Link: ESPN.com - MLB - Jayson Stark: Now or never:
The most puzzling team in baseball has won more games over the last two seasons than the Angels.
The most puzzling team in baseball scored more runs last year than five of the eight playoff teams.
The most puzzling team in baseball has a higher payroll than the Cardinals, Cubs or Dodgers.
And here we are, nearly a month into another season, and the puzzle continues for the Philadelphia Phillies, a team that's tougher to make sense of than Donald Trump's comb-over.
It really is a baffling team to me. This may sound like Joe Crabbyphan sitting on a barstool at Rocky's Corner Tavern, but it really seems like the team performs well only when it doesn't count.
Take a look at some of the other facts Stark cites:
...they're hitting .232 with runners in scoring position. They have the lowest average in baseball in the late innings of close games (.200). And their pitching staff has a 7.93 ERA with runners on base.
In the medical profession, when seemingly routine cases are botched, they are presented and published for all the best minds in the field to scrutinize. Questions are asked such as, "How did this happen? What set of circumstances brought this about? Is there a way to prevent this in the future? Was anyone at fault or was an unknown variable to blame?"
I'm starting to feel that way about this team. It is very possible that someday, the guys at Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times will give this team the same kind of scrutiny that freakish medical cases receive. "How could a team with so many good players, who actually end up with great stats year after year, underachieve so much?"
What's given me faith in the Phillies through the off-season and into late-April is the numbers. Readers of the space know I think that sabermetrics holds a lot of promise for the future (and present) of baseball. But also, I'm coming to think statistics can also be just another way for a fan -- of any team, not just this one -- to find ways to believe that his team is going to be really really good this year.
In decades gone by, it was "We've got some players that I think are going to surprise some people this year." The difference today, is that while we believe we are being objective, we are really just finding some numbers we can point to in order to make us feel better about our team's chances.
To draw another analogy to the medical field, clinicians are taught to use evidence-based practices. Meaning, don't treat a patient based on your gut, what does the facts and the latest research tell you as a clinician to do? In a similar vein, it may be that for some, sabermetrics is nothing more than evidence-based faith.
Don't misunderstand, I'm not jumping off the bandwagon, I still have faith that this team will end up being there until the end in a tight NL East, but with each passing day, my faith gets just a bit weaker.
