The more offseasons and spring trainings change, the more they stay the same:
Phillies record after April, 2005: 10-14
Phillies record after April, 2006: 10-14
When considering the Phillies playoff chances, there are several ways to look at this win-loss record:
The optimist: "Hey, they ended up missing the playoffs by just one game last year, if they get hot this year like they did last year, they can definitely make the playoffs."
The pessimist: "Boooo! They only have a 4.6% probability of making the playoffs."
Most of us fall somewhere in the middle of those two ends of the spectrum and if you are like me, you'll study the team and the league a little bit to figure out just where the Phillies fit into the playoff picture (as fuzzy as it is on May 1st).
In the National League, the Phillies are tied for 11th in runs scored and tied for thirteenth in runs allowed. The team OPS is .754 while the league OPS is .763. As for the pitching, the team's ERA is 5.74, while the league average is 4.88.
Many will point to the Phillies fielding along with the pitching as a reason for the high runs allowed total. While the team's pitchers are still allowing line drives at an high rate, and no team can catch those consistently, there is some truth to the fact that the team's defense is a shell of what it was last year. According to The Hardball Times, which uses the plus/minus system which is used by several teams and was first published in The Fielding Bible, the Phillies defense ranks dead last in the National League by a wide margin.
If you are like me, all of this pushes you towards the pessimistic side of the scale. But what pushed me over into full-fledged pessimism was when the April 2005 Phillies schedule is compared with the April 2006 Phillies schedule. In 2005, the Phillies faced, in order of series, the Nationals, Cardinals, Marlins, Braves, Mets, Rockies, Braves, Nationals, Marlins. That was a fairly strong schedule at the time. The Nationals started off 2005 on fire, the Cardinals were the best team in the NL, the Marlins had not yet sold off the entire roster for cash and prospects, and the Braves were the Braves.
In 2006 however, the schedule that resulted in another 10-14 record was much, much softer. In order of series: Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves, Rockies, Nationals, Marlins, Rockies, Pirates. Again, the Cardinals are the best team in the NL, but the Dodgers are 12-13, the Rockies are off to a nice start, but they are the Rockies after all, the Nationals are not off to the start they had last year, the Marlins roster has a salary less than some players make and the Pirates are the worst team in all of baseball, yet the Phillies still only managed to go 1-2 against them.
Every fan at some point in a long baseball season, has serious doubts about his team, maybe even threatens weakly to not watch them play anymore games. But if you are a Phillies fan, they sure do make it hard to hang in there.
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Balls, Sticks, & Stuff was named "Featured Blog of the Week" at PhillyFuture.org. If this is your first time here, feel free to stop in and check out the Highlight Reel. I apologize, those are my best efforts.
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