Second-Guessing Manuel

Too Early to Pinch-Hit

Last night, after yet another lengthy rain-delay for the Phillies, The Lieberbattery engaged with Pedro Martinez and whoever his catcher was in a great pitcher's duel for seven-and-a-half innings, which resulted in a tie score, 1-1.

During the top of the seventh inning, the Phillies had a little rally going, managing to score their only run (due to some aggressive base-running by Chase Utley, who was on third-base, on a ball that was hit weakly to the third-baseman...Utley took off for home when the fielder threw to first-base).  However, with two outs and a runner on second, Charlie Manuel elected to pinch-hit for Jon Lieber in an attempt to break the 1-1 tie.  Jose Offerman, the pinch-hitter failed to drive the run in, and Terry Adams was brought in to face the Mets in the bottom of the inning.

Adams then proceeded to give up a single, a walk, and then a home-run to Carlos Beltran, making it 4-1, Mets.  Manuel waited for Adams to give up a single to the next batter, Cliff Floyd, before pulling Adams in favor of Geoff Geary.  Geary then proceeded to let several more Mets reach base and when it didn't look like they would score, he threw a wild pitch, allowing Floyd to come home.  5-1 Mets and the Phillies never sniffed a scoring opportunity again.

Readers of this space know that I am a fan of Charlie Manuel.  But I am not so delusional to think he is infallible, and I can't help but wonder if last night's outcome would have been different if Manuel had chosen not to pinch-hit for Lieber in the seventh.

When Lieber was removed, he had thrown only 78 pitches (66% strikes), had allowed eight base-runners, and only one run.

Given the way Lieber was pitching last night and the way he has pitched all season long, I think it is very reasonable to assume that the Phillies stood a better chance of winning the game with Lieber pitching in the bottom of the seventh with a 1-1 tie (assuming he didn't drive the runner in from second himself, which I think is also reasonable) than they did otherwise.

Let's face it, the Phillies bullpen is quite bad right now.  Handing them a tie game in the bottom of the seventh and expecting them to hold it and get nine more scoreless outs from the opposition is unrealistic.  I certainly see the temptation to drive that runner in from second, because in a pitcher's duel, every run is precious.  But, when you remove Lieber for Terry Adams...well, it's not a pitcher's duel anymore is it?

Had there been only one out when Lieber was removed, I would be on board with the decision.  If the Phillies bullpen was mowing people down left and right, I would have been on board.  If it was the eighth inning, I'd be on board.  But none of those were the case.

I realize pinch-hitting for Lieber was the "by the book" thing to do, but I think it is more important to manage to your roster than to "the book".

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If it makes you feel any better...

...it could have been worse.

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A little more second-guessing of Manuel...

...It's time to end the second-base platoon of Utley and Placido Polanco.  Utley is performing very well at the plate (.881 OPS, albeit against exclusively right-handed pitching), Polanco is performing tolerably, and David Bell has a .568 OPS.

With Jim Thome out of the lineup and/or slumping, the Phillies just can not afford to have so many poor batters in the lineup every night.

Give Utley a chance against left-handed pitching, what's the worse that can happen, score one run every night? Oh wait, that happens a lot now...