So on the way home from work yesterday [no seriously, I really am gainfully employed], I realized that we were out of milk. I stopped at the store, went to the refrigerator section, swung open a door, grabbed a carton, and noticed the "Missing" campaign on the back was featuring... the Eagles running game [insert drum snare here].
Through six games this season, the Eagles are calling pass plays almost three out of every four plays. And when Andy Reid does manage to flip to the back of the playbook where he has stuffed in a cocktail napkin with "sweep right" and a couple of lines scribbled on it (it also has a ring left by a Michelob Ultra bottle on it...in case you haven't heard, he's lost a lot of weight), the team averages a scant gain of 3.4 yards, which ranks 26th in the NFL.
At one point in Sunday's game against the San Diego Chargers, the Eagles ran [un-pun unintended] twenty-five consecutive pass plays...and they were ahead on the scoreboard that the time! Donovan McNabb attempted fifty-four passes in a game that the Eagles led most of the way. Perhaps the best jab at Reid's offense came from Bill Conlin, who wrote, "There is no truth to the rumor that former Phillies pitching coach Joe Kerrigan called and asked if McNabb was on a pitch count."
To be fair to Reid, the NFL game is much more pass oriented than ever before, and, the Eagles have been playing from behind in many of their games this year. Plus, there is data compiled by FootballOutsiders.com that shows that winning teams rarely "establish the run"' early in the ballgame, and really only run late in the game when they've compiled a lead. As a matter of fact, in 2002, the Eagles ranked first in the NFL in 4th quarter rushing attempts, a characteristic highly correlated with winning teams.
Yes, the Eagles need to run the ball with greater frequency, but Reid is right in neglecting to establish the run early -- points come off passing early. So, the first step in establishing a better running game might just be to complete more passes early in the game.
While running the ball might be a bit overrated (except for the fourth quarter), there are other times it's worthwhile, such as on short yardage situations. In these scenarios, FootballOutsiders.com tells us that when just one yard is needed for a first down, running plays are successful 71% of the time, while passing plays move the chains just 53% of the time.
Perhaps it would have been useful knowledge for Reid when late in Sunday's contest he called a pass play to Lamar Gordon (9 catches all year) on 4th and 1. And wasn't Gordon acquired by the Eagles just for short-yardage situation runs?
If in their next game the Eagles manage to create a significant lead in the fourth quarter and Reid neglects to run the ball then, well, call the authorities. In that case, something more than just the running game is missing, it's Reid's common sense.
