The Jimmy Rollins Project

The Difference

If one were to take a poll amongst those that follow the Philadelphia Phillies and ask what two factors will have the greatest impact on how the team fares in 2006, one will most likely get two predominant answers.  First, the quality of the team’s pitching, and second, how well Jimmy Rollins sets the table for those that follow him with their powerful bats.

No matter who bats third, fourth, or fifth in the lineup – Bobby Abreu, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, or Ryan Howard – they will certainly be more productive if Rollins, the team’s lead-off hitter can get on base more often.

For the first three-quarters of the season in 2005, Rollins struggled mightily, and it was reflected in the Phillies record. From the first game on April 4^th through August 22^nd, Rollins batted .262/.304/.378, and the Phillies had a .532 winning percentage.

Then, on August 23^rd, in the ninth inning, the Phillies were up big and in his sixth plate appearance of the game and his 556^th of the season, Rollins got a 2-0 count and laced a double to centerfield off of Giant’s pitcher Brian Cooper. From then on, Rollins was a different batter. He would go on to bat .290/.338/.431 for the season, .379/.440/.602 during the streak, and fuel the Phils to a .583 winning percentage the rest of the way, falling short of the playoffs by one game.

Interestingly, 75.1% of Rollins plate appearances in 2005 came before August 23rd, and 24.9% after the streak started. If Rollins had performed the same before and after August 23^rd, his statistical totals for the season would be relatively similar, i.e. three-quarters of his homeruns, triples, doubles, etc. would have been pre August 23^rd, one-quarter afterwards. But as you can see from the table [click to enlarge], there are several significant differences.

 

Interestingly, Rollins did not change his strikeout rate or homerun rate once the streak started, but he did decrease his groundball rates and pop-up rates. What Jimmy did increase was his walk and doubles rates.

The fact that Rollins’ increased his walk and doubles rates after the streak started suggests that, besides a employing a better swing, he also had a better feel for the strike-zone and knew what pitches he could drive and couldn’t drive, a bugaboo throughout his career.  Additionally, pre-streak Rollins averaged 3.31 pitches per plate appearance and 3.71 afterward -- further evidence that Rollins was more selective.

There is no doubt Rollins was a better batter before the streak started and after, but the question becomes, what made him a better batter? According to Rollins, it was a change in his batting technique. In a recent article focusing on Rollins and the streak, he told Jayson Stark of ESPN.com, "Some days, I'd take BP, and I'd be horrible. But I'd be, 'That's OK. I've got to just go into that cage and take my one-hand drill."  The drill, according to Rollins is designed to "keep his hands inside the ball."

Sounds reasonable. Often a new swing key can send a player on a hot streak for a time, but is that all there is to it? Simply keeping his hands inside the ball? Does this mean that if Rollins can keep his hands inside the ball on every at-bat until he retires, his name will by synonymous with Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams?

In the book Golf is Not a Game of Perfect, sports psychologist Bob Rotella counsels that a streak is just a glimpse of an athlete's true potential....Is the type of hitter Jimmy Rollins became on August 23, 2005 his true potential?  As is usually the case in sports, time will tell.

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When He Hit Them

One of the most frustrating thing to Phillies fans is the way Rollins' often approaches at-bats.  We think of lead-off hitters as players who should get deep into counts, not only in order to get a good pitch to hit, but also to force the pitcher to display his entire repertoire.

Again, breaking things down as percentages pre- and post-beginning of the streak, we see that Rollins' plate appearances ended (positively or negatively) on 3-2 counts at a higher rate after August 22nd and less often on 0-0 counts. [Click table to enlarge.]

Before the streak, he put the ball in play 187 times when there were more balls than strikes, or 34% of the time.  Post-streak, he put the ball in play 74 times, or 41% of the time.  A small, but statistically significant increase (at least one standard deviation above).

Below is a graphic that displays how deep into counts Rollins went for the entire season as a whole.  He averaged 3.42 pitches per plate appearance in 2005.

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Where He Hit Them

Given the significant change in performance, it is logical to wonder if Rollins began to pull the ball more, or, did he take pitches and "go the other way" with them more often.  First, we broke the field down into thirds -- left side, middle, and right side.

Pre Streak
To the left side    120/550, or 21.8%
To the middle       217/550, or 39.5%
To the right side   103/550, or 18.7%

Post Streak
To the left side    26/182, or 14.3%
To the middle       55/182, or 30.2%
To the right side   55/182, or 30.2%

Percentage Change
To the left side    Down 35%
To the middle       Down 25%
To the right side   Up 61%

However, Rollins is a switch hitter, so knowing the location of his balls put into play does not tell as much about whether or not he changed his style of hitting.  The table below [click to enlarge] gives one a better idea of whether Rollins was pulling the ball more often or not.

As it turns out, it appears that Rollins prefers to hit the ball to the right side of the field, regardless of what side of the plate he is hitting from.  Coincidentally, Rollins' hit on opening day to extend the streak to 37 games in a row was, you guessed it, down the right field line.

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Trivia

- When Rollins' swung and hit the 3-0 pitch in Monday's season opener, it was the first 3-0 pitch he has made contact with in his career.

- On Monday, Rollins extended the streak to 37 games.  During that time, he has needed his final plate appearance in a game to extend the streak 8 times.

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Credits

This analysis could not have been completed without the excellent book Baseball Hacks by Joseph Adler and the efforts of BS&S.com regular reader Michael Harmanos.  Harmanos was born and raised in the Wyoming Valley, PA, a devout Phils fan (even with a Yankee fan for a father) and now makes his home in Orange County, CA.

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