In Sunday's entertaining game against
the Dallas Cowboys, the victorious Philadelphia Eagles were crushed
in time of possession, holding the ball for just 23 of the game's 60
minutes. Rarely did the Eagles have the ball for very long, their
longest scoring drive being just six plays.
Andy Reid has always engineered his Philadelphia teams to play this way, to go for the gusto early and often, but even more so in recent years. As Donovan McNabb's passing skills have improved and offensive weapons such as Brian Westbrook and a certain ex-receiver have been added to the mix, Reid has been able to put pedal to the metal with regularity on Sunday afternoon.
But this strategy drives football purists and Reid's critics crazy. The classic football teams of the past are known for offenses that looked to control the ball for as much of the game as possible by making the running game a priority and passing only when longer yardage is needed.
In the past, that was probably the best way to run an offense. But in today's NFL, that isn't necessarily the best way to do things. Says Reid, “It's not like basketball where you play the four-corner deal...When and if you can score in the NFL, you want to get as many points up there as you can.”
Passing, passing, and then passing the ball some more may be football's version of baseball's “Moneyball” tactics, finding weaknesses in the system or sports and exploiting them to your advantage. A recent study published in the Journal of Qualitative Analysis in Sports by Benjamin Alamar (who coincidentally, is quoted frequently in Michael Lewis' new book, The Blind Side) entitled, “The Passing Premium Puzzle” examines the historical trends in professional football over time. What Alamar found is that while the average number of yards per running play has remained relatively constant from 1960 through 2005, right around 4.0 yards, yards per passing play has increased from 4.66 to 5.8. At the same time, completion rates have significantly increased while interception rates have significantly decreased.
Alamar concludes the article with this:
The data on the passing premium indicate a clear advantage (that has grown over time) to the passing game with little change in the frequency in which teams use the pass. The existence of the passing premium indicates that teams should pass more frequently and that coaches, as a group, are not acting rationally when they run as much as they pass.
That's not to say there aren't trade-offs to a team passing the ball to excess. The element of surprise is certainly decreased and there is no doubt your quarterback -- the most valuable commodity in all of football -- is placed in harm's way more often.
Reid also realizes that this means his defense is on the field more and more often. But don't forget, the Eagles have an very deep defensive line. Says Reid's defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, who runs a unit that is allowing the third lowest points per play defended in the NFL [Courier-Post/Roberts]:
We appreciate what they do...We know what our offense can do. That's the nice thing about having two defensive lines. We can rest those people more. We expect (the Eagles offense) to score, and score fast. Yeah, that gets us back on the field, and that's fine.
Hmm. It's almost like Reid and the Eagles know what they are doing or something.
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Post-script: Once the Eagles lost to the Saints a couple of days after I wrote this, I thought I was a bit to hasty, or messed with karma in some way. But this post at the Iggles Blog, "Ball Control is a Two-Sided Coin", I was reminded that my post was right on track, at least until I talked up the Eagles D.
