Nearly a month ago, Sabernomics posted the results of a study examining the effects of a batter on the batter that preceedes him in the lineup. In other words, Sabernomics asked the question, "Is there such a thing as protection in a baseball lineup?"
The author of Sabernomics and the study is an economics professor and therefore the post reminds me a great deal of an extended abstract of an academic journal article (and as the author himself states, "it's written for an audience of academic asshats"). The issue at hand is described, followed by a "review of the literature" - a synopsis of other studies on the topic including their respective strengths and weaknesses - followed by a hypothesis statement, a description of the methodology used in the present study, and finishing up with a discussion of the results and their meaning to the issue at hand. In this case, the author concludes that just as other studies have shown, there is no such thing as protection in a lineup. The study is tightly controlled and there is no objective reason to reject the results or the conclusions drawn from it.
But I do anyway. Yes, I've written in the past that I lean heavily towards the sabermetric school of thought, but I am not sold on the absence of protection(yet).
Let's take a subjective look at the two lineups that will take the field for the World Series tonight. Walt Jocketty's Fantasy Lineup should be frought with protection, especially when you consider the point of view of pitchers opposing that lineup. The leadoff hitter, Tony Womack, is enjoying probably the best season of his career, and I think it is reasonable to assume that some portion of credit should be awarded to the four or five sluggers that proceed him in the lineup and not to coincidence. Turning to the dugout on the other side of the diamond, the pitches that come Manny "Sometimes I Forget Which Hand the Glove Goes On" Ramirez's way are certainly influenced by Big Papi being on deck. The reason that protection exists is because the pitchers and their managers believe it exists.
I am not sure how one can objectively and/or mathematically prove the existence of protection in a baseball lineup because smarter and more dedicated people than me have obviously thoroughly examined the concept and have reached the conclusion that protection does not exist (and I couldn't applaud their efforts more). One suggestion I would have might be to somehow chart the location of pitches batters receive rather than analyzing the outcomes. But I think that one thing sabermetricians should keep in mind is that just because we can't measure a tangible effect, does not mean it doesn't exist.
