Regular readers of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff have probably noticed I've been listening to the new XM Radio channel, MLB At Home Plate, quite a bit since it's debut a few days ago. To this point, the hosts of the various programs have been taking a large number of calls from listeners and nearly every caller has two things to say: 1) "This new channel is great, I'm listening to it all the time!" and 2) "The [insert team name here]s are going to do quite well this year, I think [insert player name here] is going to have a big year."
The amazing thing is that everyone feels their team is at the very worst on the upswing, and at the very best, winning it all. Whether the callers are Royals fans or Yankees fans, they are brimming with positive vibes. It seems as if everyone is willing to view the glass as half-full.
Except for Philadelphia media members.
Read or listen to them, and you get the feeling that the Phillies are destined to be also-rans in the NL East. They look at the money the other teams in the division have spent to add the players they have, and concluded that the Phillies have lost ground. The Braves have Tim Hudson, the Marlins have Carlos Delgado, the Mets have Pedro Martinez, the Phillies are the Phillies, and so why should we even play the games? Regular readers of this space know that I have somehow garnered immunity from this contagion of terminal pessimism that has inflicted those that follow the Phillies; I believe that the Phillies have just as good a chance as any other team in the National League to make the playoffs.
Besides having a common theme to their comments, XM/MLB listeners also use a certain word quite a bit, "if". For instance, "If [a pitcher with a glass elbow] can stay healthy, then the [perpetual losers] should have a great year," and "If the [hapless conglomeration of replacement level players] can gel a bit and get a little chemistry, I think we can catch the [annual juggernaut]." In other words, they know that things have to fall into place for their team to do well, but they aren't ruling it out from happening before the team even takes the field. They are willing to believe it can happen. Sure, some teams have a larger number of "ifs" than others, but no matter what type of team they follow, the Yankees or the Pirates, they have faith that their team's set of "ifs" will work out just fine.
It's this sense of spring optimism that Charlie "Aka Oni" Manuel is trying to tap into when he pleads for patience -- because he knows optimism is too much to ask -- from Philly fans. Manuel implores, "After 30 or 40 games we'll be able to see what kind of team we've got...We can win it."
So what are the "ifs" Phillies phans should be focusing on? Well, there are several...
...If the starting rotation can take the team deep into games, then the Philles have a great chance. There is a strong correlation with the number of quality starts a team has with the number of wins they have. "Quality" is a relative term, because a "quality start" is defined as three earned runs over six innings. Not a tall order to accomplish once or twice, but doing it consistently is another matter. The staff's ability to do this consistently will play a significant role in determining how the season turns out for the Phightins. It will take a good mental and physical approach, but it can be done with this collection of starters. Mark my words, if the Phillies rank in the top three in the National League in quality starts on October 1, 2005, the Phillies will be playoff bound.
...If the Phillies can just relax and play loose they will contend. In the end, the buck stops with the players and they should have been able to perform in the atmosphere created by Larry Bowa over the last couple of seasons, but, I am willing to bet that nearly any collection of players would have been tight under his regime. And so, if Aka Oni's reputation is to be believed, this should not be a problem this year. By all accounts, Manuel is what they call in the industry a "player's manager", meaning he will basically say (in a soothing drawl), "OK guys, the sun over yonder is gettin' kinda low, so I reckon the game is gonna start in a couple of minutes, let's go play like the winners we are..."
...If the Phillies can stay relatively healthy, they will contend. This is an "if" every team has, and every team's hopes hinge on how fortunate they are in this regard. Sure, the Phillies will have injuries, that is the nature of a six-month, 162-game season, but the key is to not have three of five starters go down all at once (as happened in 2004) or have a season-long performance retarding injury occur to one of the key players (as happened in 2004 to Jim Thome). If a few injuries occur, the Phillies are deep enough to not miss a beat. Placido Polanco can probably be plugged in at any position on the field, except for catcher or pitcher, in a moment's notice or, if one of the starting pitchers goes down for a period, Gavin Floyd can probably be called up from Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. And let's not forget Ryan Howard. In other words, the Phillies can handle a couple of routine injuries just fine, but should the injury bug hit the way it did in 2004, phans are probably in for another year of "I told you so" from Bill Conlin.
...If the Phillies can get what they need at the July 31st trade deadline, they will have a great chance at winning the division. This "if" sort of depends upon the first three I listed. Should those "ifs" not workout, this one probably won't matter. Peter Gammons often quotes Billy Beane as saying (paraphrasing), "the first two months of the season you find out what you have, the second two months of the season you get what you need, and the last two months of the season is a race to the end." And to quote President Eisenhower, when he was General Eisenhower, "No battle plan ever survived contact with the enemy." If you look at any great team, they've had to make some kind of adjustment as the season wore on, and we shouldn't expect the Phillies to be any different. For the Phillies to win the race of the final two months of the season, Ed Wade & Co. will have to successfully address the Phillies most pressing weakness at the trade deadline, something that has proved to be beyond his reach over the last several years.
And that's it. If (pun intended) those three "ifs" work out the right way, the Phillies will do just fine in 2005. I don't know about you, but I am willing to wait at least 100 games -- not just 30 or 40 -- to see how things transpire.
Notice, I neglected to mention several other question marks that many others would point to, such as the lack of a true number one starter, the production of Pat Burrell, cutting down on the number of strikeouts in the lineup, or poor situational hitting.
Again, the team's number of quality starts are what truly matters most, and it doesn't matter how you achieve it, either by spreading them out evenly amongst all or most of the starters or having them concentrated in just two of them. To paraphrase a well-known follicularly challenged political consultant, "it's the quality starts stupid".
As for Pat the Bat and all the other questions with the the Phillies offense, they matter less than most people assume. Despite a slumping Burrell, large strikeout totals by several players, and a surprisingly low batting average with runners in scoring position, the Phillies offense has scored a large number of runs over the past couple of years, ranking near the top of the National League. The larger questions I raised above, specifically the team's ability to stay loose mentally, are actually the keys to these more popularly mentioned issues working out.
Now, put down the Inqy, turn off WIP, and believe in the Phightins, because, it's almost next year, a time when every fan should be optimistic.
