Link: Beerleaguer: Black Hole featured on Daily News Live.
At around 6:45 PM or so on Tuesday night, reclined in my living room chair with a beverage and a bag of chips at my side while watching Daily News Live on Comcast Sportsnet on my DVR, I suddenly blurted out with a half full mouth, "Hey! I know those guys!" [chips and Coke spraying everywhere]
Phaithful Phlogosphere reader "George S" has been referring in many a comment section about the Phillies abysmal record when David Bell and Mike Lieberthal bat back-to-back in the Phillies lineup, a combination he refers to as "The Black Hole":
I saw the Black Hole in June, and I have tracked it ever since. Here is the data after today's game. (apologies for the formatting)
Neither=Neither Bell or Lieberthal start.
Either=One or the other starts.
Split=They both start, but do not bat consecutively in the batting order.
BHole=They both start and bat consecutively in the order.Here are the results, which includes W-L record and RPG:
Neither (5-0) (6.60 RPG)
Either (19-14) (5.06 RPG)
Split (15-11) (5.27 RPG)
BHole (19-29) (3.75 RPG)Team (58-54) (4.62 RPG)
I think it's pretty clear. The Phillies are 10 games under .500 when the BH is present. They score 1.5 fewer runs with the BH lineup. You have to wonder about CM, since he must know this.
But here's something I found even more interesting and puzzling. How do Bell and Lieberthal do individually in the above situations? I only used three categories: The BHole lineup and the batting average of the two of them combined; When they are split up, using the BA of the two of them combined; and when one of them plays, using the BA of whichever of them played. Here's what you get:
BHole (combined .197 BA)
Split (combined .262 BA)
Either (combined .302 BA)
After reading such damning information, it is natural to come up with your own theories about the best way to rectify the situation. Here's my attempt at a less dysfunctional lineup:
vs. RHP's:
Kenny Lofton - CF - LHB - As Bill Conlin said on DNL, he is one of the best lead-off hitters of the past two decades.
Jimmy Rollins - SS - SHB - J-Roll has a decent batting average with men on base, plus he is a good bunter in case small ball is appropriate to move Lofton over.
Chase Clutchly - 2B - LHB
Bobby Abreu - RF - LHB
Pat Burrell - LF - RHB
Ryan Howard - 1B - LHB - Jim Thome can easily slide in and out of this spot as match-ups warrant.
Tomas Perez - 3B - SHB - Not much better than David Bell versus right-handed pitchers, but at least he is above the "Mendoza Line".
Mike Lieberthal - C - RHB - Should Todd Pratt get the start, he should bat 7th with Tomas Perez batting eighth.
Pitcher du Jour
vs. LHP's:
Jason Michaels - CF - RHB - .500 OBP against LHP's, plus he can run just enough to be a scoring threat.
David Bell - 3B - RHB - While he's awful against righties, he does hit around .400 vs. LHP's. An alternative would be to swap Rollins and Bell in this lineup.
Bobby Abreu - RF - LHB
Pat Burrell - LF - RHB - .932 OPS vs. LHP's. He rakes.
Mike Lieberthal - C - RHB - Seriously. He has an .890 OPS vs. LHP this year, which is almost exactly the same as 2002-2004.
Chase Utley - 2B - LHB - He's still having trouble against lefties, but he is after all Chase Clutchly.
Ryan Howard - 1B - LHB - Like many other Phillies, LHP's give him troubles, but he just has too much power to bat eighth.
Jimmy Rollins - SS - SHB - OK Jimmy, leading off isn't working out well, do you think you can just help to roll the lineup over?
Pitcher du Jour
Creating a lineup for this team is no easy task. It's clear that Bell and Lieberthal can no longer co-exist, Jimmy Rollins just doesn't fit the lead-off role (other than the fact that he has speed), too many batters have large splits, and it's rare that a batter has both patience at the plate and bat control.
Other than all that, it's a great offense Ed and Ruben, great offense.
[Oh, and George S, an account at Blogger is free. I'm just sayin'.]
