone who can protect Ryan Howard, or someone who can bat right handed to break up their two left handed stars, Howard and Chase Utley, not someone who makes their lineup even more left side heavy.
All of this and we haven't even gotten to the money yet. Just in order to earn the rights to negotiate with Iwamura, the Phillies will have to pay a tribute of sorts to the Swallows, almost like Henry Hill having to kick upstairs to Paulie. And this is no small tribute, we are talking 8, 9, or 10 million dollars. If and when the Phils get exclusive rights to negotiate with Iwamura after the posting process, it's estimated that he will command a salary of roughly $24 million over three years.
In summary, that comes out to the equivalent of $11 million per year. That's Chipper Jones or David Ortiz type money.
It seems like a lot of money for a player that might perform well in the big leagues (ask the Mets how Kaz Matsui turned out) and who doesn't quite fit into the Phillies lineup.
Reportedly, the Phillies are also considering Wes Helms and Mark DeRosa as fall back options if things do not work out with Iwamura or Aramis Ramirez. In other words, low-risk, low-ceiling (but still an improvement over Nunez), and low-cost, versus high-risk, high-ceiling, and high-cost...
...In Gillick we trust.
