The Phillies 2004-2005 offseason, as it currently stands is generally thought to be mediocre (at best) by everyone -- bloggers, media, and average Joe Phan. And I would agree, because the Phillies front office has been less than creative this offseason. But all is not lost. Just because Ed Wade & Co. could not, did not, would not modify the manager and roster the way we would all want (and we all have our opinions), doesn't mean the team doesn't have a chance in 2005.
As I've said before, if the Phillies pitching in 2005 had been just average, the team would have fared much, much better is 2004. In the previous season, the Phillies scored 840 runs and allowed their opponents to score 781 runs (ranking 3rd and 13th out of 16 teams in the National League), which resulted in a record of 86-76, just about what we would expect, given that run differential. As others have pointed out, the Phillies defense more than held up its end of the bargain in preventing runs scored, and so, as we all know, the pitching deserves most of the blame for the total of runs allowed (of the 780 runs allowed, 723 were earned runs by the pitchers as the Phils had a team ERA of 4.45).
Now, let's assume several things:
1. The Phillies defense will perform at the same level in 2005 as it did in 2004, and earned runs/unearned runs remains at a similar ratio.
2. The Phillies offense will perform at the same level in 2005 as it did in 2004 (quite likely).
3. The Phillies pitching will perform at a level equal to middle of the pack in the National League 2005. In 2004, that would have equated to a team ERA of 4.20 or so.
Assuming those things, the Phillies could very well end up with a record of 91-71* in 2005, a record certainly possible of earning a wild card berth for the playoffs (if you are scoring at home, I took an ERA of 4.20, estimated from that 682 earned runs, added on a number of unearned runs similar to that of 2004 and you have your predicted total runs allowed: 737) . Admittedly, I've made several assumptions in my little pythagorean experiment, but I also think they are assumptions that are quite solid, given the Phillies offseason.
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* Disclaimer: Balls, Sticks & Stuff predictions are of the Food for Thought-variety and B.S. & S. should not be held responsible for any monetary losses should these predictions prove false (however I would like a cut if you make money).
