When a baseball team is in the offseason, with no game action to watch, follow, and analyze, rumors can spread like weeds in Terrell Owens's lawn.
One rumor that's been reported, specifically in San Francisco's Chronicle, is that before the Oakland Athletics re-hired Ken Macha as manager (long story), Larry F. Bowa was on the short-list to fill the opening. Upon hearing that rumor, the best response is to slowly roll your eyes and say, "Yeah right."
Bowa derides Moneyball and sabermetrics on XM Radio with such frequency and passion that one could almost assume that even keeping score might be too "stathead" for him. And so to think that he would be a candidate for a job with the team that was the subject of Moneyball is a giant leap of the imagination. Billy Beane, the general manager of the A's, and Bowa might be friends, and Bowa may have expressed some level of interest, but there is no way Bowa was ever a real candidate.
Another rumor that is circulating is that the Phillies and the Seattle Mariners are discussing a deal that would send Jim Thome and David Bell to the Mariners for third-baseman Adrian Beltre. Determining the veracity of this rumor is more difficult, but one thing is for certain, that is a bad, bad, bad trade for the Phillies.
Over the next four years, Beltre is owed $47 million dollars, whereas over the next three years, Thome and Bell are owed $48.5 million dollars combined. So, speaking strictly financially, the Phillies would save about $1.5 million. Big money to you and me, but "Monopoly" money to a major-league baseball franchise over the course of three or four years..
Speaking strictly in terms of baseball, the trade is awful for the Phillies. Sure, David Bell would be off the roster -- addition by subtraction -- and the path would be cleared for everyday play in 2006 for Ryan Howard. But in return, the Phillies would receive an even worse contract than the ones they are trying to shed.
Adrian Beltre became a major leaguer on June 24, 1998, at the tender age of 19. From that game through the completion of the 2003 season, Beltre batted .262 with an OPS of .748 and averaged 17 homeruns and 64 RBI per season.
Then, in 2004, Beltre found his stroke, and burst out with a batting average of .334 (4th in the NL), 1.017 OPS (5th), 48 HR (1st), and 121 RBI (4th). Suddenly, the great things that had been predicted for Beltre several years earlier were finally coming to fruition. And it could not have come at a better time as Beltre was entering free agency. After a bidding war between the Dodgers and the Mariners, Beltre was off to Seattle with a five-year $65 million contract in tow. Theoretically he was off and running.
But 2005 was not as kind to Beltre as 2004 had been. As a matter of fact, his 2005 looked very similar to the first part of his career. By the time the year was over (a full season of at-bats, no serious injuries), Beltre had accumulated just 19 HR and 87 RBI from a batting average of .255 and an OPS of .716.
So essentially, after 1,122 games played, Beltre has had seven barely average seasons and one spectacular season. I think it's safe to say that makes Beltre an average player getting paid like a superstar, someone who got captured lightning in a bottle at just the right time -- his walk year.
For the Phillies to accept this trade, something else would have to be added to Beltre to make it worth the Phillies while. While little improvement is likely for Bell in 2006, the chance exists that Jim Thome could be a very, very good player again if he can remain healthy. To me, the chances of Thome rebounding are a lot better than the chances of Beltre recapturing the lightning in a bottle from 2004.
Let's hope the talk of this trade ends when the tenure of the new Phillies general manager begins.
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Speaking of T.O.'s lawn, maybe one of these guys can take over. Seriously though, who knew a year of bad luck could get you canned from being a golf course superintendent the same way it can for coaches and managers of sports teams?
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We've heard a lot of talk about how the Eagles have ten million dollars under the salary cap, but may have been better off to spend the money for added roster depth. On the surface it seems like a good idea, but history shows that the Eagle often enter a season well under the cap and then expend most of it during the season on prudent contract extensions. According to Bob Brookover in Sunday's Inqy, the Eagles have finished every season since 2002 with less than $100,000 under the salary cap.
