As the mercury hovers much too close to the freezing point, let's imagine a warm summer evening spent at Citizen's Bank Park in the midst of the tightest NL East title race in years... Lager in hand, discarded peanut shells underfoot, you survey the scene before you. The sun is almost completely down, and the city skyline is beginning to faintly glow in the distance. There is a break in the action as Charlie Manuel ascends to the top of the pitchers mound, taking the ball from Jon Lieber. The staff's workhorse has just pitched seven full innings against the Marlins, but to start the eighth, he has surrendered singles to two consecutive batters, who now reside at first and second, without retiring anyone. The Phillies are ahead, 3-1, but for how much longer?
The fans, players, and coaches of each team wait to see who Manuel chooses to bring in to relieve Lieber at such a critical point in the game -- make that, season. Ryan Madson, Tim Worrell, and several others have been used the previous two evenings and are spent, leaving two other choices. You thumb through your mental statistical register to find the two pitchers' career stats:
Relief Pitcher A: 2.52 ERA, 3.82 k/bb, 12.26 k/9 IP, .87 HR/9 IP, .183 BAA
Relief Pitcher B: 4.01 ERA, 2.50 k/bb, 5.66 k/9 IP, .85 HR/9 IP, .264 BAA
And since you are a good Phillies phan, you have your opinions about which pitcher should be brought in at this juncture. Left vs. right is not a consideration as the pitcher's slot is up, and Jack McKeon, if he hasn't crystallized on the bench, is sure to pinch hit. Which pitcher would you choose to bring in, A or B?
Obviously, this rally needs to be snuffed out, and based on the numbers above, Relief Pitcher A seems to be the best choice. He is much more likely to strike out the batters he will face and much less likely to give up a hit. So, A it is.
Now, what if I told you Relief Pitcher A was Billy Wagner and Relief Pitcher B was Rheal Cormier? I'm willing to bet that in spite of the disparity in their statistics, you would probably change your answer. Your thinking most likely involves the fact that everyone knows Wagner is the closer, Cormier is a set-up man and therefore, Wagner should be reserved for later in the game, perhaps the ninth inning.
If you do prefer Cormier in this situation, you are not at all alone in your thinking. According to data published by The Hardball Times, Cormier (as well as many other set-up men) is one of the pitchers in baseball most likely to be used when the game is on the line, whereas Wagner (as well as many other closers) is typically used when the chances of his team's victory is quite high.
But wouldn't it make more sense to use Wagner now, when the situation is certainly dire, rather than bring him in to begin the ninth inning when the Marlins do not have a rally started? In other words, you could probably tolerate a hit or two in the ninth, but there is no way you can tolerate one now. Wagner is much less likely to let the two runners score than Cormier is.
Unfortunately, that is not the world in which we live. Pitchers have labels such as closer, and set-up man, and therefore, they are to be used in those roles. Speaking of roles, that is the reason most baseball-people will give you for using this system. "Pitchers in the bullpen play better when they know their roles, when they are going to be used. 'Closer-by-committee' just doesn't work." To that, I would say, "Well, why can't we call the roles 'stopper' or 'fireman' for the pitcher to be used in the tight spot, and 'closer' for the guy that finishes the game, which is still an important role, because as we all know, someone has to get those last three outs."
Undoubtedly, the doubter would say, "Yeah, but in the days of free-agency, the pitchers and agents live and die by the 'save' statistic. Incentive clauses are based on it." My counter-argument, "Wasn't the 'hold' statistic created by a player to justify a raise in salary? If stats are the only thing holding us back, lets invent one."
It is time to change the way relievers are used. There is a more efficient system and at this point the only thing preventing it from being used is a "because that's just not how it's done" mentality.
Back to our warm summer evening at the Bank...Who should Manuel bring in to the game? Wagner is the correct answer, but I wouldn't hold your Lager-laced breath.
