Disclaimer: Balls, Sticks, & Stuff does not pretend that this is the best way to predict the outcome of the 2005 NL East. It's just another way of looking at it. Nor is it an April Fool's Day prank. Nor should you take these results and go to BoDog.com.
Now that we have the disclaimers out of the way, and I've hopefully adjusted everyone's expectations, let's take a look at what appears to be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. First, lets take a look at the 2004 NL East final standings:
Team 2004 W-L Record Braves 96-66 Phillies 86-76 Marlins 83-79 Mets 71-91 Expos 67-95
Next, we'll take a look at how many win shares each team gained and/or lost in the offseason due to significant offseason roster moves and -- as best as can be estimated -- the effect of injuries on playing time for significant players (this might be a good time to go back and read the disclaimer again). I've excluded the Nationals as they are unlikely to be a factor in the division. I'm thrilled baseball is back in our nation's capital, but I think everyone can agree they are unlikely to challenge the other four teams in the division.
Team Net +/- Win Shares Braves +18 Phillies +38 Marlins +24 Mets +57
And, since every three player win shares equals approximately one team win, we can hypothetically adjust the 2004 standings to "predict" the 2005 outcome...
...Cue the drum roll...
Team Predicted W/L 2005 Braves 102-60 Phillies 99-63 Marlins 91-71 Mets 90-62 Nationals 75-87???
As best as I could, I attempted to give players like Vicente Padilla, Randy Wolf, A.J. Burnett, Josh Beckett, Pedro Martinez, Marcus Giles, John Smoltz, etc., the benefit of the doubt in their ability to stay healthy and have full seasons. Should any of these players, or other significant players for that matter, go down for any length of time, their respective teams will surely be affected.
This little win shares-experiment certainly has it's flaws, but I think the take home message is that assuming everyone stays healthy (again, check the disclaimer), the division should be a pretty tight race between the Phillies and Braves for first and the Marlins and Mets duking it out for second.
-----------------
Related Article on the 2005 NL East:
- B.S. & S.: "Prediction: 91 Wins for the Phightins in 2005" [Jan. 11, 2005]
- All-Baseball.com's NL East Preview featuring Mr. Shallow Center.
